What Role Does Geological Heating Play In El Ninos?
By Paul Homewood
Geologist James Kamis offers his views on the latest El Nino:
The 2014-2016 El Niño “warm blob” was created, maintained, and is now being partially recharged by massive pulses of super-heated and chemically charged seawater from deep ocean geological features. Manmade atmospheric global warming had nothing to do with this El Niño, nor any previous El Niño.
Figure 1.) Partial Re-Warming of the 2014-2016 El Niño as expressed in the 9/26/2016 Shallow Sea Surface Temperature (SST) map. (red / yellow colors equal warmer ocean water (“warm blob”), blue colors equal cooler ocean water(“cool blob”, red dot equals geological heating source point)
A summary of the four lines of thinking supporting this claim are as follows; consistent failure of El Niño / La Nina forward-looking computer models, very good correlation of western Pacific Ocean strong earthquake occurrences to El Niño onset, the short term “eruptive” nature of El Niño ocean warming, and the very unique / one of a kind shape of El Niño warm blobs. This article will review each of these lines of thinking to start with the failed El Niño / La Nina computer models.
Supposedly state of the art computer climate models have failed to properly predict the timing and intensity of El Niño warming, La Nina cooling, and of late El Niño Partial Re-Warming (Figure 1). The progression of failed predictions during the last two years has caught everyone’s attention and can be paraphrased as follows; “El Niño has not started…oops it actually has started, El Niño will last 12 months…oops 14 months, when El Niño ends it will be followed by a strong La Nina…oops a weak La Nina…oops no La Nina just normal conditions”, and finally “not sure what is happening will get back to you”.
It is now extremely obvious that something is very wrong with the current multi-billion dollar mainstream El Niño / La Nina climate analysis process, including the highly touted and often cited computer models. This analysis work is funded in large part by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To be perfectly clear the problem is not the working level staff because these are highly qualified, motivated, and well-intentioned / apolitical scientists. Additionally, the problem is not the amount of data these folks run through their highly sophisticated computer programs.
So what is the problem? They are analyzing / inputting the wrong type of data! When searching for a cause or a timing of an El Niño event–including the current one–NASA and NOAA scientists are only utilizing atmospheric and oceanic data. Their computer models are loaded with just atmospheric and oceanic data. All of this data is here contended to be secondary in nature, it is side effect data that is not directly associated with the root cause of anomalous El Niño / La Nina cycles.
One example of how this works is as follows. Anomalous geological forces, specifically chemically charged and super-heated deep ocean seafloor fluid flow, heat the overlying ocean column thereby directly generating an El Niño warm blob. This heated warm blob then indirectly affects the overlying atmosphere in many ways such as altering the trade winds. NASA and NOAA scientists have observed these changes in trade winds and incorrectly assumed they are one of the important root causes of El Niño generation. They take this side affect trade wind data study it, then they computer model it, and then make predictions. When the model fails they add more trade wind data or other side effect data. This process is inherently incorrect and consistently fails.
Next, let’s discuss the correlation of western Pacific Ocean strong earthquake occurrences to El Niño onset. In February 2014 (Figure 2), there wasn’t any sign of anomalous El Niño warming in the key / telling area just west of Central America. No bright red and therefore warmed ocean in this area on the SST Map. Beginning in April of 2014, a significant swarm of high magnitude earthquakes occurred in the Papua New Guinea / Solomon Island region. This swarm was related to a shift in the large deep-sea hot lava chamber beneath this region (see here). By May 2014, (Figure 3), an El Niño had formed. Note the bright red / super-heated ocean areas across the entire breadth of Pacific Ocean the SST map.
Figure 2) 2/2014 Pre-Earthquake Swarm
Figure 3) 6/2014 Post-Earthquake Swarm
In February of 2015, the emerging El Niño had diminished a small amount in response to diminished flow from the deep-earth hot lava chamber beneath the origin point as per Figure 4. Beginning in May of 2015, a second, and as it turns out a more significant, swarm of high-magnitude earthquakes occurred in the Papua New Guinea / Solomon Island region. This swarm signified another and larger movement in the deep-earth lava pocket. This reactivation of the magma chamber initiated a stronger and longer-lasting, chemically charged, super-heated fluid flow pulse. By June 2015, as per Figure 5, the 2014-2016 El Niño was in full warming mode.
Figure 4.) 2/2015 Pre-Earthquake “Swarm”
Figure 5.) 6/2015 Post-Earthquake “Swarm”
The correlation or western Pacific Ocean earthquakes to El Niño onset has also been tracked back historically by utilizing earthquakes data from the Solomon Islands area which is the geological Heat Source Point on all this articles figures. This process has yielded an excellent correlation.
The El Niño ocean warming process occurs in very short “eruptive” bursts (Figure 6) and not in a uniform constant fashion. These bursts all originate at the same limited and fixed non-moving geographical point in the far-western Pacific Ocean. Once a burst of warm ocean water forms it maintains its shape and intensity as it is progressively moved by normal ocean currents eastward toward Central America. These bursts are here interpreted as geologically induced fluid flow pulses from fractured rock layers above a deep earth magma chamber. Deep ocean magma chambers, like land volcanoes, erupt in pulses. Eruptions of land volcanoes chemically charge and heat the atmosphere. Eruptions / activations of the Solomon Island / Papua New Guinea deep ocean magma chamber located at the Heat Source Point act to chemically charge and heat the overlying ocean. This is a significant part of the geologically induced formation of El Niño’s.
Read the full report here.
I have no strong views either way on this one. But a few things are clear and indisputable:
1) Since the PDO switch in 1976, we have experienced a run of strong El Ninos, principally 1982/3, 1997/8 and 2014/16.
2) Strong El Ninos, such as these, release substantial heat into the atmosphere. As such, they have long term effects on global warming.
3) Nobody, in my knowledge, has come up with any proper explanation for these cycles.
4) There is no proven way as to how CO2 can be responsible for these sort of regional ocean surface warming events.
We know that there was a rise in global temperatures in the late 1970s, which coincided with the PDO switch and the upward cycle of the AMO. Until we can properly explain both phenomenons, we cannot begin to understand the cause of recent global warming, never mind future changes.
We will do neither while we are obsessed with CO2 as the only determinant of climate.