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Arctic Refuses To Melt As Predicted

August 31, 2017

By Paul Homewood

 

 

accumulatedsmb

http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

 

 

Greenland’s melt season ended a month ago, and since last September the ice sheet has grown at close to record rates.

Much was made of the anomalously warm year in 2012, which was quickly linked to climate change.

image

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-thaw-nasa

 

I doubt whether Guardian readers will be allowed to read about the latest news.

 

 

Meanwhile Arctic sea ice extent is running well above the level of the last two years:

osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

 

This time last year the Guardian wheeled out the serially discredited Peter Wadhams to scare us all with threats of an Arctic death spiral:

image

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/18/ice-scientists-arctic-ice-disappearing-reduce-emissions-peter-wadhams

 

The only thing in a death spiral is the IQ of gullible Guardian readers.

22 Comments
  1. dave permalink
    August 31, 2017 1:43 pm

    It is absolutely correct that the snow mass balance in Greenland turned positive a couple of weeks early, but it is not quite right to say that all melting ended a month ago. Even as of yesterday, 14% by area had some melting – all perfectly normal, of course.

    Greenland is big enough to have different weather in different places!

  2. dave permalink
    August 31, 2017 1:57 pm

    By the way, I clicked on the ‘Related,’ above, ‘Your Time Is Up “Professor” Wadhams.’

    Deja vu all over again.

  3. August 31, 2017 2:04 pm

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    No real shrinking of Arctic sea ice in 10 years. No significant “global warming” for nearly 20 years. All this despite record CO2 emissions and record alarmist hot air spewed from experts and the fake news mainstream media!

    Mother Nature’s a beyatch!

  4. Jack Broughton permalink
    August 31, 2017 2:08 pm

    While I read your arctic ice blogs and those of Ron Clutz, I cannot claim any real understanding of the Arctic. It seems that the ice area is many Wadhams more than predicted by the gloomsters, but is the mass recovering enough to imply incipient global cooling or is this just normal variations?

    • August 31, 2017 3:06 pm

      You say: “I cannot claim any real understanding of the Arctic.” Well, join the crowd. Neither can anyone else, especially the global warming bunch. It ain’t easy and they begin below clueless.

      • dave permalink
        August 31, 2017 4:15 pm

        “…understanding of the Arctic…”

        It is all Ocean. In Summer it attains freezing temperatures – for three months. For the other nine months, it gets a whole lot colder. It is because of the way the Earth is shaped and the way it spins and the way it moves round the Sun.

        There. Now everyone really, really, understands it. No sarcasm intended. It is that simple.

      • dave permalink
        August 31, 2017 4:22 pm

        “In Summer it attains freezing temperature…”

        and some of the ice turns to water.

        “…colder…”

        and some of the water turns to ice.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 1, 2017 12:55 pm

        Pre-eminent polar scientists say – when they allowed to speak or are not too afraid to due to threats from the warmists – that the Arctic has a 60 to 70 year cycle and the satellite record is nothing like that length yet. There is also the asymmetric relationship between the two poles so with the Antarctic growing lately, the Arctic would shrink. That might be about to change.

    • September 1, 2017 7:09 pm

      One can hardly expect ice masses on this scale to recover over a couple of years. But that’s the thing – they’re not recovering – this is simply part of a cycle that could span many hundreds of years.

  5. August 31, 2017 3:40 pm

    “The only thing in a death spiral is the IQ of gullible Guardian readers.”

    That particular moment is long passed…. I was brought up on the Manchester Guardian, having been born near Manchester. That was a fine reputable paper, with excellent journalists amongst them the wonderful Neville Cardus. The Manchester Guardian sprang from old North Western Liberalism, of the Free Trade variety; true Liberalism, now debauched by those who have stolen and abused the word. The Guardian is hysterical trash. As also is the Independent. The Telegraph is turning into a celebrity trash rag, with moments of sanity (Booker of course). Journalism is dead. RIP.

  6. August 31, 2017 4:14 pm

    The top graph confuses me. The GT end August is higher than start September. Doesn’t that mean Greenland is gaining GTs every year?

