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UAH Update – August 2016

September 2, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

 

 

UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2016_v6

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

 

It is now looking increasingly likely that satellite temperatures this year will end up in a virtual tie with 1998.

 

Although temperatures peaked slightly higher early this year, they have now been below 1998 levels since April.

 

image

http://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt

 

Although the 1998 El Nino event was slightly stronger, the current one has lasted much longer, and has only just returned to neutral conditions in July. This is likely to mean that temperatures will be lower by the end of the year.

 

ts.gif

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

 

Most model predictions indicate a weak La Nina beginning this autumn, but nothing like the strong event which followed 1998.

 

image

 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

Since 1998, according to Woodfortrees, satellite temperature trends have only risen by a statistically insignificant 0.003C a year, (data is up to July). This figure will drop further, as temperatures return to more normal levels in coming months.

 

trend

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/plot/uah6/from:1998/trend

8 Comments leave one →
  1. September 2, 2016 12:17 pm

    The next 3 or 4 years will determine what is happening with global temperatures, whether they stay around the current level, whether they rise, or if they begin to steadily drop. As things stand, if a strong La Nina does not happen, global temperature looks set to bump along at the current high plateau, which will mean that the Pause will probably end very soon.

    • AlecM permalink
      September 2, 2016 3:59 pm

      However, because our erstwhile leaders of climate science have made basic scientific mistakes and justified them by in some cases by blatant fraud, admitted by Hansen to an AIP rapporteur in 2000, the real story is very different.

      Since the bidirectional photon diffusion and ‘back radiation’ ideas are a bad misinterpretation of Planck’s work, CO2-AGW is kept very near zero by the water cycle. The real AGW was from another source, now being corrected for by the planet!

  2. dearieme permalink
    September 2, 2016 1:52 pm

    But even the ending of the pause would not, of itself, tell us whether any warming is anthropogenic. And that’s the big question, isn’t it? After all, modest global warming is on balance a good thing for mankind. The fear is about runaway global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels, not about a return to the climatic optimum of several millennia ago. No?

  3. Reasonable Skeptic permalink
    September 2, 2016 3:04 pm

    I am sure that others have made this comment, but when you look at the Multivariate ENSO Index it seems to track global temperatures very well. Assuming the data is not overly homogenized.

    It shows a lot of El Nina conditions from 1950-1977, then 1978 to 1999 there are a lot of El Nino’s and post 1999 it is a mixed bag until 2014.

    How is this not blindingly obvious to warmists?

  4. September 3, 2016 5:56 pm

    The wood-for-trees graph seems to show the anomaly increasing by 1.1 deg K / Century from 1980 to 2015. This is an increase of about 0.4 deg K / century over the long term average. However, analysing fluctuating values and over-belief in precision are both full of risks. It is probable that a rise of 1.1 deg K/century will be a big benefit for the world, whatever the reason for it.

  5. September 4, 2016 5:25 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

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