UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017
By Paul Homewood
The government has now published its latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017, something it is obliged to do every five years by the Climate Change Act 2008.
The assessment looks to be wholly based on the report of the same name, published last July by the Committee on Climate Change, (CCC).
I think you might see the problem here!
- The CCC was established under the Climate Change Act, and filled by the government with people who, for various reasons, want to push the global warming agenda.
- It is called an independent statutory body, but is no such thing.
- The CCC then issues a report with all sorts of scary predictions.
- The government is obliged under the aforesaid Act to take on board the CCC’s advice.
- The government then publishes its assessment, based on that advice.
And so we close the circle. The government appoints a body to provide it with the advice it wants, in order to pursue the policies it wants.
The Risk Assessment has six categories of risk:
As I have repeatedly shown, there is no evidence that heavy rainfall is increasing in England & Wales, though this may be the case in Scotland.
The wettest year was 1872, which was also part of the wettest decade.
The wettest month was in 1903:
And real flood experts, such as Professor Mark Macklin and Professor Stuart Lane, will tell you that, although the UK alternates between wet and dry periods, the historical record shows that there is nothing unusual about flooding in recent years.
Even if floods get no worse, the harsh reality is that not enough is currently being done to mitigate the risk from them.
While a lot has been done in the last few decades, many problems still remain, not helped by building on flood plains.
As for sea levels, the Executive Summary wrongly claims that they are rising around our coasts at a rate of 3mm/year.
The actual rate is less than 2mm, and considerable less in Scotland, where the land is rising.
Furthermore, it is plain that the rate of rise is not accelerating.
Around most of the English and Welsh coasts, part of the sea level rise is actually due to the land sinking:
There is no evidence that such small, and largely natural, rises in sea levels pose any threat at all.
I will be looking at the other five categories in a later post.