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The Guardian & Mann-Made Sea Level Rise

September 5, 2016

By Paul Homewood   




Latest nonsense from the Guardian:


Storm surges pushed by Hermine, the hurricane-turned tropical storm that on Sunday was moving up the US eastern seaboard, could be even more damaging than previous such surges because sea levels have risen by a foot due to global warming, climate scientists said.


Tropical Storm Hermine: rains intensify along mid-Atlantic coastline

Michael Mann of the Pennsylvania State University noted that this century’s one-foot sea-level rise in New York City meant 25 more square miles flooded during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, causing billions more in damage.

“We are already experiencing more and more flooding due to climate change in every storm,” said Michael Oppenheimer, a geosciences professor at Princeton University. “And it’s only the beginning.”


Sea levels around New Jersey and New York have been rising steadily since the late 19thC. Part of this rise is due to the land sinking; Church & White estimate this accounts for 0.88mm/year at New York, about a third of the rise.







Sea levels were rising as fast, or faster, in the middle of the 20thC, and levels have actually fallen since 2010.






There is absolutely no evidence that sea levels are rising because of AGW, which is of course the Guardian’s implication, or that building windmills or adopting world communism will make the slightest difference.

  1. Bloke down the pub permalink
    September 5, 2016 10:25 am

    The sooner the Gruaniad goes belly up, the better.

  2. RAH permalink
    September 5, 2016 10:35 am

    These people don’t even put on the pretense of attempting to be accurate. This comes hard on the heels of the National Hurricane Center declaring Hermine to be a hurricane at land fall when there was not a single buoy or weather station that recorded sustained winds of 1 minute duration averaging 74 mph or more. These things along with Obama’s theater in China are acts of desperation.

  3. William Baird permalink
    September 5, 2016 10:50 am

    What tosh.

    We can only hope that there iis public retribution when this fraud is eventually crushed.

  4. CheshireRed permalink
    September 5, 2016 11:19 am

    Everyone’s all over this article and the claims by Mann and rightly so. It’s a dubious falsehood if we’re being polite or an outright lie if we’re cutting straight to the point. As usual Paul you’ve done a surgically brilliant job of destroying the lies with oh, you know,
    observable facts. Checkmate for Mann and the G.
    The Guardian often wails about not giving false balance to both sides of the climate debate yet publishes utter rubbish such as this without a second thought. The pair of them are a disgrace to science and journalism.

  5. Marc permalink
    September 5, 2016 11:48 am

    There have been four recent studies that all came to the same conclusion. There is no detectable signal for AGW in ocean rise. It is solely due to natural causes. Four studies is enough to claim that this is settled science.

  6. dangeroosdave permalink
    September 5, 2016 11:57 am

    I’ve been studying the rise in sea level back to Euclidean times. Euclid, as some people remember proposed that the volume of a sphere, like the Earth, might be described as 4 Pie R Square. With a sphere of 25,000 miles or so circumference, and a radius of 3,979 miles, or 21,008,470 feet, or so, a volume of 5,674,351,684,221,590 cubic feet, an additional one foot of radius to MSL would require 540,196,547 CF of H2O. We’ve got about one-third solid land and two thirds ocean, so that many CF would actually raise the apparent ocean about 16 inches. A ten foot rise would require the addition to the system of 3,781,376,375 CFH2O.

    I guess most of that additional water would come from fracking.

    • September 5, 2016 2:30 pm

      4 π R² is actually the surface area, dageroosdave.

  7. September 5, 2016 12:04 pm

    Heard this morning on the news that Hermine came ashore as a Cat 1 hurricane and rapidly went downhill as it were. But with essentially no hurricane for the past 2 years, they were desperate for something. Perhaps Mann is up for promotion and needs a quick article.

    • RAH permalink
      September 5, 2016 12:24 pm


      They declared Hermine a hurricane but have yet to seen any evidence that it was at landfall.
      According to the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) own glossary:

      “Maximum Sustained Surface Wind:
      The standard measure of a tropical cyclone’s intensity. When the term is applied to a particular weather system, it refers to the highest one-minute average wind (at an elevation of 10 meters with an unobstructed exposure) associated with that weather system at a particular point in time.”

      The reason why there is confusion is because wind speeds in these storms are much higher at altitude than they are at the surface. Friction with the water or land surface greatly reduces the wind speeds recorded at the surface compared to those taken at altitude. Classification of storms are based upon wind speeds taken 10 meters above the surface.

      I watched the data from the NHC as it approached land fall and through landfall. No surface sustained wind speeds of 1 minute at 74 mph or more were recorded by any surface station or buoy and thus Hermine was not a Hurricane. The highest sustained wind speed I saw was from a buoy which showed 53 knot winds. That’s about 61 mph.

