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Global Land Temperatures Plummet In October

November 28, 2016

By Paul Homewood 

 

David Rose has put the cat among the pigeons! 

 

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record.

The news comes amid mounting evidence that the recent run of world record high temperatures is about to end.

The fall, revealed by Nasa satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, has been caused by the end of El Nino – the warming of surface waters in a vast area of the Pacific west of Central America.

 

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record

Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year – their biggest and steepest fall on record

 

Some scientists, including Dr Gavin Schmidt, head of Nasa’s climate division, have claimed that the recent highs were mainly the result of long-term global warming.

Others have argued that the records were caused by El Nino, a complex natural phenomenon that takes place every few years, and has nothing to do with greenhouse gas emissions by humans.

The new fall in temperatures suggests they were right.

Big El Ninos always have an immense impact on world weather, triggering higher than normal temperatures over huge swathes of the world. The 2015-16 El Nino was probably the strongest since accurate measurements began, with the water up to 3C warmer than usual.

It has now been replaced by a La Nina event – when the water in the same Pacific region turns colder than normal. 

 

This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.

The satellite measurements over land respond quickly to El Nino and La Nina. Temperatures over the sea are also falling, but not as fast, because the sea retains heat for longer. 

This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.

But it is almost certain that next year, large falls will also be measured over the oceans, and by weather station thermometers on the surface of the planet – exactly as happened after the end of the last very strong El Nino in 1998. If so, some experts will be forced to eat their words.

Last year, Dr Schmidt said 2015 would have been a record hot year even without El Nino. 

‘The reason why this is such a warm record year is because of the long-term underlying trend, the cumulative effect of the long-term warming trend of our Earth,’ he said. This was ‘mainly caused’ by the emission of greenhouse gases by humans.

Dr Schmidt also denied that there was any ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ in global warming between the 1998 and 2015 El Ninos.

But on its website home page yesterday, Nasa featured a new study which said there was a hiatus in global warming before the recent El Nino, and discussed why this was so. Last night Dr Schmidt had not returned a request for comment.

However, both his own position, and his Nasa division, may be in jeopardy. US President-elect Donald Trump is an avowed climate change sceptic, who once claimed it was a hoax invented by China.

Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget.

Other experts have also disputed Dr Schmidt’s claims. Professor Judith Curry, of the Georgia Institute of Technology, and president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network, said yesterday: ‘I disagree with Gavin. The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’

The slowdown in warming was, she added, real, and all the evidence suggested that since 1998, the rate of global warming has been much slower than predicted by computer models – about 1C per century.

David Whitehouse, a scientist who works with Lord Lawson’s sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the massive fall in temperatures following the end of El Nino meant the warming hiatus or slowdown may be coming back.

‘According to the satellites, the late 2016 temperatures are returning to the levels they were at after the 1998 El Nino. 

The data clearly shows El Nino for what it was – a short-term weather event,’ he said.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3974846/Stunning-new-data-indicates-El-Nino-drove-record-highs-global-temperatures-suggesting-rise-not-man-emissions.html

 

Rose uses satellite data for his graph, but the NOAA surface data for land also gives a stark picture:

 

multigraph

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land/1/10/1880-2016

 

Even NOAA admit that October was by far the coldest over land since 2001, despite the fact that are we still awaiting the start of La Nina. 

It is also becoming increasingly apparent that this year’s El Nino event is the strongest one at least for the last 60 years, more powerful than 1983/3 and 1997/8.

Whilst it has not peaked quite as high, it has been much more longer lasting. 

 

ts.gif

 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

28 Comments leave one →
  1. Joe Public permalink
    November 28, 2016 5:34 pm

    “Global average temperatures ……. their biggest and steepest fall on record.”

    Not a phrase in the BBC’s lexicon.

  2. November 28, 2016 5:38 pm

    Climate alarmist analysis:

    Temperatures going down – natural variation, weather.
    Temperatures not going down, or going up – climate change, it’s all our fault, we’re doomed, only the date of Armageddon is undefined.
    Logic – missing.

  3. dearieme permalink
    November 28, 2016 6:01 pm

    It’s climate weirdness, and the blame lies firmly with humans corrupted by Satan. So there!

    • HotScot permalink
      November 28, 2016 7:15 pm

      Not at all man.

      Humans have corrupted Beelzebub,

      He’s a warmist.

  4. The Old Bloke permalink
    November 28, 2016 6:24 pm

    Beautiful. 2016 has been a good year. Brexit, Trump and now a full 1 degree collapse in temperature for just one month. Can’t wait for November temperature data. Brrrrrrr.

