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Drier Winters To Lead To Record Rainfall!

July 27, 2017
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By Paul Homewood

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New innovative research has found that for England and Wales there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new monthly rainfall record in at least one region each winter (Oct-Mar).

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/high-risk-of-unprecedented-rainfall

 

Now that’s strange, because five years ago a certain J Slingo was telling us that “melting Arctic sea ice” was leading to drier winters!

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The reduction in Arctic sea ice caused by climate change is playing a role in the UK’s recent colder and drier winter weather, according to the Met Office.

Speaking to MPs on the influential environmental audit committee about the state of the warming Arctic, Julia Slingo, the chief scientist at the Met Office, said that decreasing amounts of ice in the far north was contributing to colder winters in the UK and northern Europe as well as to drought. But she stressed that it was one factor and not the "dominant driver" in the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter

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23 Comments
  1. July 27, 2017 6:23 pm

    If ‘ “melting Arctic sea ice” was leading to drier winters!’ and we’re now due to get wetter winters, Arctic sea ice must be increasing.

    Or there’s a logic problem somewhere 😉

  2. Broadlands permalink
    July 27, 2017 6:24 pm

    “…The reduction in Arctic sea ice caused by climate change” is causing climate change?
    After the 1997-98 record El-Nino and La-Nina there are many places where the winters (DJF) are trending colder.

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/110/0/tmax/3/2/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000&trend=true&trend_base=10&firsttrendyear=1998&lasttrendyear=2017

    • July 28, 2017 9:19 am

      Shhh. You’ll upset them pointing out stuff like that, and using facts as if they were true.

  3. Bitter&twisted permalink
    July 27, 2017 6:25 pm

    Typical of the self-contradictory drivel, spewed out by the Met Orifice.
    Climate Astrology at its worst.

  4. July 27, 2017 6:27 pm

    You couldn’t make it up – but the Met Office can, due to its short memory. Once the “scientists” at the Met Office start telling lies, it is difficult for them to keep track of all the contradictions. Either that or they collectively suffer from cognitive dissonance

    • July 27, 2017 6:47 pm

      Indeed Phillip. Cognitive dissonance rules the world by my reckoning. Mind you, those that suffer it usually don’t. It is the rest of us that suffer.

    • July 28, 2017 9:21 am

      I’ve mailed them, including both the screen shots above, to inquire what major climatic change has hit the Northern Hemisphere in the past five years.

  5. July 27, 2017 7:11 pm

    I understand that the Gakkel Ridge which is an extension of the mid Atlantic Ridge runs close to the North Pole via Iceland and Is active. Perhaps this could explain some of the ice coverage figures upon which the met office appears to depend, with its head in the clouds.
    There is a lot of activity beneath our feet; but noone appears to be taking much notice of it.
    Meanwhile, if you want to be scared, look at the activity around the Katla volcano in Iceland. It is statistically overdue to erupt and there are recent earthquake swarms nearby, vaguely causing concerns.
    This is a big volcano and the last time it erupted it caused famine across Europe and some say triggered the French revolution.
    Meanwhile the Met Office looks at its myopic computers.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      July 27, 2017 10:28 pm

      Solar minimums are connected with volcanic eruptions for reasons as yet unknown. Earthquakes are in sync with the solar wind and occur when it peaks. Which with the recent ones it just did.

    • rapscallion permalink
      July 28, 2017 7:57 am

      “This is a big volcano and the last time it erupted it caused famine across Europe and some say triggered the French revolution.”

      This is certainly true, but not the only factor. After we had the “Glorious Revolution” of 1688 we also acquired the Dutch system of finance – shares etc. It was this financial muscle that allowed us to rebuild the Navy to protect our growing Empire. France simply couldn’t keep up with the cost of it all and was forced to increase taxation again and again. Throw in the above eruption and hey presto !

  6. July 27, 2017 8:13 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  7. AZ1971 permalink
    July 27, 2017 8:53 pm

    All potential outcomes are probable, which makes refutation impossible.
    Climate science is not science because it cannot be falsified, one of the tenets championed by Popper’s Law of Falsifiability.

    • July 28, 2017 9:22 am

      Mann says Popper doesn’t count, as they are in the prediction business.

      Like Nostradamus.

  8. Green Sand permalink
    July 27, 2017 9:46 pm

    Ah, the ‘Jewel in the Crown’ believing its own plaudits, again.

  9. Jackington permalink
    July 27, 2017 10:04 pm

    It only goes to show – upgrade your computer and you get a different answer.

    • July 28, 2017 9:23 am

      Quicker, as well. It’s important to deliver nonsense forecasts quicker than they were once able to.

