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Irma Update Sunday 5am ET

September 10, 2017

By Paul Homewood

 

cone graphic

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?cone#contents

The latest NHC bulletin still shows Irma tracking up the west coast of Florida, though they are still no sure where landfall could occur.

As I reported yesterday, the storm degraded somewhat over Cuba, and despite strengthening over water since, wind speeds are at 130 mph. NHC expect that strength to be maintained for another 12 hours before weakening.

 

image

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/100901.shtml?

 

This is the full discussion from NHC:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 128 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along with surface wind estimates of 110-115 kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. In addition, the aircraft data shows that the central pressure has fallen to 928 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, again making Irma a Category 4 hurricane. I

rma has made its long-awaited turn, with the initial motion now 325/7. For the next 36-48 h, the cyclone will be steered generally north-northwestward with an increase in forward speed between a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf Coast states and the northern Gulf of Mexico. After that, the system should turn northwestward and then move somewhat erratically near the end of its life as it merges with the low. The tightly-clustered track guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the new NHC forecast is very close to the previous one. The eye should move across the Lower Florida Keys in the next few hours. After that, the hurricane’s track almost parallel to the west coast of Florida makes it very difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf coast.

Given current trends, some additional strengthening could occur during the next several hours. However, vertical wind shear is increasing over Irma, and the shear is expected to become strong within 24 h. This, combined with land interaction, should cause at least a steady weakening from 12-36 h. The new intensity forecast is slightly lower than that of the previous advisory at those times, but it still calls for Irma to be a major hurricane at its closest approach to the Tampa Bay area. A faster weakening is likely after Irma moves across the Florida Panhandle and starts to merge with the aforementioned upper-level low, and the new forecast follows the trend of the previous one in calling for the system to decay to a remnant low by 72 h and to dissipate completely by 120 h.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/100901.shtml?

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5 Comments
  1. Joe Public permalink
    September 10, 2017 10:18 am

    As I post this, the ‘eye’ is circa 14km/hr

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-80.45,25.17,3000/loc=-81.320,24.337

  2. tom0mason permalink
    September 10, 2017 10:28 am

    Just a reminder —
    Even worse than the disaster that was hurricane Harvey is the number of scammers trying to make money from the awful events. As Krebs on security has it in Beware of Hurricane Harvey Relief Scams (at https://krebsonsecurity.com/2017/08/beware-of-hurricane-harvey-relief-scams/ ) if you wish to donate —

    The FTC also warns consumers not to assume that a charity message posted on social media is a legitimate, and urges folks to research the organization before donating by visiting charity evaluation sites such as Charity Navigator, Charity Watch, GuideStar, or the Better Business Bureau’s Wise Giving Alliance. The agency also reminds people who wish to donate via text message to confirm the number with the source before you donate.

    krebsonsecurity site includes links to these charity evaluation sites.
    No doubt the scammers are readying themselves for the generous but misinformed to donate to them with the latest disasters.
    Is there no depths to which soulless scammers will sink?

    • Sheri permalink
      September 10, 2017 12:58 pm

      Soulless scammers have no limits. Only a soul provides limits.

      The best suggestion I have heard is to send money to a business or individual you know in the Houston area that was affected. While not practical for all, charity person to person is still the best way to go. You don’t need a middle man in all cases.

  3. Alan Tomlin permalink
    September 10, 2017 12:44 pm

    We own a retirement home in South Fort Myers about 5 miles from nearest beach. Although we have been aware of hurricane risk to SW FL, we have always hoped that we would be sufficiently fortunate to escape a major hurricane hit…..that clearly is not to be……..the last 10 days viewing this unfolding disaster from its ominous start off the African coast (I have been viewing it from Canada) have been painful in the extreme. The next 15 hours will tell the tale for us in Ft Myers. We worry for our friends, neighbours, and the FL community we have loved for years….plan for the worst and hope for the best…..PS…..as a retired scientist I have been enjoying your blog posts since you began them.

  4. September 10, 2017 7:13 pm

    Rome drought ..of course it’s raining heavy there now
    Twitter shows me people good rain on Sep 1
    Another guy tweeted about rain on Sep 3 said last storm was May 19 and even before that it had been dry for weeks.

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