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BBC’s Arctic “Heatwave” Occurs Regularly

December 24, 2016
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By Paul Homewood

 

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

 

More Arctic alarmism from the BBC:

 

Temperatures at the North Pole could be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve, in what scientists say is a record-breaking heatwave.

Climate scientists say these unseasonably warm weather patterns in the Arctic region are directly linked to man-made climate change.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

 

Unsurprisingly, scientists know it’s man made because that’s what their models tell them:

 

Dr Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute told BBC News that in pre-industrial times "a heatwave like this would have been extremely rare – we would expect it to occur about every 1,000 years".

Dr Otto added that scientists are "very confident" that the weather patterns were linked to anthropogenic climate change.

"We have used several different climate modelling approaches and observations," she told BBC News.

"And in all our methods, we find the same thing; we cannot model a heatwave like this without the anthropogenic signal

 

Meanwhile, H Sterling Burnett  gives us the full facts at the Federalist website:

 

 

Much has been made about the well-above-average temperatures the Great White North has experienced this year and during the winter of 2015. For example, The Washington Post ran a story on December 20 titled “Pre-Christmas melt? North Pole forecast to warm 50 degrees above normal Thursday.”

Undoubtedly, the most vocal and least careful proponents of the theory that human use of fossil fuels is causing climate change will seize on this isolated fact as proof anthropogenic climate change is occurring. Some of them already made such claims in late November, when the temperatures in the Arctic were also well above average for that time of year.

In a November Live Science story, University of Rutgers professor Jennifer Francis said:

The Arctic has been in uncharted territory pretty much all year long, ever since last fall. … The loss of the sea ice, the increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the thawing of permafrost, the changes in the weather patterns, the rising sea level – it’s all consistent with our expectations for the response of the climate system to increases in greenhouse gases. It’s been totally expected.

The problem is, as a careful reading of The Washington Post story reveals, while temperatures in the Arctic are relatively high, high temperatures, while not the norm, are also not unusual. That’s because the kind of weather patterns that have caused the past two years of warmth have happened once or twice each decade at least since the 1950s, according to a recent paper that will appear in the influential journal Nature.

The Weather Constant Is Change

In the middle of 2016, the world emerged from an unusually powerful El Niño, which had raised ocean temperatures well above average. The El Niño has been replaced by a La Niña, which has contributed to swiftly cooling land temperatures, but it takes time for the latent heat contained in the ocean to dissipate.

Simultaneously, snow swept over Eurasia at the fastest pace on record in October. This snowfall caused cooler temperatures that, when combined with an extreme high-pressure system that formed in Siberia in October and persisted for more than a month, shifted the jet stream, pushing milder air toward the Arctic. The jet-stream shift, combined with low-pressure systems in the Pacific and Atlantic, kept temperatures relatively high and prevented extensive sea ice from forming. The low sea-ice levels further contributed to warmer temperatures.

Low sea ice and high Arctic temperatures are not a consequence of human-caused global warming. They result from the same natural factors that have controlled weather in the Arctic and around the world since the beginning of time. Nature, not human-produced greenhouse-gas emissions, is responsible for the “melting” North Pole, as well as the deep freeze that has been occurring over the past month throughout much of Asia, Siberia, and even parts of the United States.

As Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, told The Washington Post, the large Arctic storms that drew mild air into the Arctic in 2015 and 2016 are “part and parcel of Atlantic weather variability.”

In an October 2016 Nature Geoscience study, researchers running climate-model simulations against 600 years of climate records “found no evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss having impacted Eurasian surface temperature. … We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern.”

This finding was seemingly confirmed in an October Geophysical Research Letters paper, which finds shifts in large-scale, regional Atlantic and Pacific Ocean circulation patterns are likely responsible for both sea-ice loss in the Arctic and more frequent cold winters in Europe recently.

http://thefederalist.com/2016/12/23/nobody-needs-freak-north-poles-higher-temps-right-now/

 

For some reason the BBC forgot to mention that Siberia has been in the grip of some of the coldest weather in recent weeks, with temperatures tumbling to minus 79F, breaking all previous cold records.

What’s behind the record cold snap? A high-pressure system has settled over the North Pole, which is pushing Arctic air further south than normal. While some in the media are quick to blame #Climate Change, it’s actually just weather. When the polar jet stream dips down far enough, it can bring record-breaking temps to otherwise moderate areas.

As the“Siberian Times,” pointed out, this was not the week when there was any evidence of global warming occurring in western Siberia.

 

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http://us.blastingnews.com/news/2016/12/bone-chilling-temps-sink-to-80-degrees-f-in-siberia-shattering-records-001346871.html

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32 Comments
  1. Gamecock permalink
    December 24, 2016 3:30 pm

    ‘Dr Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute told BBC News that in pre-industrial times “a heatwave like this would have been extremely rare – we would expect it to occur about every 1,000 years”.’

