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The Changing Arctic – November 1922

October 4, 2016
tags:

By Paul Homewood 

 

What has been called the “Warming in the North” is well recognised as one of the major climatic shifts of the 20thC.

Sometime around 1920,  temperatures began rising rapidly across the Arctic, and both sea and land ice disappeared. Below is an account from NOAA’s monthly weather review in November 1922:

 

image

image

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

 

The warming in the early 1920s was just the start, Across the Arctic, temperatures continued to climb to a peak around 1940. The temperature record at Jan Mayen, which is representative of the region, shows this well:

 

image

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=634010010000&dt=1&ds=5

 

The yellow line is the actual temperature record, before GHCN and GISS got round to tampering with it (blue).

Apart from the anomalously warm year of 2014, temperatures in recent years are similar to that earlier period.

We find the same pattern with Akureyri, on the north coast of Iceland, and Tromo, Norway.

 

image

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=620040630000&ds=5&dt=1

 

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http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=634010250000&ds=5&dt=1

 

 

According to Wadhams, Serreze and the rest of the Arctic alarmist crew, once the ice starts to melt it will lead to a tipping point where warming will accelerate. The good old death spiral for Arctic ice.

The events of the early 20thC show this theory to be bunkum. 

If they were proper scientists, they would realise that what they are looking at is the natural cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.

 

 

tsgcos.corr.81.146.41.36.261.7.32.45

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

4 Comments leave one →
  1. Broadlands permalink
    October 4, 2016 1:49 pm

    In addition to the November 1922 report on the Arctic…. all from July in Europe.

    Weather of 1921…press comments outside the US:

    BRITISH ISLES: London, July 10. England is sweltering and suffering the worst drought in a century. Today was the seventy-eighth virtually rainless day. For the third successive day temperatures have exceeded 100. The rainfall for the year is less than one-third normal to date.

    FRANCE: Paris July 12. The Senate yesterday… cancelled the usual July 14 military review in Longchamps owing to the extreme heat.

    GERMANY: Berlin, July 27. The potato crop has been the hardest hit of any in Germany by the prolonged dry weather..

    RUSSIA: July 17. Twenty million persons are on the verge of starvation in drought-stricken sections of Russia, subsisting mainly on moss, grass and the bark of trees, according to the Vossische Zeitung, which quotes information from “reliable Russian sources.” The parched earth, it is asserted, is opening up great crevices, and wells and rivers are drying up. Foliage is asserted to have withered on the trees, and a number of villages are reported on fire

    SWITZERLAND: Zermatt: July 26. The heat has not greatly abated. On the summit of the Wellenkuppe, above Zermatt, and 12,830 feet high, the temperature at 10 o’clock in the morning has exceeded 100°F., and this despite the summit’s being perpetually snow-clad… never do Alpinists remember such a variety of bright-colored butterflies in the high mountains as this year.

    ITALY: July 30. The principal phenomenon…was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in its length and duration.

    ITALY: Venice, July 30. The principal phenomena which prevailed [this week] was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in length of its duration. For several weeks the heat has increased until the past week the temperature has been up in the high nineties for day after day, and unofficial reports of over 100° have been frequent. The extremely high humidity has practically brought active business to a standstill, and has caused many deaths and heat exhaustions. The principal damage caused by the heat wave is the protracted period of drought which accompanies it. Agriculture is the chief sufferer from the heat and drought and no alleviation appears in sight. Weeks of cloudless scorching days have played havoc with the crops which were in progress when the heat wave began.
    from U.S. Consul at Venice.

  2. robinedwards36 permalink
    October 4, 2016 9:13 pm

    I have known about this change, generally rather vaguely believed to have taken place in the 1920s, for many years. It exists for all to see in several data sets. The most authoritative of these is due to Vinther et al, with the following reference:-

    Merged Greenland monthly temperatures based on infilled temperature series
    from Ilulissat, Nuuk and Qaqortoq situated along the south and west coasts
    of Greenland.

    Vinther, B. M., K. K. Andersen, P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa and J. Cappelen,
    Extending Greenland Temperature Records into the late 18th Century,
    doi:10.1029/2005JD006810, JGR, 111, D11105.

    The very abrupt change point occurred over a month or two, around September 1922, and its existence was presaged by earlier publications by Vinther for single sites in that area.
    Unfortunately I can’t provide graphics that demonstrate the change, since I have not fathomed out how to insert graphics into a comment, but I could provide them by email to Paul, if he is interested.

    It has always astonished me that Vinther showed no interest at all in the graphics that I sent him shortly after his work was published. I guess that he did not believe it, or possibly that he did not wish to know that sudden changes occurred in temperature data.

    I have countless other examples of abrupt change over wide geographical areas. I sent Paul a set of graphics by email some months ago, but have heard nothing about them so far.

    Perhaps the most striking examples are for European sites – together with sites further east, as far as Vladivostok in fact – where similar abrupt changes of 0.5 to 1 deg C can be found. The time of these changes was (in Europe) in late 1987. If you take the trouble to collect the data from European sites, and then fit linear models to them from 1987 to the present, using monthly anomalies for the sites (I call them Monthly differences) to eliminate the seasonal swings and increase the temporal resolution, you will find little or no evidence of any change since that date. It is as if “The Pause” in this part of the world actually began in late 1987.

    Comments, please!

    Robin

  3. Broadlands permalink
    October 6, 2016 4:24 pm

    Robin… there are many very abrupt and rapid changes in temperatures and in precipitation. I commented on the 1920s earlier by pointing out that the US went from its coldest year on record (since 1895) in 1917 to its warmest year on record in just four years. The year 1921 had an average temperature of 55.6°F as reported by the US Weather Bureau in “The Weather of 1942”. It would still stand as the record high were it not for NOAA’s lowering of that temperature by 1.8°F to 53.80°F. This lowering had the net effect of allowing NOAA to claim that 2012 was the warmest year on record.

    By the way, 1987 was an interesting year in other respects. It was the year that the rate of increase in global population peaked. It was the year that atmospheric CO2 reached the “magical” 350 ppm. It was one of the three top years for annual averaged SSTs… El-Ninos.

  4. October 21, 2016 1:10 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

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