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Spot The Scientist

September 11, 2016

By Paul Homewood

 

 

In the red corner, we have Dr Paul Williams of Reading University.

 

Dr Paul Williams pictured at Heathrow Airport

 

Williams has received Royal Society Fellowship grants worth £739K since 2009, to research climate models.

According to him, the jet stream is speeding up because of climate change.

 

 

 

 

And in the blue corner we have Dr Jennifer Francis of Rutgers.

 

 

She claims the jet stream is slowing down:

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet, an effect enhanced when the sea ice that normally cools the Arctic air melts away. Because of this, the air currents that come from that region are getting disproportionately warmer too, narrowing the temperature difference between the Arctic and southerly winds, and thereby weakening the jet stream itself. “The winds have weakened by 10 per cent over the past three decades in the west-to-east wind of the jet stream”

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26278-crazy-weather-traced-to-arctics-impact-on-jet-stream#.VCgmrxawSpO

 

 

 

Will the real scientist please stand up?  

30 Comments leave one →
  1. September 11, 2016 6:35 pm

    Well, if arctic air is indeed warming and slowing the jet stream that means that aircraft fying east to west on the most heavily used route in the world, across the atlantic , will now use much less fuel opposing the jet stream and thus much less co2 entering the atmosphere . A real plus for global warming , bring it on !!!

  2. September 11, 2016 6:53 pm

    No doubt the computer models prove both cases.
    As Wilfred would have said, “Give them the money Mabel”!

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      September 11, 2016 10:44 pm

      Did you know that the pianist on ‘Have a Go’ for 6 yrs was Violet Carson ( Ena Sharples in Coronation Street)

  3. September 11, 2016 7:17 pm

    It’s all so confusing🙂

  4. September 11, 2016 7:50 pm

    Standing up. However, also not a scientist!

  5. AndyG55 permalink
    September 11, 2016 8:05 pm

    Here is UAH NoPol until just before the El Nino spike

    And here is UAH NoPol from 1980 to just before the 1998 El Nino

    Data does not help these people.

  6. September 11, 2016 9:03 pm

    Neither is a scientist in the true definition. Neither is following the scientific method nor trafficking in the truth.

    • September 13, 2016 7:05 am

      Joan, absolutely correct. If they were true scientists they would actually measure the speed of the jet stream using objective and unbiased methods. They wouldn’t simply make calculations (or maybe just a SWAG) and claim the result to be the truth.

  7. Bruce of Newcastle permalink
    September 11, 2016 9:10 pm

    Maybe Dr Williams should have a chat with his Reading colleague Prof. Mike Lockwood, who told us the jet stream blocking in the cold 2010 winter was due to low solar activity.

    Low solar activity link to cold UK winters

    More jet stream variations caused the big Moscow heatwave and the Pakistani floods that same year.

    Now in 2016 we’re getting back to low solar activity conditions, and the NH jet stream has been especially sinuous lately.

  8. September 11, 2016 9:26 pm

    On this issue I nominate Judah Cohen as the scientist who understands jet streams.

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/07/06/warm-is-cold-and-down-is-up/

  9. 1saveenergy permalink
    September 11, 2016 10:46 pm

    Sounds like settled science to me

    • Broadlands permalink
      September 12, 2016 1:19 am

      Settled Science? Yes, and for the first time ever in the long history of science? These guys are not just good they must be better than any of their scientific predecessors to have settled a science. Next scientific problem please.

      • 1saveenergy permalink
        September 12, 2016 7:18 am

        I’m sorry, my typo, it was should have read –
        Sounds like UNSETTLED science to me

  10. September 12, 2016 12:49 am

    I could make that decision if I had the appropriate multi-year grant.

  11. Don B permalink
    September 12, 2016 1:35 am

    Just possibly, as remote as that might seem, Jennifer Francis could be an advocate!

    “One of the paper’s coauthors, Jennifer Francis, has gotten quite a bit of mileage out of this paper. She has been involved with Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project, and was recently invited to give Congressional Testimony (discussed here). Francis has also been the chief proponent of a link between the Arctic sea ice decline and Hurricane Sandy:”

    https://judithcurry.com/2013/08/21/arctic-sea-ice-and-weather/

  12. September 12, 2016 6:06 am

    Never mind the results, feel the money.

  13. Paul2 permalink
    September 12, 2016 6:32 am

    Employ the proles to pump a trace gas into a hole in order to create jobs shocker. Someone’s been at the Buckfast early:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/12/parliament-calls-for-carbon-capture-to-revive-british-industry-a/

  14. dave permalink
    September 12, 2016 8:16 am

    There an old saying:

    The first lawyer into a town will starve. The second lawyer into the town will make them both prosperous.

  15. September 12, 2016 8:33 am

    A possible solar effect on the jetstreams…

    ‘In 2008, the sun entered a deep lull in magnetic activity. Spacecraft measurements show that this caused a belt of sluggish particles, known as the slow solar wind, to thicken….As solar activity dwindles, the belt thickens, and we spend more time passing through it. The speed of the slow solar wind affects the temperature of Earth’s upper atmosphere, and impacts climate.’
    http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24851-sleepy-sun-thickens-the-slow-solar-wind/

    Are the two protagonists factoring this into their jetstream thinking?

  16. Ex-expat Colin permalink
    September 12, 2016 9:18 am

    Brian Cox…oh, alright then… I’ll get me coat:

    “An Open Letter to an Alarmist Shill”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/11/an-open-letter-to-an-alarmist-shill/

  17. September 12, 2016 9:44 am

    These “scientists” just make it up as they go along. That is the beauty of having “a theory of everything”, like AGW. If it is warmer/colder; wetter/dryer- fill in the blanks- it is all “consistent” with climate change.
    PS please give me some more money.

    • dave permalink
      September 12, 2016 12:45 pm

      Meanwhile, here comes La Nina?

  18. dave permalink
    September 12, 2016 12:48 pm

  19. dave permalink
    September 12, 2016 12:49 pm

    Sorry … I give up…the copy and paste is not working properly…

    The latest figure (Sep 11) is -0.976 C.

  20. TonyM permalink
    September 15, 2016 12:24 am

    Until these “scientists” follow the scientific method as clearly stated in the following by a real scientist, Richard Feynman, they are nothing but shills for the wealth redistribution politicians:

    “• There is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science**. … It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty — a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid — not only what you think is right about it; other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked — to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.
    Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can — if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong — to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.
    In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another.
    ** Cargo cult science comprises practices that have the semblance of being scientific, but do not in fact follow the scientific method.

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