BP Energy Outlook 2017
By Paul Homewood
BP have just published this year’s Energy Outlook, looking at energy trends and projections up to 2035.
These are the highlights:
With the world economy expected to nearly double, energy consumption will also rise by 31%, to 17.2 Mtoe in 2035.
This growth will take place outside the OECD, where energy consumption will effectively flatline.
Energy consumption in China will exceed that of the EU and US combined by 2025.
Although renewable energy will more than quadruple, its share of total energy will still only be 9% by 2035 (excl hydro).
Fossil fuels will remain dominant, with a share of 78%. Not only that, energy consumption from fossil fuels will actually increase by 18%, although coal consumption is expected to peak around 2030.
Emissions of CO2 will continue to climb, rising by 13%, and with no sign of peaking.
The IEA 450 scenario shows what how far emissions need to fall to achieve the goals set out in Paris.
While renewables share of power generation rises towards 40% on the back of massive subsidies, in the US, China and the rest of the world it will struggle to reach 20%.
It is claimed that renewables growth is driven by increasing competitiveness.
However, note the small print!
This is only the case because it is assumed there will be a carbon price of $60/t by 2035.
Interestingly they do not foresee much reduction in the cost of solar power, because PV module costs only account for a small proportion of total installation costs.
In contrast, they expect bigger drops on the cost of wind power, as productivity is improved.
BP’s Outlook does no differ materially from those of other organisations, such as the IEA and EIA:
In short, consumption of fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas will continue to increase throughout the period. This is despite a quadrupling of renewable, improvements in energy efficiency and the mass introduction of electric cars.
As a result, CO2 emissions will also carry on rising.