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Arctic Ice Extent Recovering At Record Pace

September 29, 2016

By Paul Homewood   




Arctic sea ice continues to grow back at a phenomenal rate. Since the start of the month, growth has comfortable exceeded anything on record since daily figures began in 1987.




Ice has expanded by 0.896 million sq km, compared to the 1981-2010 average of 0.237 million sq km.

According to NSIDC, ice extent now stands at the fourth highest for this day in the last 10 years.





DMI actually show ice extent to be higher than NSIDC, roughly equal to 2013 and 2014, which raises questions in itself.




DMI now estimate that the average extent for the month will be greater than, or on a par with, most of the last ten years. Only 2013 and 2014 are much greater. 

It is clear that September ice extent has remained extremely stable since 2007, regardless of what happened before. 



  1. robinedwards36 permalink
    September 29, 2016 6:36 pm

    I think it would be wise to withhold comments about the amount of ice in the arctic until something clear and incontrovertible has been established. With climate matters one never knows what is going to happen until it does, and even then the numbers are prone to being adjusted by someone!
    Let’s wait for a month or two before deciding that things are different from the last few years.

    • AlecM permalink
      September 30, 2016 9:48 am

      What’s happening is in my opinion easily predictable for anyone with a modicum of control system knowledge. The key feature of the last El Nino was ‘The Blob’, warm water in the N. Pacific. It got there by Kelvin waves progressing up the NW USA coast, went away, and has now slightly recovered with a slight uptick of average lower atmosphere temperature.

      This seems to be the result of the operation of the change in ocean currents that are the Integral part of a PID control system, the other parts being the Proportional water cycle which separates control of surface temperature from control of OLR, and the Differential part; convective clouds, a ‘safety valve’.

      This is the way the planet in its present continental configuration gets rid of excess heat as it restores its thermodynamic optimum defined perhaps by maximum entropy production rate or maximum potential energy if you go back further.

      The idea that the planet’s surface temperature is controlled by absorption of part of surface IR energy is, quite frankly, ludicrous, as is the claim that ‘back radiation’ heats the oceans. To believe this means you accept 40% more heating from solar SW energy than reality, a simple energy balance that was finessed in 1976 by what was admitted 24 years later by one J Hansen to an AIP interviewer to be ‘a fudge’, now enshrined in the GCMs in an equally spurious Kirchhoff’s Law of Radiation argument hidden in modelling complexity.

      This is hotly protected by those who invented it and justify it by incorrect cloud optical physics, apparently because the previous ‘negative convection’ argument was so easy to dispute – it cannot exist. Furthermore, that bad cloud optical physics creates imaginary positive feedback in the modelling.

      Thus the present accelerated Arctic freeze rate, a 50 – 70 year cycle, is part of the planet’s recovery. On top of this the weak Sun means we are entering a new Little Ice Age. It’s time this 40-year old, manufactured CO2-AGW charade is buried.

  2. September 29, 2016 7:34 pm

    robin, that is quite sensible, except that declining Arctic ice is claimed to be one line of evidence for global warming. Or course the dots don’t actually connect between CO2 and ice extents, but it is still important to show the truth about ice stability and lack of decline in the last decade.

    MASIE also shows the recovery since 2007, and there will be more proof once the Sept. monthly average is established in 2 days.

  3. Peter Donaldson permalink
    September 29, 2016 7:36 pm

    I agree, the September trend line shown is heading down since 1980 and its too early to say that might be reversed. Lets hope its the start of recovery.

  4. September 29, 2016 7:56 pm

    As an interested dilettante,how much does ice extent depend on met. weather patterns? Sometimes gales pile the ice up in certain areas, as seen on WTWT’s ice page. so it could be the case that while the mass is changing, it’s not necessarily a function of ice extent. I seem to remember a report somewhere mentioning that instrumentation to measure ice mass from orbit had been/was being developed. Can anyone tell me the state of this innovation?

  5. September 29, 2016 10:22 pm

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    “Record” Arctic sea-ice recovery despite record CO2 emissions this Century and rising!

    In fact a third of all Human CO2 emissions since 1750 have been emitted this Century, yet global temps have plateaued and the Arctic is currently tracking record recovery.

    Time for a global-warming-theory check-up? It is after all still a “theory” with not a single peer-reviewed paper yet to link empirical evidence with the small amount of warming that has occurred since 1850 – about 0.8C, depending on which data-set is used.

    Furthermore the slight warning that has occurred is arguably beneficial to human wellbeing and plant growth, as opposed to dangerous cooling. Far more lives are lost to cold weather than to warm.

    As well, numerous studies, including from AGW alarmist government agencies NASA and the CSIRO have shown that rising CO2 emissions are “greening” the planet, which with great irony happens to be a very unwelcome message for the environmental movement.

    CSIRO Censoring Their Own Climate Research:

    So much for the “Ice-free Arctic by 2014”, “Arctic Death Spiral”, “Arctic Imminent Doom”, “Arctic Tipping Points” and other alarmist predictions spouted by climate scientists, government agencies and their sycophant media.

    The Arctic is the ultimate ‘canary in the coal-mine’ for global warming alarmists, and it is currently recovering at record pace, despite record CO2 emissions.

    Cue “Global Warming Is Causing Record Arctic Ice Growth”! But don’t laugh, climate alarmists have already used that one to explain the undisputed *record* ice expansion and cooling of Antarctica 🇦🇶!

    • jazznick permalink
      September 30, 2016 7:31 am

      “Time for a global-warming-theory check-up? It is after all still a “theory””

      Don’t elevate this to a theory – it’s still just an overfunded hypothesis.

    • dave permalink
      September 30, 2016 10:44 am


      The sea-ice growth this year,in the southern winter, was average. During the years when it was low, we were told it was due to global warming. When it was high we were told it was due to global warming. I await being told that “average” is final proof of global warming.

  6. tom0mason permalink
    September 30, 2016 1:27 am

    Isn’t this yet to be ‘rotten fragile first year ice’ anyway?
    Next year maybe…

    • dave permalink
      September 30, 2016 10:49 am

      “…rotten fragile first year ice…”

      Give a dog a bad name…

  7. Robin Guenier permalink
    September 30, 2016 7:22 am

    The World Meteorological Organisation has a very different view:

    “Dramatic and unprecedented warming in the Arctic is driving sea level rise, affecting weather patterns around the world and may trigger even more changes in the climate system.

    “The rate of change is challenging the current scientific capacity to monitor and predict what is becoming a journey into uncharted territory.”


    • September 30, 2016 7:33 am

      Those two paragraphs must win for the bullshit award for 2016. Or the outright lie award

      • Nigel S permalink
        September 30, 2016 9:41 am

        A tie with the crew of ‘Northabout’ perhaps? (A ‘tiny sailing’ vessel in fact just under half the length of HMS Terror but with almost four times the engine power – 90hp Perkins diesel – and four times the range under engine between frequent refueling stops). This is before we start discussing the two RIBs and their 15hp two stroke outboards..

    • NeilC permalink
      September 30, 2016 12:39 pm

      The WMO, UKMO, RMetS don’t understand observed reality

      • AlecM permalink
        September 30, 2016 1:01 pm

        Available World-wide from Acronyms R-us……….

  8. September 30, 2016 5:38 pm

    The end of September shows Arctic ice well above 2007, thus no decline this decade.

  9. Archetype permalink
    October 3, 2016 11:50 pm

    Reblogged this on The Road to Revelation and commented:
    Very informative article from Paul Homewood


  1. Arctic Ice Extent Recovering At Record Pace | The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)

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