A 545Year Drought Reconstruction for Central Oregon
By Paul Homewood
I came across this old paper from 2002, but it shows just how variable climate has been in the past, this time in Oregon:
ABSTRACT
Using a 545-year ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa ) tree-ring chronology, we examine the drought history of central Oregon to: (1) determine the relationship among drought, ENSO (El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation), and the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and (2) compare the climatic sensitivity of ponderosa pine and western juniper ( Juniperus occidentalis ) to determine their suitability as interchangeable climate proxies. Our climatic reconstruction explained 35% of the variance in historical Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values and revealed severe drought periods during the 1480s, 1630s, 1700s, and 1930s. The most sustained drought period in our reconstruction occurred during the 1930s, with the most severe single drought year occurring in 1489. We found a significant ( p < .01) but weak relationship between our ponderosa pine chronology and ENSO and the PDO, explaining 9% and 12% of the variation respectively. Both ponderosa pine and western juniper record periods of severe regional drought, but western juniper is more sensitive to regional and seasonal climatic variations, whereas ponderosa pine is more responsive to temperature change. These differences suggest that their substitutability as climate proxies
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254248439_A_545Year_Drought_Reconstruction_for_Central_Oregon
All a bit dry! But the graphs tell the real story:
Fig. 4. Reconstructed Palmer’s Drought Severity Index (PDSI), 1455– 2000. Grey line is reconstruction; black line is 8-year moving average of reconstruction. Note pronounced periods of drought during the decades of 1480, 1620, 1700, and 1930.
It would appear that Oregon’s climate was actually much more volatile in earlier centuries, both in terms of wetness and dryness.
Comments are closed.
NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
The immediate conclusion from this is that the 545 year old pine has more sense than all the climate scientists added together: the wisdom of age!
Droughts are shamelessly exploited by organizations with agendas, I’ve seen official Australian govt reports that make a big song and dance about how a recent year was the ninth driest since 1900, but when you simply plot the rainfall since then you find out that droughts are fairly regular, happening roughly every ten years, so this recent one was actually the wettest drought since 1900.
An intriguing example of ‘Holiday Reading’ material!!!!!!!!!!
It was a Fanny Craddock!
She was the Robert Carrier of her day.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
Generally showing a steady pattern but you can’t miss the 30s drought.
Here is another paper (written 80 years ago) that reveals the history of Eastern Oregon climatic cycles…
ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/mwr/065/mwr-065-05-0175.pdf
Well done to the authors for avoiding the Mannian warmista tendency to link tree ring growth to temperature, not the rainfall variations, which are more logical. Only anecdotal evidence but the trees on my land in Surrey grow far better in wet years, regardless of temperature.
The real story turns out to be one of natural variability, as usual.
Tree rings can record precipitation, or temperature, whatever you want. What a beautiful instrument!
Would they record Woody Guthrie??
Here is a link to a 1995 Thesis about using bits of charcoal in lake sediment cores, back 9,000 years.
Click to access pub2223.pdf
There have been many such studies in the past 25 years in Oregon and Washington. Pollen analysis adds to the environmental information.
When all this work gets properly summarize there will be a regional understanding of the past environment, with climate implications part of that – for thousands of years.
Here is another Thesis, more recent, from lakes in Mt. Rainier National Park.
Click to access the_roles_of_humans_and_climatic_variation_on_the_fire.pdf
This one is from Central Washington University – we frequently attend presentations by the students and instructors at CWU.
[ Mount Rainier = MORA ]
off topic but interesting: http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/features/lunch-arrives-on-wrangel-island-and-230-polar-bears-show-up-for-the-feast/
I truly do not understand why people get excited when they see an animal. We are all living creatures. The most obscure bacterium is practically as complicated and evolved and scientifically interesting as the biggest bear. End (or beginning) of story.