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Hurricane Gert To Bring Weather To UK–But Met Office Don’t Know What!

August 17, 2017

By Paul Homewood

 

 

From Sky News:

 

 

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The aftermath of Hurricane Gert is expected to hit the UK, splitting the North and South with very different weather.

The storm, currently north of Bermuda, is expected to bring strong winds and rain in the North as it travels across the Atlantic and hits the UK on Sunday.

However, the South is set to bask in sunshine, with temperatures forecast to reach up to 27C on Monday as the low pressure system draws warm air up from Europe.

The storm is the second hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean this season. Pic: NOAA/NASA Goddard Rapid Response Team© Other The storm is the second hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean this season. Pic: NOAA/NASA Goddard Rapid Response Team

 

Met Office forecaster Greg Dewhurst said there was still a “little bit of uncertainty” when it comes to what the weather will bring.

“If the hurricane tracks a little bit further south, that rain will be a bit further south,” he said.

“At the same time, if it tracks further north then the drier, warmer air will be a bit further north too.”

The National Hurricane Centre said on Tuesday that Gert, the Atlantic Ocean’s second hurricane of the season, would be generating winds of up to 80mph before becoming calmer as it moves over colder Atlantic water on Thursday.

A tropical depression in the Atlantic Ocean formed the storm on Sunday, but it did not make landfall

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/weather/hurricane-gert-aftermath-to-split-uk/ar-AAqdvxG?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp

 

Encouraging that the Met Office don’t even know whether it’s going to hot and sunny, or wet and windy in just three days time!

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12 Comments
  1. Bloke down the pub permalink
    August 17, 2017 9:36 am

    Either way, it’ll be a Gert storm.

  2. HotScot permalink
    August 17, 2017 9:42 am

    I’ll find an old fishwife with a bit of seaweed. Bound to be more accurate than the MET office.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      August 17, 2017 11:41 pm

      I saw cows sitting down this morning and it was raining. Proof that it works.

  3. August 17, 2017 9:57 am

    What Gert will do if the latest GFS run is correct, is that it will break the spell of zonal weather started on the 20th of July. It will in effect veer the jetstream and the upper flow to become more meridional, and allow a large blocking anticyclone to form to the west of the British Isles if it comes off.

    https://www.xmetman.com/wp/2017/08/17/it-looks-like-hurricane-gert-will-finally-breaks-the-spell/

    • Gerry, England permalink
      August 17, 2017 11:42 pm

      Something else as GFS runs are rarely correct. The ECM model seems more reliable.

  4. Ian Magness permalink
    August 17, 2017 10:16 am

    The Met Office’s £30m computers were not good enough.
    The Met Office’s £125m supercomputers were, well, not super enough.
    Stand by for the demand for £250m mega-super-titanic computers that will be essential to predict “climate change”!
    One day the penny will drop that it’s not the computers that are the issue, just the underlying models programmed into them that are wrong. In the meantime, what’s not to like if you are a computer services contractor to the Met Office?

    • August 18, 2017 8:36 am

      The faster the computer the quicker the MO will have the wrong answer

  5. Jack Broughton permalink
    August 17, 2017 10:17 am

    If it was not for carbon dioxide the weather forecast would match the models no doubt. ******** rules.

  6. August 17, 2017 11:47 am

    “Met Office forecaster Greg Dewhurst said there was still a “little bit of uncertainty” when it comes to what the weather will bring.”

    I think Mr. Dewhurst could say that every day about every forecast.

    Let me rephrase it: “We don’t know what in the heck will happen–you’re on your own.”

    • Gerry, England permalink
      August 17, 2017 11:43 pm

      Before computer models it was much more accurate. You had a meteorologist use their knowledge and skill to interpret the data and charts, without added CO2.

  7. tom0mason permalink
    August 17, 2017 6:22 pm

    But it’s a model certainty as Gav explains here —

    The models know it’s all unknown.

  8. Jack Broughton permalink
    August 18, 2017 11:29 am

    Remains amazing that these supercomputer models can’t predict 3 days ahead but can predict the climate in 2050 etc.

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