    You have to be some kind of special stupid to believe this. We have no data for the first 95% of the period. Double ought zero. Speculation isn’t data.

    • December 24, 2016 3:38 pm

      Ah but if it occurs every thousand years and the models tall us it is anthropogenic, then we must have ….. No, the logic is too difficult for me.

    • tom0mason permalink
      December 24, 2016 5:45 pm

      She also believes ” ‘whether and to what extent external climate drivers alter the likelihood of extreme weather’. She furthermore investigates the policy implication of this emerging scientific field.”

      Yep, she believes her computer modeled world should inform public policy! No doubt she’ll be sending infotainment seasonal greeting cards to MPs, MEPs etc.

    • Harry Passfield permalink
      December 24, 2016 5:50 pm

      Simples, they didn’t have models in pre-industrial times.

    • Shooter permalink
      December 26, 2016 3:12 am

      So…according to Dr. Otto, 1959 was 1,000 years ago? Because that was when the Bering Strait and most of the North Pole was ice-free.

  2. AlecM permalink
    December 24, 2016 4:47 pm

    The fact is, there has been substantial heat accumulation in the oceans. The World has reacted by altering ocean currents. That heat is now leaving for Space at the poles, which is a key part of the control system.

    Very little if any of it was from extra [CO2], which has mostly been caused by that ocean temperature rise. The proof of this is the OCO-2 satellite data, being withheld by NOCE because it is ‘very inconvenient’ for them to show how rapidly new CO2 sinks are operating, another part of the control system.

    It must be a very depressing Christmas for Climate Alchemists, presumably why they’re all whistling in the dark……

  3. Adrian permalink
    December 24, 2016 4:52 pm

    Merry Christmas Paul! Just in case no one else bothers to say it here.

    Now that means you can have a day off,

  4. R2Dtoo permalink
    December 24, 2016 5:12 pm

    Merry Christmas from western Canada. We have the privilege of having a massive blizzard starting tonight and running through Boxing Day. Snow amounts 20-30cm and 80km winds at -15C mean we will be making a lot of phone calls to friends and family who are supposed to be at our house! Thanks for all you do.

  5. tom0mason permalink
    December 24, 2016 5:18 pm

    Must be a Christmas joke, isn’t the BBC known for doing seasonal funnies this time of year? 🙂

    Anyway look here https://www.windytv.com/?temp,2016-12-04-00,84.130,-32.485,2 (back to the December 4.) Click the play button at the bottom and watch all that ‘heat’ boil the North pole (note pale blue is cold, darker blue is very cold, purple/pink is very, very cold).

    Scare the folks for Christmas, eh?

  6. LOL in Oregon permalink
    December 24, 2016 5:25 pm

    Aaaahhhh!
    Sending warm Bermuda air to a dark place the sun don’t shine!
    Wonderful way to chill out and send “real cool” stuff to Siberia, London, or Washington DC!
    But then,
    … It is all “Bush’s” errr “Trump’s” fault!
    ….Just ask propaganda press about anything!

  7. Coeur de Lion permalink
    December 24, 2016 5:30 pm

    I have complained to the beeb

  8. tom0mason permalink
    December 24, 2016 5:35 pm

    I note that Dr Friederike Otto, a senior researcher at Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute not only believes in AGW …

    “Dr Friederike Otto
    Senior Researcher and Scientific Coordinator, climateprediction.net
    Profile

    Friederike is a senior researcher in the ECI Global Climate Science Programme and leads and coordinates the distributed computing climate modelling project climateprediction.net (http://www.climateprediction.net/).

    Her main reserach interest is on extreme weather events, improving and developing methodologies to answer the question ‘whether and to what extent external climate drivers alter the likelihood of extreme weather’. She furthermore investigates the policy implication of this emerging scientific field…”
    [From — http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/fotto.html%5D
    ¯
    …but she also lives in the computer model representation of the world.

    Reality is coming and the computer models are not seeing it.

  9. John F. Hultquist permalink
    December 24, 2016 5:55 pm

    There is a kid’s game called Whack-a-Mole:

    “Climate Experts” are like the game pieces that pop up, one by one. Each one has to be knocked on the head independently of all the others. They seem unable to learn new information (well, new to them) without the blunt force of applied common sense.

    The DMI charts show the ragged ups and downs of temperature in the Arctic Region about every other year, or more often.
    This repeating nonsense by “climate experts” reminds me of an old cowboy song by Carson Robison that starts:

    The sun comes up and the sun goes down
    And the hands on the clock go round and round
    I just wake up and it’s time to lay down,
    Life gets teejus, don’t it.

    A search on the last line (the title) will get various links.

    Merry Christmas!

