Now Jeremy Warner Loses The Plot!
By Paul Homewood
h/t Patsy Lacey
Jeremy Warner has caught Ambrose Evans-Pritchard fever!
From the Telegraph:
Prepare to be outraged – again. If you think the future of the planet is being put at risk by excessive use of fossil fuels, then there is seemingly more bad news on the way. The question is not so much if Donald Trump withdraws from the Paris accord on climate change, as when.
For Trump, the Paris agreement is the very embodiment of the “top down” multilateralism he and his ideological éminence grise, Steve Bannon, love to hate. What’s more, he thinks climate change is a “hoax”, or, as he once put it, a “very, very expensive form of tax”. Who knows; he may even be right. It wouldn’t be the first time the scientific orthodoxy has been entirely wrong.
Already, the climate change lobby is in ragged retreat before the Donald’s penchant for government by pen-flourishing executive order, and the fossil fuel brigade in a state of resurgent, high excitement. We seem to be at the start of a new age of “drill, baby, drill” licence for the rednecks of Big Oil. Supposedly consigned to the dustbin of history by clean energy concerns, hydrocarbons are all of a sudden being given a new lease of life.
Yet for those interested in the economics of energy, there is a much more significant question to answer than Trump’s designs on the Paris accord: whether climate change is a hoax or not, does it any longer matter? Put more succinctly, is it actually necessary to have binding national targets for carbon emissions in order to move to a low-carbon economy?
If not, then Paris will eventually be seen as of little importance, a well-intentioned, but largely pointless talk-fest of backslapping mutual governmental congratulation barely deserving of a footnote in the history books.
We may not be there quite yet, but we are close. Green technologies are reaching a tipping point of take-up, cost and efficiency which make their eventual wholesale adoption virtually inevitable, regardless of anything that might be done to reinvigorate fossil fuel industries in the meantime.
Of course he is right in one respect – economics will always trump political diktat.
But he misses the real point. The climate change movement and the Paris Agreement never were about global warming. It was always about “top down multilateralism”. It was about UN control, crippling of western economies, undermining capitalism and redistribution of global wealth.
I have no doubt at all that the energy landscape will alter out of all recognition in decades to come, and it’s quite possible that future generations will laugh at some of the renewable technology we have now.
But for the foreseeable future, the wind and solar technologies he thinks are going to take the world by storm simply are not capable of replacing fossil fuels.
That is not to say that there is not a niche for them, but the world’s growing appetite for reliable and cheap energy will ensure that fossil fuels continue to dominate. Even the IEA admit that demand for oil won’t peak until at least 2040.
In the past decade, although energy from wind and solar power has increased by 216 Mtoe, total demand for energy has risen by 1880 Mtoe. This pattern will continue for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, Warner has a vision of a world of virtually cost free energy, of smart phones powered by radiant light alone, and of office blocks and houses that derive all their energy from the sun, the wind, and their own waste.
Obviously nobody has told him that sometimes the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow!