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UK Summer Weather Trends

September 3, 2016

By Paul Homewood


We are more than familiar with repeated projections from climate scientists of how UK summers will become much hotter and drier, and talk of killer heatwaves.

At other times, we have had Adam Scaife, of the Met Office Hadley Centre, claim that “melting Arctic ice” could lead to wetter summers here.


Neil Catto has been been collecting weather data from 28 geographically well spread stations in the UK for the last eighteen years. His findings below show that, far from the apocalyptic warnings from so called scientists, British summers, regardless of year to year variations, have changed little over the period:-






UK Summer Weather Trends

Guest Post by Neil Catto



We have heard over the summer, predictions of “scorchio” (35C) conditions from the likes of Daily Telegraph’s Peter Stanford.

We have also heard scary reports from the CCC, with Lord Krebs telling us climate change is happening now, more heat, more floods, more droughts, more storms…. and more bulls..t.

We have also heard Professor Adam Scaife telling us more scary stuff about how we should adapt to CAGW.

Has this summer been a scorcher? Has it been hotter/colder, drier/wetter, sunnier/cloudier, windier/calmer than normal?


Fig 1 shows combined daily average for June, July and August (Summer) Maximum, Minimum and average for Pressure, Temperature and Wind Speed; Average Daily sunshine, rainfall volume, rainfall duration and well being index.



Daily Averages from 24 hourly readings

18 year average (1998-2016)

Summer 2016

Maximum Pressure – mb



Minimum Pressure – mb



Average Pressure – mb



Maximum Temperature – C



Minimum Temperature – C



Average Temperature – C



Maximum Wind Speed – mph



Minimum Wind Speed – mph



Average Wind Speed – mph



Total Sunshine – hours



Total Rainfall Volume – ins



Total Rainfall Duration – hours



Well Being Index



Relative Humidity – %




For the last 18 years I have been collecting daily weather conditions (average of 24 hourly readings) from various sources for 28 locations, geographically spread throughout the UK.

Summing up the UK summer weather of 2016 in one word, AVERAGE. Talking of average, I’d like to show how the UK weather has been performing for the last 18 years.











Despite all the media reports lately, some from so called experts, I would like to know why the UK weather over the last 18 years has been uneventful. So not hotter, not colder, not stormier, not wetter, not drier just AVERAGE.

I wonder who our UK government officials listen to, when making major infrastructure decisions and spending trillions of tax payer’s money, the media, the so called experts or the facts?

  1. Billy Liar permalink
    September 3, 2016 6:34 pm

    I wonder who our UK government officials listen to, when making major infrastructure decisions and spending trillions of tax payer’s money, the media, the so called experts or the facts?

    They paid rapt attention to Senna the Soothsayer aka Prof Julia Slingo of the UKMO who constantly forecast, ‘Woe, woe and thrice woe!’

  2. September 3, 2016 8:34 pm

    Sunshine average hours per day down 10%. Did any MetO forecasts predict that?

  3. September 3, 2016 9:31 pm

    I am interested in the modes of natural climate change and this data shows variations in the temperature of the warmest and coolest months of the year in both the minimum and the maximum.

    These variations occur on less than decadal time scales. For instance there is a run up in the minimum and the maximum temperatures of the coolest and warmest months over the last six or seven years. It’s happened many times before but in the most recent years its more extreme than anything in the last seventy years. An easy place to access data is here:

    This raises the question as to what extent the UK is a proxy for the northern hemisphere as a whole. Another interesting question to explore is the extent to which the variations in these extremes are mirrored in the variations in the Arctic Oscillation Index.

    If one is seeking explanations for these short term cycles its interesting to compare surface temperature, surface atmospheric pressure, geopotential height to 200 hPa, temperature at 200 hPa and also at 500 hPa. I think you will find that each of these data streams are well correlated. Its a characteristic of the atmosphere that most of the variation in the water vapour content of the atmosphere occurs close to the surface. Above 500 hPa the temperature of the air tends to be driven by its ozone content rather than surface temperature variations. The variations in the temperature of the air aloft is much greater than at the surface. Because the water vapour content aloft is relatively invariable, when the air temperature changes aloft it affects the volume of moisture that exists in the condensed, frozen form that we see as clouds. So, I think that you will find that ultimately the variations in the winter and summer extremes are tied to the variation in cloud cover.

    Then, of course the question arises as to what is causing the variation in the ozone content of the upper air. You could then look at the work of the great Gordon Dobson who was in the forefront in terms of his investigation of the modes of natural climate change in the first half of the nineteenth century. The first thing that he noticed when he created the instrument to measure the ozone content of the air is that surface pressure and total column ozone has a 1/1 relationship. These variables rise and fall together. I go into these matters extensively at

    If we have no knowledge of the modes of natural climate variation and consider the subject of climate science as just ‘too hard’ and therefore best left to so called men of science, we will be led up the garden path by people who have great conviction but little common sense.

    • NeilC permalink
      September 4, 2016 6:01 am

      erl: I agree, until we completely understand natural climate variation and mechanisms we will be unable to understand the effect, if any, of anthropogenic impact.

  4. September 3, 2016 10:40 pm

    I would not say this summer is AVERAGE ..but it’s still not finished
    I always say the normal is out of 3 months 2 will be sunnyish and 1 month it will rain almost everyday.
    Today was a rain all day day, but we haven’t had that many this year. But then the sunny days here haven’t been that hot either. Mum just ran the fan twice when it was about 26C. I’ve worn shorts more days than my jacket. We’ve had strong winds a few times.
    The overall average for this summer seems the same but it’s cos most days have been in the middle rather that a lot of sunny days balanced by rainy rainy days.

    Still could train every day in September

    • catweazle666 permalink
      September 4, 2016 1:25 am

      Up here in the Yorkshire Dales the hill farmers reckon we get nine months winter and three months bad weather per year.

    • NeilC permalink
      September 4, 2016 5:56 am

      SG for info the meteorological summer is June, July and August.

      Spring – March, April, May
      Autumn – September, October, November
      Winter – December, January, February

  5. CheshireRed permalink
    September 4, 2016 7:30 am

    Well what a jaw-dropper! Really, who could’ve possibly noticed UK weather is bang-average and hasn’t been impacted one iota by the ‘catastrophic climate change crisis’? Well, who apart from everyone everywhere that isn’t in thrall to hand-wringing assertions of doom from Bullsh*t Central. Quick, someone tell the BBC and Guardian, after all…facts are sacred.

  6. September 4, 2016 10:31 am

    Paul more Climate Change propaganda via BBC this morning might be worth you listening to this if you haven’t already done so?..

    • NeilC permalink
      September 4, 2016 10:50 am

      Another good BBC programme now infiltrated by CAGW propaganda. I switched off after 5 mins. Why do the BBC ruin so many good programmes with it’s non scientifically verified climate nonsence. There are very few good programmes left, especially science ones. I wonder why I still pay the licence.

  7. Vernon E permalink
    September 4, 2016 5:14 pm

    We have had a glorious August here in Oxfordshire – just like the ones we used to have in Rhyl in the 1940s and 1950s when I was growing up and there was no room to squeeze a deckchair in on the beach. Plus ca change…….

  8. September 4, 2016 6:41 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

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