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Are Hot Days Becoming More Frequent In England?

August 5, 2016

By Paul Homewood  

 

image

https://www.theccc.org.uk/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/synthesis-report/

 

I want to take a closer look at one particular claim made in the CCC’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessment report:

 

The average number of hot days per year has been increasing since the 1960s

 

I have analysed the daily CET maximum data since 1878, looking at days which were over 29C. There are 92 of these, so it is not dissimilar to a 99th percentile.

 

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

 

It would certainly be true to say that the number of days over 29C have increased since the 1960s. But it would be equally true to say that the number has declined since the 1970s.

The statement is effectively meaningless, and certainly does us nothing about what might happen in future.

The two years which are anomalous are 1976 and 1995, and both can now be regarded as being “in the past”, rather than “current”.

Certainly since 1995, no year has had a frequency of hot days that had not occurred prior to 1976.

 

The statement by the CCC, which is headlined under their Key Messages, is grossly misleading. Worse still, in the detailed section (p34), they state the average number of hot days per year is increasing.

Note they say “IS”, and not “HAS BEEN”.

They then use this statement as a way of reinforcing their message:

High temperatures are associated with mortality and wellbeing impacts across all regions of the UK. The average number of hot days per year is increasing as is the chance of a severe heatwave – both are projected to rise further with climate change.

A more honest, and accurate, statement, that the average number of hot days per year is not increasing, would, of course, have removed any credibility from the rest of the sentence.

And that would not have done!

14 Comments leave one →
  1. Joe Public permalink
    August 5, 2016 2:17 pm

    “It would certainly be true to say that the number of days over 29C have increased since the 1960s. But it would be equally true to say that the number has declined since the 1970s.”

    Nice catch.

  2. Scott Mc permalink
    August 5, 2016 2:25 pm

    FWIW I spent 6 weeks in the UK and Ireland returning July 31st and it was generally cool to cold, people wearing coats, hats and scarves. Many days didnt even get to 20, although 1 day the news said it was over 30 but where I was in Lutin didnt get over 26. Back in Canada now and enjoying hot weather and finally wearing shorts which I love…

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      August 5, 2016 9:47 pm

      That’s OK if you’ve got the legs for it !!

  3. Derek Buxton permalink
    August 5, 2016 2:38 pm

    Who takes any notice of Krebs anyway? Was he not the microbiologist who had a Makers full stock of Blue cheese destroyed. Still, biology will never be the same!

  4. RoyHartwell permalink
    August 5, 2016 2:45 pm

    They know that most sheepsies will only read their headline and not look at the data even though it’s clearly displayed. It goes beyond belief that so-called scientists can actually make such crass statements without a tinge of conscience !

  5. BLACK PEARL permalink
    August 5, 2016 3:48 pm

    Paul you’re an absolute fact machine … keep it up

    If anyone deserves to be on the ‘peoples’ honours list ……

  6. August 5, 2016 4:29 pm

    I wonder if anyone can explain this sentence, which appeared in an article by Andrew Sims in Wednesday’s Guardian?

    “The campaign for Britain to leave the EU was related to those sceptical of action on global warming and in favour of financial deregulation.”

    Many thanks

    John W

  7. August 5, 2016 5:03 pm

    Climate spin doctors won’t give up as long as the political backing and the money are flowing in.

    ‘Certainly since 1995, no year has had a frequency of hot days that had not occurred prior to 1976’ – seems to answer the England question adequately.

  8. Tim Hammond permalink
    August 5, 2016 5:36 pm

    So if we ignore 1976, the chart shows one year with – horror – eight hot days , and the rest 1-5 days. When there’s none. What is so bad about having literally a handful of hot days each year?

  9. Billy Liar permalink
    August 5, 2016 5:45 pm

    Cold kills more people than heat. They’re focusing on the wrong thing … rather typical of climate ‘science’.

  10. Oliver K. Manuel permalink
    August 5, 2016 8:19 pm

    Steven Goddard shows extremely hot and cold days in the US both “peaked” in about ~1936. The rea

    At the end of WWII, nations and national academies of sciences were united to try to save the world from nuclear annihilation by hiding from the public the source of energy in atomic bombs – NEUTRON REPULSION.

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/08/05/omg-what-an-epic-rant/#comment-70566

  11. August 6, 2016 11:28 am

    When did “hot” become a scientific term? What is hot to you might not be to me living in the central Appalachians. OR those living in FL. If you come from a stint trapped on a ship in the Antarctic ice pack, all of our home places might seem a bit steamy.

    • Oliver K. Manuel permalink
      August 6, 2016 1:00 pm

      You are right. Use of the term “hot” shows pseudoscience.

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