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PG Twits

June 12, 2017
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By Paul Homewood

 

Back in 2011, scientists claimed that climate change would drastically reduce Kenya’s tea production:

 

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Climate change will drastically reduce Kenya’s tea production over the next 40 years with suitable lands being pushed further up the altitude, denting earnings from one of the country’s top hard currency sources.

Scientists from the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) said during a global conference that land under tea will reduce by 42 per cent by 2050, creating excess capacity in tea factories dependent on the catchments.

Areas West of the Rift Valley particularly Nandi, Kericho, and Gucha will be the most affected according to the study titled Future Climate Scenarios for Kenya’s Tea Growing Areas by Dr Peter Laderach, Dr Audberto Quiroga, Dr Jason Gordon, and Dr Anton Eitzinger.
The study says producers in Bomet, Kisii, and Nyamira will need to adapt their farm management to the new conditions.

http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/corporate/539550-1167434-1130u3c/index.html

 

Actual data tells us that tea production in  Kenya has been growing rapidly since the 1970s, global warming or not, and has enjoyed record harvests in 2013 and 2014, according to the UN’s FAOSTAT data up to 2014:

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http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

 

As is often the case with climate science, it is the opposite that is true. As World Tea News reported in February this year, it is cold, dry weather that damages tea harvests:

Last year’s short rainy season and a prolonged drought in East Africa is taking a toll on tea yields in the region. As the weather phenomenon La Niña continues to dry up the skies, many are predicting a bleak 2017 for tea production in Kenya and other tea-growing countries in the region.

Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority issued an Early Warning Bulletin in December. “The late start and early end to the raining season mean that yields are likely to be poor,” it states.

This is in stark contrast to last year’s bumper harvest of 426,000 metric tons, up from 352,000 metric tons in 2015, which led to a second straight year of improved earnings for Kenyan growers, helped by a stable exchange rate and high prices for tea in the world market. Kenya exports 25 percent of the world’s tea and is the third-largest tea producer (after China and India).

Although the growing season began with decent enough rainfall, a dry and unusually cold June signaled trouble ahead. These cold-weather conditions continued into July and August, reducing crop production so much that, according to tea broker Combrok Ltd, factories were cutting their plucking days to only three or four days a week to save costs. By the end of 2016, following several months of dry weather, crops were showing signs of deterioration. “The tea leaves are becoming dry and falling off,” said Johnson Irungu, director of crops in the Kenya Agriculture Ministry.

http://worldteanews.com/news/east-africa-drought-affects-tea-production

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19 Comments
  1. dave permalink
    June 12, 2017 6:41 pm

    ANY thing touched by “climate science wisdom” is immediately corrupted, and gives off the appropriate stench of fish guts under the sun.

  2. Joe Public permalink
    June 12, 2017 7:07 pm

    PG Twits & those doom-mongers should just fuckoffee …

    “Climate Change Threatens World’s Coffee Supply, Report Says”

    “Climate change is threatening the world’s coffee supplies: what can we do?”

    https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/live/2016/sep/16/coffee-climate-change-smallholders-central-america-ethiopia-technology-funding

    • dave permalink
      June 12, 2017 7:35 pm

      No coffee, no tea?

      Back to Gin!!

  3. dave permalink
    June 12, 2017 7:40 pm

    “…Gin!!”

    When I told a bar-man friend of mine that I rather liked Gin and Orange he said I was “the bar-man’s friend.” When I asked why, he explained that any bar-man worth his salt would SWILL gin round in the glass and then POUR it back in the bottle and add the juice. “Nobody ever notices the fraud!”

  4. nigel permalink
    June 12, 2017 7:50 pm

    “…the fraud.”

    Rather like the experience of the founder of the Good Food Guide. One thing which motivated him to found it was an experience, around 1950, at a posh businessmens’ restaurant in England. He asked for STILTON. When it came he expostulated, “This is DANISH BLUE!” The waiter was not embarrassed; “Indeed it is, Sir, and you are the first person ever to notice!”

    “This “Climate Science” is rubbish!” “Indeed, it is, Sir,…”

  5. June 12, 2017 8:06 pm

    Perhaps all these scientists now buy their tea from Yorkshire. Clever fellows.

  6. June 12, 2017 9:43 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    If you grow something, it’s always the cold you fear.

  7. bluecat57 permalink
    June 12, 2017 11:29 pm

    Recently discovered PG Tips tea, so I enjoyed the pun. Not a bad tea for every day.

    I tend to have tea or coffee with my whiskey, so when the tea and coffee get too expensive, I just have whiskey.

    And what part of GREENland don’t the climate change wackos not understand? No one has a right to live anywhere at someone else’s expense. I’m sitting on a couple of hundred acres of beachfront property once the CO2 levels reach historic norms.

  8. tom0mason permalink
    June 13, 2017 12:09 am

    Climate change will cause …

    Good!

    If such predictions are true then production can move to more accessible areas of the world a bit further north or south of Kenya. Kenya will find they can grow other (more tropical) crops. It’s a win-win, so bring it on.

    Except this story is all BS except for the fact that tea growing has now moved slightly up the mountains because the small increase in atmospheric CO2 has made this possible. The old tea fields are still there and thriving.
    BTW ‘climate change’ (aka AGW) has not affected the region where Kenya is with an excessive increase in temperatures, and the rains are just a variable as they have ever been.
    Within normal climate variation each year, the rain moves northwards up into sub-Saharan Africa (by around August), and then moves back southwards into sub-central Africa (by March). Equatorial Africa remains in the rain throughout the year, which is why this region is the wettest part of the continent. Some decades are drier than other but variation is to be expected with normal climate and it’s variability.

  9. June 13, 2017 5:39 am

    You have to wonder how many people on the ground take any notice of this kind of nonsense? Probably very few, but there are always one or two idiots who take notice and follow the advice – to their cost.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      June 13, 2017 12:40 pm

      The problem is when government morons read this kind of rubbish and decide to do something that involves spending somebody else’s cash.

  10. Ben Vorlich permalink
    June 13, 2017 6:37 am

    As a tea addict I see this as great news.

  11. June 13, 2017 7:54 am

    Paul, slightly different topic – do you know that since last year there is now an All Party Group for the Study of The Limits to Growth? AND they have found a pocket full of money for the University of Sussex to form the “Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity” – CUSP – which perhaps means they know we are on one.

    Even more hilariously, the university is offering a PhD in Sustainable Prosperity (undefined). Prosperity can be made sustainable if it’s set low enough, surely? Can you believe it?

    Oh, and guess who is on the new all-party group? Yep, little John Gummer. Surprise surprise.

    • John Palmer permalink
      June 13, 2017 7:59 am

      Come come Bobski – show some respect. You mean Baron Gummer of Burger don’t you?

    • Russ Wood permalink
      June 13, 2017 3:43 pm

      Sustainable prosperity? Sounds a bit like the ‘decolonised’ ‘African Science’ that a bunch of students was trying to push on to the University of Cape Town!

    • Old Englander permalink
      June 14, 2017 4:22 pm

      Whose son Ben Gummer just lost his seat as an MP

  12. June 13, 2017 12:59 pm

    Tea (Camellia sinensis) is an old species, as are most species. They have survived major climate changes or they would not be here. Therefore, if they have survived climate shifts in the past, they can survive them in the future. These plants are what we botanists refer to as “genetically predisposed.”

    • bluecat57 permalink
      June 13, 2017 11:38 pm

      I wish I could include the picture I just took of a blade of grass popping up through the asphalt behind my house. Mother Nature can take care of herself, thank you very much.

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