      I suspect that sooner or later the NHC will fess up as they did with Sandy.

  8. Ex-expat Colin permalink
    September 5, 2016 12:25 pm

    O/T- ish? Allo, Allo:

    “Experts warn there are huge policy decisions looming to keep Britain’s lights on.
    THE Sun can reveal the PM has hired an expert guru from British Gas owner Centrica to beef up the policy team at the heart of Downing Street – Georgia Berry”.

    Some pleasant wording in this…but?

  9. September 5, 2016 12:39 pm

    It’s all grist to the mill of the Guardian’s climate FUD machine.,_uncertainty_and_doubt

  10. Jackington permalink
    September 5, 2016 1:28 pm

    While on the subject of nonsense, The BBC gave a platform on this morning’s Today programme (c. 45mins in on iPlayer) to Labour’s Climate Change spokesman one Barry Gardner who made the claim that 99.9% of all Meteorology Scientists agree that Global Warming is caused by humans.- It’s worse than we thought!

    • CheshireRed permalink
      September 5, 2016 1:42 pm

      Humphries clearly buys hook line and sinker into the climate gibberish, didn’t question Gardner’s how assertion of a low carbon / carbon free power grid could be met and in fact didn’t challenge a single point made at all. Gardener got as soapy-smooth a ride as Keith Vaz, but without his two little helpers. Gardner sounds like an absolute nutcase.

  11. NeilC permalink
    September 5, 2016 2:37 pm

    You didn’t expect real scientific provable facts from the Graun, BBC, and MM did you?

  12. September 5, 2016 2:57 pm

    You’re absolutely right, Paul. There’s no evidence whatsoever that mankind’s carbon emissions have had any effect on sea-level.

    Here in North Carolina, we have one GLOSS-LTT tide gauge, at Wilmington. It has been measuring sea-level since 1935. Here is a graph of sea-level there, juxtaposed with CO2. It is obvious that sea-level is not noticeably affected by CO2:

  13. Broadlands permalink
    September 5, 2016 3:36 pm

    Some evidence on sea level rise in the Indian Ocean… Glorious (Glorioso) Islands, Madagascar

    JAMES HORSBURGH, FRS, AS…. wrote about Captain Moresby in 1821.

    “GLORIOUS ISLANDS, two in number, are low, small, situated on a reef, about 38 or 40 leagues to the W. N. W. of Cape Ambre. Capt. Moresby, in the Menai sloop of war, touched at these islands in 1821, and made the eastern one in lat. 11° 32½′ S. lon. 47° 39′ E. and the western one in lat. 11° 34¾′ S. lon. 47° 30′ E. by observations of sun and moon, nearly agreeing with chronometer. They are covered with brush wood and trees 20 or 25 feet high, and are about 15 feet above the sea level, connected by a coral bank nearly 3 miles in breadth in some places, which space is filled with small isles, sand banks and lagoons, through which no passage appears…”

    Wikipedia… Glorioso Islands today:

    “The climate is tropical and the terrain is low and flat, varying from sea level to 12 metres (39 ft). Île de Lys in particular is a nesting ground for migratory seabirds and turtles lay eggs on the beaches.”

    Sea level… About 15 feet in 1821 and about 20 feet…higher now after 190 years.

  14. Roger Cole permalink
    September 5, 2016 10:29 pm

    Still reckoned to be the most violent weather event to hit north of the Carolinas was the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635. I wonder what excuse the Guardian would make for that.

  15. chris moffatt permalink
    September 6, 2016 12:44 pm

    Here in eastern Virginia (Chesapeake bay area) we just experienced the passage of TS Hermine. I can vouch for the facts that the forecasted wind strengths, precipitation and duration were all exaggerated – as were the post storm reports. The storm arrived Friday (2nd) with strengthening winds throughout the day, reached a peak during the night and rain started then also. By saturday (3rd) early afternoon it was just about over although the winds took some time to die down. Sunday A.M. clear, cool , light breezes. Highest wind I measured was ~50mph. Total rainfall 0.25″

    Of course we were then told that it was much worse other places than what we had experienced (which was no more than your average Nor’easter but didn’t last as long). There were the obligatory pictures of Norfolk (VA) streets flooded but I noticed that there only seemed to be an inch or so of actual water. This happens in some parts of Norfolk every time it rains. It happens because:

    1. the whole Chesapeake bay area is slowly sinking because of post-glacial rebound and the fulcrum point is north of Virginia
    2. many parts of the Chesapeake bay are locally subsiding – many bay islands have disappeared or become much smaller over the last several hundred years or more
    3. much of original Norfolk was built on fill dumped into the bay to provide building space. This fill is compacting
    4. ground water depletion by overpumping of the local aquifers causing yet more local subsidence

    See; climate is much more complicated than it sometimes seems to weak and simple minds.

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