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Why Was It So Mild Last Month?

April 7, 2017
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood




It was unusually mild last month in England. According to the CET, it was 3.0C warmer than the 1961-90 average.

Global warming, I hear you cry. Well, maybe, but things are not quite that simple.


The first thing I should point out is that, although the 1961-90 average was 5.7C, the more relevant average for 1981-2010 was nearly a full degree warmer, at 6.6C.

The second thing to note is that last month was not the warmest on record. The warmest March was way back in 1957, with 1938 in second place.




This gives a clue that we are observing a “weather” phenomenon, rather than a “climate” one.


A look at the distribution of daily temperatures gives some further clues as to what is going on.

Below is the “normal” distribution of days within temperature bands, based on the 1961-90 baseline.




Although the average mean temperature for this period was 5.7C, it is worth noting that the most common band is 7C to 7.9C. The next most common is 6C to 6.9C.

In other words, days when it is a degree or two warmer than average are perfectly common.

Now let’s add this year’s distribution:




For a start, we can see that there have been no days below 4C. (The coldest day was actually 4.8C). In an average March (1961-90 baseline), there would be 11 days colder than this.

At the other end of the scale, we find that the number of days above 8C has been much higher than average this year.


What is really interesting though is when we compare this March with those other warm ones in 1957 and 1938.





We can see that the distributions are extremely similar in those years as last month.

And, indeed, the weather was also very similar in 1938 and 1957.

In both of those years, there was persistent high pressure to the east, which pulled in south-westerly winds, and also led very dry weather over the east of the country.








Fast forward to 2017, and we can see a very similar pattern of rainfall.



March 2017 Rainfall 1981 - 2010 anomaly


The reality is that the mild weather which we experienced last month was no more than a weather event.





All CET data from:

  1. Mike Jackson permalink
    April 7, 2017 10:20 am

    Looking at the chart for CET from 1901 I would be inclined to the view that there is no such thing as a “normal” temperature for March.

    But then I am only a student of English and the meanings of words; my livelihood does not depend on stirring up needless worries about the weather!

  2. April 7, 2017 10:22 am

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    Excellent analysis of “weather” versus “climate”…

  3. Gerry, England permalink
    April 7, 2017 1:00 pm

    So yet another case of been there, seen it, experienced it before if you are old enough. Not quite in my case. So the interesting research would be on what causes these eastern high pressure areas but then funding would only be available if ‘climate change’ is blamed as the cause and we are looking to find out why.

  4. Athelstan permalink
    April 7, 2017 1:00 pm

    ‘I see no ships’.

    I do see average.

  5. Broadlands permalink
    April 7, 2017 1:18 pm

    What’s Causing All the Warm Weather?

    March 25, 2012; 7:59 AM

    ….March 1938:

    Reading through Charles Lindbergh’s Wartime Journals, 1970, pages 11-12, he wrote this just outside London on Sunday April 3rd, 1938, 75 years ago… now 79 years ago.

    “Wonderful weather since we landed last month. Was beginning to become enthusiastic about the weather in England until Anne read in the morning’s Observer that it was the warmest March for 150 years.”

    • Peter, Norfolk permalink
      April 7, 2017 5:17 pm

      Looks like that ‘inconvenient’ report has been taken down by Met Office. Maybe they monitor this site they are so worried about the truth!

  6. Roy Hartwell permalink
    April 7, 2017 2:13 pm

    ‘Warmer than the average’ Save me from complete idiots ! Do they not understand how averages are derived !!!!

  7. Ross King permalink
    April 7, 2017 3:10 pm

    The pretty-coloured map, showing areas of respectively hi’er aqnd loweer-than-average rainfalls, beautifully illustrates my point as follows:
    Someone’s wettest-ever/driest-ever/hottest-ever/coldest-ever, etc., *somewhere* in the World is likely coincident with someone-slse’s [….]est-ever event, all eminently news-worthy!
    A lot of idiots out there do indeed fail to understand what “average” is all about.
    Put another way, while someone — say in Doha — is having an extreme event (say hi’est ever-recorded rainfall in 1 hour), someone somewhere else had the reverse (lowest-ever-recorded rain accumulation in one hour = 0 !!!!!)
    In this [absurd] example, the evidence from Doha does not *prove* that Global Warming is upon us all …. as the hysterical zealots would have us believe based on a few record-setting events, regardless of the respective mean, Standard Deviatioons for locale, ‘county’, State/Province/natural geographical area, country, etc.
    While Doha is soaking, Timbuktoo may be coldest-ever, Nelson hottest-ever, etc. Conflating these into a G.W. scare is what these parasites are trying to sell us in the interests of a Cap & Trade System or some other Greenist extravagance.
    Oh dear…. just realized that it didn’t rain before noon -time on my garden yesterday …. THIS EQUALS THE RECORD FOR MY GARDEN OF LOWEST-EVAH MORNING RAINFALL.

  8. April 7, 2017 8:39 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    It’s always a nice surprise to read through the Met Office monthly reports and see how often these events happen.

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