    • nigel permalink
      November 28, 2016 6:46 pm

      SST’s starting to drop:

      • nigel permalink
        November 28, 2016 6:48 pm

        This is a bit more up-to-date:

  5. markl permalink
    November 28, 2016 6:44 pm

    This is the reason the alarmists have been pushing/pressuring for the world to get on board with their scam. They new this was inevitable and wanted to attribute it to their efforts. CO2 still rising and we’ve gone from benign climate for 20 years to rapid cooling and by all indications it will get colder. I wonder what the spin will be? I hope the people in colder climates being denied affordable energy due to the scam are OK.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      November 28, 2016 7:19 pm

      Due to the wonderful powers of CO2 it can make it cold as well as hot. Give it time it will cure cancer, the common cold and male pattern baldness.

      • HotScot permalink
        November 28, 2016 8:07 pm

        Hi Gerry, I have a friend (ahem) who want’s to know if the baldness cure will be a CO2 paste or will it be a liquid? And do you have a release date? He doesn’t have long left and would like to be admired on his departure as a man with flowing locks.

        He’s off to Spain next year.

        Any information welcome.

        Thanks,🙂

  6. nigel permalink
    November 28, 2016 6:50 pm

    For some reason the newsest chart isn’t coming up. However, It shows a sideways wiggle in the last two weeks at about 0.25.

  7. tom0mason permalink
    November 28, 2016 6:54 pm

    “You are almost assuredly living in the hottest year ever recorded, according to NASA”
    Says Joe Rom, Gavin Schmidt, Kevin Trenberth, etc. and they show me a graphic…

    SO WHY IS IT SO BLOODY COLD JOE?

    • November 28, 2016 7:53 pm

      If this entire month was 5C lower than normal right across the globe, but still on January the first by careful “adjustments” Greenblob data would show this is the warmest Evah
      (forgetting they haven’t had global measurement for long and that the Medieval Warming period was warmer plus thousands of other years.

  8. November 28, 2016 7:46 pm

    Green Blob Central will shrug off this news, expect “second highest temperature on record” next year, then third highest the year after, then fourth highest, etc, but does this indicate the end of the late 20th century climate optimum?

  9. mikewaite permalink
    November 28, 2016 8:30 pm

    All this talk of rapid cooling naturally made me check our UK power situation on gridwatch – now wish that I had not ;
    http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
    Power demand is approaching 46GW ( have not seen that in the UK for a long while it seems) , the coal , nuclear and gas are at or in the red zones (dont know what that means but it surely cannot be good ) and the wonderful , free and easy wind , the power source we will depend on almost completely soon according to the Govt , is contributing just 2 GW , the same as biomass.
    According to the papers our PM relies on heavenly inspiration for her policies . Might be better to invest in a few old fashioned electrical engineers like those that built up the CEGB.

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      November 28, 2016 11:37 pm

      I note that UK solar PV is now included on grid watch,
      (11.5 GWp capacity ) runs at just 7% capacity factor.

    • November 29, 2016 10:41 am

      I’ve not noticed it before, but if you hover over the total demand dial, it gives a description.

      This tells you what happens when we get into amber territory – a bit frightening!

  10. November 28, 2016 10:27 pm

    Seriously last months temperatures haven’t been “Adjusted” yet.
    And it’s astounding how the far past keeps getting cooler making today seem warmer.

  11. Broadlands permalink
    November 29, 2016 1:12 am

    The Hadley HadSST.1 Nino 3.4 index shows that the 2015-2016 3.4 index is warmer than the 1997-1998 values…even though the anomalies are now in La-Nina territory… minus 0.749 for October.

  12. Tokalo permalink
    November 29, 2016 1:13 pm

    I must confess that I struggled with this part of the article:

    “Last week, Mr Trump’s science adviser Bob Walker said he was likely to axe Nasa’s $1.9 billion (about £1.4 billion) climate research budget

    This also has worldwide impacts, driving temperatures down rather than up.”

    Are we meant to infer from this that if we sacked all climate scientists, there would be a new ice age? Sounds very dangerous. I say, keep paying them all our taxes so we can turn the heating down a couple of degrees…

    • November 29, 2016 5:32 pm

      Poor editing on my part!!!!

      The Trump line was just a tag to a photo of him, omitted by me.

      The “driving temps down” refers to the previous line about La Ninas

      I’ll update

      Thanks

  13. bendssv permalink
    November 29, 2016 1:38 pm

    Good day Paul,

    Let’s not exaggerate like the “non-deniers”: a 1+C cannot be characterized as a plummeting temperature…. Merriam-Webster’s definition of plummet: to drop sharply and abruptly, or to fall very quickly and suddenly (Cambridge dictionary).

    Ben

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