    • August 31, 2017 4:23 pm

      It does not include ice loss from calving.

      • Anne Ominous permalink
        September 1, 2017 6:24 pm

        On the other hand, the rate of calving is highly dependent on the top / center mass of ice.

    • dave permalink
      August 31, 2017 4:24 pm

      The graph refers to the inland body of the ice cap, and does not take account of the fact that the ice slips off the edge of the island every year (‘calving’)

  7. August 31, 2017 5:11 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  8. tom0mason permalink
    August 31, 2017 11:36 pm

    And another paper shows no Mann made increase…

    The paper “Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years” by Horst-Joachim Lüdecke1 & Carl-Otto Weiss (https://benthamopen.com/FULLTEXT/TOASCJ-11-44).
    Their aggregated temperature reconstructions to a global mean they call G7, and reconstruction from the teased out harmonic structure of the temperature variations from the proxy records, both shown in the graphic Figure 3, are very similar to Abbott & Marohasy’s (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214242817300426 ).

    Yet another paper that does not support Mann’s hockey stick temperature uplift, and correctly shows the well documented MWP.

  9. songhees permalink
    September 1, 2017 1:13 am

    Latest books and documentary.
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    • CheshireRed permalink
      September 1, 2017 8:37 am

      Hi Dr Ball. Are you able to update us on your legal spat with Michael Mann? Last I heard you won a significant round and ‘effectively’ won the case. Is that so? Can you comment? Good luck with it whatever.

      • September 1, 2017 10:23 am

        CheshireBlue can tell you – this is the second time that John Sullivan at Principia has claimed Dr. Ball has trashed Mann in the court case. In neither case did he provide any evidence except his say so that this was so. Nothing happened the first time, and I gather Mann’s lawyer has said Sullivan’s claim is nonsense. One might say “he would say that, wouldn’t he?”, however, I would think he is probably closer to the truth than Sullivan.

        Whilst I hope and pray Mann is bollixed, I’ll believe it when I see it, and would not trust a word you read about the case on Principia Scientifica or whatever Sullivan’s site is called.

  10. September 1, 2017 11:22 pm

    All predictions of Arctic warming have failed because Arctic warming is not greenhouse warming. That was the title of my paper in Energy & Environment in 2011. You and all other Arctic observers would do well to study nd learn the science in it. It is not smart to keep writing if all you know is what IPCC has told you. I proved that the current Arctic warming is a result of a rearrangement of the North Atlantic current system at the turn of the twentieth century, There had been no warming at all for the previous two millennia.\ when rapid warming started suddenly. Kaufman, who discovered this, did not have accurate data for it nor did he understand what was going on. Luckily I was able to find accurate data about warming in NOAA Arctic report card for 2010. As figure 2 in my paper demonstrates, the warming had two phases. The initial warming was from start of the century to 1940. This was followed by a thirty year cooling period from 1940 to 1970. Ar that point warming resumed and has been going on ever since.The current group of observers jumped in at the end of the seventies when it was obvious that warming had started. They know nothing of what happened before. It is clear the greenhouse warming is entirely incapable of starting a high speed, long term warming from nothing. But greenhouse warming is the only thing they know and babble about. what they all babble about. And then complain that it gives them wrong results. What really happened was that for unknown reasons the North Atlantic current system changed and in the process redirected the Gulf stream water into deep Arctic. The Gulf Stream had been on a northerly course parallel to the East Coast and turned west into the North Sea, as Ben Franklin knew. The new North Atlantic current system directed the Gulph Stream further north which had the effect of starting the current warming. t\These guys still do not understand this because they were too lazy to read my paper which explains it all, This is c\what you get by believing the pseudoscience that IPCC just keeps spreading around.

    • September 2, 2017 11:22 am

      “All predictions of Arctic warming have failed because Arctic warming is not greenhouse warming. That was the title of my paper in Energy & Environment in 2011. You and all other Arctic observers would do well to study nd learn the science in it. It is not smart to keep writing if all you know is what IPCC has told you.”

      Um. The reason most of us are here is exactly BECAUSE all we know is NOT to trust what the IPCC tells us.

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