  10. Don B permalink
    December 24, 2016 6:13 pm

    From a report written for the State Department in October, 1922:

    “There were few seals in Spitzbergen waters this year, the catch being far under the average. This, however, did not surprise the captain. He pointed out that formerly the waters about Spitzbergen held an even summer temperature of about 3 degrees Celsius: this year recorded temperatures up to 15 degrees, and last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitzbergen.”

    https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/050/mwr-050-11-0589a.pdf

    (Thanks to Tony Heller)

  11. dennisambler permalink
    December 24, 2016 6:16 pm

    ECI is a hotbed of global warming! Home to Myles Allen, of carbon budget fame, “Towards the Trillionth Tonne” and distributed computing via the BBC, which failed miserably and came up with a potential 11 C of warming from a doubling of CO2.

    “Otto is the ECI lead scientist on the international project World Weather Attribution which aims at providing an assessment of the human-influence on extreme weather in real-time and co-investigator of the project ACE-Africa.”

    If your job is attributing extreme weather to human influence, then that’s just what you’re going to do.

    • Hivemind permalink
      December 25, 2016 12:31 am

      And it’s very easy to do:
      temperature goes up: human caused
      temperature goes down: human caused
      temperature stays the same: human caused
      storms: human caused
      no storms: human caused

  12. Mark Hodgson permalink
    December 24, 2016 7:40 pm

    Whether there’s anything in the report or not, surely BBC News should wait until it’s happened to report it? I’m unimpressed with “news” to the effect that “Arctic heatwave COULD break records” and “Temperatures at the North Pole COULD be up to 20 degrees higher than average this Christmas Eve”.

    Looks like they’re trying to maximise the reporting by reporting it even before (if) it’s happened. Funny they don’t mention the snow in the desert (snow that has actually fallen).

    • Gerry, England permalink
      December 24, 2016 8:16 pm

      And then keeping very quiet should it not happen.

    • Ippy permalink
      December 25, 2016 5:57 am

      Future imperfect shock horror stories are far more newsworthy than facts – just look at the whole man-made CO2 and climate saga.

  13. AndyG55 permalink
    December 24, 2016 7:59 pm

    Climate reanalyse has a bright purple patch over Northern Russia, Greenland, Alaska etc

    I guess they must have photoshopped out in the top image.

    LIES yet again.

    • December 24, 2016 9:01 pm

      Wait, so in 2 days Siberia has gone from -50 to +10? (the two images above.)

      • AndyG55 permalink
        December 25, 2016 4:21 am

        And back again

  14. Dung permalink
    December 24, 2016 10:54 pm

    Have a great Christmas and new year Mr Homewood, you have surely earned it sir.

  15. Athelstan permalink
    December 25, 2016 1:11 am

    Good post, I thoroughly enjoyed the effective analytic, truthful put down.

    You quite correctly, rightly ONLY stick to the facts Mr. Homewood.

    have a well earned rest [not too long though] and happy winterville Christmas!!

  16. NeilC permalink
    December 25, 2016 6:49 am

    Paul, a very big thankyou for all the efforts you put in to show the facts about climate and weather.

    Merry Christmas to you and all that post on your excellent site.

  17. NeilC permalink
    December 25, 2016 6:59 am

    Actual 2m temperatures Northern Hempisphere at 00h 25Dec2016 – the BBC heat (colour it red) has disappeared.

    http://old.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html

  18. Richard111 permalink
    December 25, 2016 7:14 am

    There is no sun at the North Pole just now so where is the heat coming from and where is it going? Looks to me as a symptom of a cooling world.

  19. December 25, 2016 8:52 am

    Merry Christmas, Paul.

    And all my fellow contributors.

  20. tom0mason permalink
    December 25, 2016 11:39 am

    Paul,
    Have Merry Christmas and a happy and cool new year…

  21. lapogus permalink
    December 26, 2016 9:45 am

    I checked http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/ for the actual temperatures on Xmas eve and into Xmas day, and the warmest it got in the vicinity of the North Pole was -8C. Were the models really forecasting 0C?

  22. December 28, 2016 1:36 am

    no evidence that year to year changes in arctic minimum sea ice extent is related to global warming.
    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2869646

  23. ron permalink
    December 29, 2016 4:13 pm

    Canadian newspapers are reporting that the north polar regions will reach _fifty_ count em _fifty_ degrees above normal this year and the Arctic will be ice free. This is reported to be the new normal that will be the fate of the Arctic. The same reports conclude it is definitely proven that it will be the result of man made activities and nothing else. My use of the future tense reflects the actual context of the reports.

    Left unstated is the assumption that we should be trying to get as much of the world covered in ice as we can and any reduction of ice coverage is in itself a disaster. Very few of the scientific proponents of this view live in Canada and absolutely none of them live in the north.

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