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US Winters Getting Colder, As They Get Warmer!

October 9, 2016
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood 




Eric Worrall covered this latest study in WUWT last week:


Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole

Deepti Singh,
Daniel L. Swain,
Justin S. Mankin,
Daniel E. Horton,
Leif N. Thomas,
Bala Rajaratnam,
Noah S. Diffenbaugh

During the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015, anomalously warm temperatures in western North America and anomalously cool temperatures in eastern North America resulted in substantial human and environmental impacts. Motivated by the impacts of these concurrent temperature extremes and the intrinsic atmospheric linkage between weather conditions in the western and eastern United States, we investigate the occurrence of concurrent “warm-West/cool-East” surface temperature anomalies, which we call the “North American winter temperature dipole.” We find that, historically, warm-West/cool-East dipole conditions have been associated with anomalous mid-tropospheric ridging over western North America and downstream troughing over eastern North America. We also find that the occurrence and severity of warm-West/cool-East events have increased significantly between 1980 and 2015, driven largely by an increase in the frequency with which high-amplitude “ridge-trough” wave patterns result in simultaneous severe temperature conditions in both the West and East. Using a large single-model ensemble of climate simulations, we show that the observed positive trend in the warm-West/cool-East events is attributable to historical anthropogenic emissions including greenhouse gases, but that the co-occurrence of extreme western warmth and eastern cold will likely decrease in the future as winter temperatures warm dramatically across the continent, thereby reducing the occurrence of severely cold conditions in the East. Although our analysis is focused on one particular region, our analysis framework is generally transferable to the physical conditions shaping different types of extreme events around the globe.


It is not the first time we have seen this sort of junk science, and, as always, it is pretty easy to debunk.


Below is NOAA’s chart of winter temperature trends for the US Northeast:




Far from winters getting colder there, the reverse is plainly true.

Of course, it must be pointed out that this chart is based on NOAA’s heavily adjusted temperature data. So maybe winters are actually getting colder there, and NOAA’s version bares no resemblance to reality.

The wonders of climate science!!

  1. Broadlands permalink
    October 9, 2016 7:39 pm

    Sorry to disagree but using the current NOAA DJF Winter data the linear trends since 1995 have trended colder in the Northeast Region. In fact, the contiguous US 48-state winters have trended colder since 1998…led by the colder trending Winters and Falls. El-Nino?

    The warmest US winters in 2015-16 were in CT, MA, ME, NH, RI and VT in the East and in AZ, CA, NV, OR, UT and WA in the West

    • October 9, 2016 8:15 pm

      But since 1980?

      • Broadlands permalink
        October 9, 2016 9:59 pm

        I didn’t realize the Northeast winters were limited to “since 1980”. But, regardless it has nothing to do with the increase in our added CO2 but does seem to correlate with ENSOs?

  2. AndyG55 permalink
    October 9, 2016 8:07 pm


    Their models missed the side of the barn.. so they are building a bigger barn.

  3. October 9, 2016 8:25 pm

    As WUWT commenter TA points out, similar weather patterns occurred in the 1930s.
    [see: TA October 2, 2016 at 4:21 pm]

  4. tom0mason permalink
    October 9, 2016 9:11 pm

    “Warm is cool, and cold is hot.” the mad NOAA said.
    “Don’t be silly!” retorted Alice in her best reasonable attitude.
    “Off with her head!” screeched the Red Hillary Queen.
    “No, my dear not yet.” said the King Obama “First we’ll put in the freezing oven at 110°F, and after we let Science speak”
    “Science speak! Science speak!” cried the Red Queen ever louder.
    “Quiet my dear,” The Kings voice oozed calmness “let us hear Science and ponder on the noble words.”
    Science was brought to the King, and all looked on…

    “Hot’n’cold, cold’n’hot, brings the deserts and snows,
    Cold and hot, runs the rivers of my nose!
    Rain and hail on droughty days.
    Are the causing the solar’s bright haze.
    Fahrenheit and Centigrade et al.
    Reviewed by an authoritative pal”
    Science squawked.

    “There it’s clear hot gives you cold.” the King replied “Science has spoken.”

    “But your Science is just a parrot!” Alice accurately observed.
    “Just a parrot! Just a parrot! Off with her head!” cried the Red Hillary Queen…

  5. tom0mason permalink
    October 9, 2016 9:45 pm

    Or maybe this says it better —

  6. Mike Jackson permalink
    October 10, 2016 10:21 am

    What was that again about sitting with your head in the fridge and your feet in the oven? Overall my temperature is quite normal!

  7. Gerry, England permalink
    October 10, 2016 12:43 pm

    As the late Michael Winner might have said ‘Calm down, dear, it’s only a model.’

    Their big problem will be year round cold – how will global warming cause that?

  8. Tim Hammond permalink
    October 10, 2016 3:44 pm

    How can they possibly show that the ridging is caused by man-made CO2? They might be able to show that the ridging is caused by increased warmth but it cannot possibly be caused directly by more CO2. So we are just back to the fundamental question – if there is warming, what is the cause?

    And then according to their model, more warming means less ridging. Hmm.

    Or is it that we still get the ridging but the east is now warm, so it’s not cold?

    And if we get more ridging that causes the east to be cold, how does it also get warm?

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