Is English Summer Rain Getting More Extreme?
By Paul Homewood
How many times do we hear claims that extreme weather has been increasing because of global warming?
In terms of precipitation, this can take the form of both excessive rainfall and drought.
Let’s then take a look at summer rainfall in England & Wales, to see if there is any truth in such claims here.
We can plot the differences between actual and mean for the England & Wales Precipitation series since 1766. It would appear that wet summers predominated in the 19thC, but less so since.
But what is particularly interesting is when we remove the negative signs. Figure 2 simply shows all variations from mean as a positive number:
We can see that the biggest variations were in 1829, 1879 and 1912 (all wet summers). Of more interest though is the 10-year average, which shows that recent variability in summer rainfall has been pretty average.
Indeed, the current 10-year average is 46.1mm, which compares to the long term series average of 48.7mm.
As far as England & Wales is concerned, summer rainfall is not getting more extreme.
England & Wales Precipitation Series