  10. John of Cloverdale, WA, Australia permalink
    July 28, 2017 1:14 am

    “Now any dogma, based primarily on faith and emotionalism, is a dangerous weapon to use on others, since it is almost impossible to guarantee that the weapon will never be turned on the user.”
    Isaac Asimov

  11. NeilC permalink
    July 28, 2017 6:08 am

    Settled science? 97% of the to$$ers believe it to be true, so we are told.

    More like pantomime; oh yes it is, oh no it isn’t.

  12. Athelstan permalink
    July 28, 2017 7:05 am

    The only thing the uncivil servants, green wonks, ill educated snowflakes and jobsworths who permeate the offices of the wet office is toeing the government line and begging for another superdooper computer so that all their statistical jiggerypokery can seem even less accurate than it was before.

    Why do the taxpayers of the nation fund this dreadful waste of space?

    WE know, private forecasters ie not funded by the taxpayer can easily do the job of weather prognostication without all the attendant green bollox and its blatant bombastic propagandizing.

    Defund it, make it [WET office] defunct, stick a stopper in the endless effluent of lies and specious ill informed rot.

    WE are tired of it, and the tory/lav/lib jerks who keep it all going.

  13. Europeanonion permalink
    July 28, 2017 8:23 am

    The chatterati were never at there most pessimistic when there was a period at the BBC when gardening programmes were all about the forthcoming drought caused by global warming and innovative ways to protect your plants.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/gardening/basics/weather_climatewarming.shtml

    This programme has now been archived and no wonder.

    We are so terribly at the mercy of fanciful fashions and those that attach themselves to such tales will try their damnedest to outdo each other in an endeavour to be an authority. It is said that ‘virtue its own rewards’, but having a bung from government or the Corporation obviously increases saintliness.

    In the Puritan era it bred extremism and messianic preaching. People were to be terrified by the power of the Lord communicated by the chosen ones, retributive Deity is one that the faith fights shy to propose.

    At the trials of the signatories of Charles’ execution a priest opined: “I was so popular that I became unknown even unto myself”. Once bitten by the bug Seers eventually become a burden to themselves and the maintenance of the tale involves the demolition of that which has value and which feeds the soul exchanged for spartan environments in which ‘the truth has space to propagate; the cuckoo in the nest. “The bigger the lie, the more it will be believed”, an eminent propagandist once said. Innocence has no place in a world of calculating individuals and the determination of politics to play at demigod; in this case, holding back the water!.

    • Athelstan permalink
      July 28, 2017 10:46 am

      I remember the meme went something akin to “prepare for a Mediterranean climate!!!!” circa the latter Bliar/macruin terror years, Yes, the papers, green mags like NS Nature et al and the idiot chatterati – it was the ‘direction of travel’, thing is yer know barring some major and likely catastrophic plate tectonic movement [perhaps we could invite that idiot jock from Plymouth CofFE to do a prog the boring twat that he is] …..Yup it pretty much, it looks like Britain is stuck at 50º N + and the eejits of weather prognositcation never got that………………….still, there is still no sign of any cogent “thinking” going on now in the salons of north London, it was ever thus.
      Plus, beyond where global warming spliced with, the cult mixed with virtue signalling and a misanthropic hatred verging on psychotic imbalance of their own kindred ie us….’we the people’ and if they don’t like us, why do they not go forth and multiply…………… elsewhere?

      “Mediterranean climate”, my arse it is.

      Cool, that’s all we’ll ever be and I liokes cool, it’s temperate and well – soooooooohhhhhhhhh cool.

  14. Tim Hammond permalink
    July 28, 2017 8:48 am

    Ah, the dangers of thinking short-term variation is a trend!

    A couple of dry cold winters and that’s the future, a couple of wet,warm winters and that’s the future.

    This is what happens with Groupthink, you get an utter inability to question the underlying assumption(s) and thus are led further and further into idiocy.

  15. tom0mason permalink
    July 30, 2017 11:08 am

    For the latest look at what 12 weather models are saying about the likely Autumn weather for the UK, have a look at gavsweathervids.com latest video at https://www.youtube.com/embed/BKSkmhEJnc8?ecver=1. These models are from weather outlets across the world from Brazil to Russia, Germany to Korea and Japan, and many others!
    The vast majority of these models incorporate climate model information, thus they are indicating warmer than usual temperatures (but that is what they usually say — and often correct themselves in the shorter term as they’ll have it wrong) but overall there is no reliable pattern to pick from all these models’ predictions. By the way ALL of them will update before any of the events they predict happen, and so NONE of them should be taken as any more accurate or reliable than a guess.

    IMO, as a piece of entertainment these weather models are as interesting as and TV soap opera.
    So what is your guess for the Autumn weather. (I’m going for average temperatures but more rain.)

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