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How global warming is drying up the North American monsoon – Or Not!!!

October 13, 2017

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Today’s junk science, courtesy of Princeton and NOAA:

 

 

image

In a report published Oct. 9 in the journal Nature Climate Change, a team of Princeton and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) researchers have applied a key factor in improving climate models — correcting for sea surface temperatures — to the monsoon.

 

 

The report’s authors include Salvatore Pascale, an associate research scholar in atmospheric and oceanic sciences (AOS); Tom Delworth, a lecturer in geosciences and AOS and research scientist at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL); Sarah Kapnick, a 2004 Princeton alumna and former AOS postdoc who is currently a research physical scientist at GFDL; AOS associate research scholar Hiroyuki Murakami; and Gabriel Vecchi, a professor of geosciences and the Princeton Environmental Institute.

When they corrected for persistent sea-surface temperature (SST) biases and used higher-resolution data for the regional geography, the researchers created a model that accurately reflects current rainfall conditions and suggests that future changes could have significant consequences for regional water resources and hazards.

“This study represents fundamental science relating to the physics of the North American monsoon, but feeds back onto weather to climate predictions and building resiliency for our water supply and responses to hazards,” said Kapnick. “I am excited about this leap forward to improve our models and for the potential applications that they will provide in the future to society.”

Their results highlight the possibility of a strong precipitation reduction in the northern edge of the monsoon in response to warming, with consequences for regional water resources, agriculture and ecosystems.

“Monsoon rains are critical for the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, yet the fate of the North American monsoon is quite uncertain,” said Pascale, the lead author on the paper. “The future of the monsoon will have direct impacts on agriculture, on livelihoods.”

Previous general circulation models have suggested that the monsoons were simply shifting later, with decreased rains through July but increased precipitation in September and October.

“The consensus had been that global warming was delaying the monsoon … which is also what we found with the simulation if you didn’t correct the SST biases,” Pascale said. “Uncontrolled, the SST biases can considerably change the response. They can trick us, introducing artefacts that are not real.”

Once those biases were corrected for, the researchers discovered that the North American monsoon (NAM) is not simply delayed, but that the total precipitation is facing a dramatic reduction — up to 40 percent.

“Because much of the NAM region critically depends on summertime monsoonal rainfall, the results of [this research] underscore the necessity of planning future water resource management around the likelihood of reduced monsoonal rains,” said Benjamin Lintner, an associate professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers University, who was not involved in this study.

That has significant implications for regional policymakers, explained Kapnick. “Water infrastructure projects take years to a decade to plan and build and can last decades. They require knowledge of future climate … to ensure water supply in dry years. We had known previously that other broadly used global models didn’t have a proper North American monsoon. This study addresses this need and highlights what we need to do to improve models for the North American monsoon and understanding water in the southwest.”

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2017/10/11/how-global-warming-drying-north-american-monsoon

 

Meanwhile, back in the real world:

multigraph

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/107/0/pcp/3/8/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

 

And, for good measure, annual precipitation:

 

multigraph

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/107/0/pcp/ytd/12/1895-2017?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

In any other walk of life, anybody who wrote such incompetent and dishonest work would be out of a job in 5 minutes flat.

Why Princeton University is allowing its prestigious name to be tarnished is a mystery.

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12 Comments leave one →
  1. October 13, 2017 11:29 am

    Thanks Paul. Another day another contrived model!

  2. October 13, 2017 11:56 am

    What piffle. Rains across the southwestern US generally occur in winter and spring. That is the reason for the spectacular desert blooms for which the “Arizona Highways” magazine became famous. Even a little rain and suddenly there is a stunning carpet of flowers. They are called “ephemerals” by botanists as they grow rapidly, flower and produce seed within a short time and then disappear until the next rainy season. In the East, we have the spring ephemerals which bloom in the spring. Following seed set, the foliage dies until the next spring.

  3. Marney, John-Paul permalink
    October 13, 2017 12:04 pm

    Dear Paul, I think it was Adelie penguins. Could be wrong. However, did you see the article that the breeding season for penguins had been disastrous because of the antarctic ice shelf?

    Kind Regards,

    JP

    ________________________________

  4. October 13, 2017 12:54 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  5. Sheri permalink
    October 13, 2017 1:11 pm

    “Why Princeton University is allowing its prestigious name to be tarnished is a mystery.” Money—what else does one suppose it is? The rich, spoiled, out-of-touch, we-can-rule-the-little-people alumni WANT this garbage taught. Uneducated people are much easier to control. They live in Mom’s basement while the foreign workers do all the actual work at a pittance of what a well-ecuated American would do. More money for the rich ruling class.

    (Note: I am not against rich people in general. I am against rich, spoiled, out-of-touch ones who want to stay rich by making sure all opportunities for others to get rich are blocked, demand “socialism” when communism is what they want, have a God complex, etc. The billionaires are the worst. Most are liberal and would not care how many people died to keep them rich. They are EVIL. I don’t know if money made them that way or their evil helped make them rich. Either way, they are hellbent on ruling the planet and using surfs to supply their every need.)

  6. Broadlands permalink
    October 13, 2017 1:27 pm

    Why Princeton University is allowing its prestigious name to be tarnished is a mystery.

    No it’s not? That’s where climate “expert” Michael Oppenheimer holds forth.

  7. Terbrugghen permalink
    October 13, 2017 2:42 pm

    I noticed this, and compared to the industrial CO2 output of Europe and the flaring of the Saudi Arabian penninsula, the equatorial band from west Africa to the horn appears to put the others to shame. . .
    https://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news/2016/11/new-space-based-view-human-made-carbon-dioxide?cmpid=horizontalcontent

  8. John Fuller permalink
    October 13, 2017 3:11 pm

    To quote Pascale, they do appear to have been tricked into “introducing artefacts that are not real.” However, as the last sentence makes clear, this paper is about trying to justify more research funding.

  9. October 13, 2017 5:01 pm

    It must be that post-modern science where the conclusion precedes the ‘study’.

  10. AZ1971 permalink
    October 13, 2017 8:03 pm

    I just finished reading the actual paper via sci-hub.cc (using the paper’s doi) and suffice it to say, there’s NOTHING useful for a conclusion. These authors’ findings conflict directly with those of two other published papers showing an INCREASE in precipitation; also, this is nothing but a report on model output, not correlated to even recent decadal climatological conditions.

    In other words “scientists”, AKA data torturers, played with a computerized graphical algorithm and then decided to publish the output, calling it “scientific”. It’s not. It’s farcical.

  11. October 14, 2017 10:28 am

    Makes you wonder, doesn’t it ? Will these money grubbing fantasists ever acknowledge that they lie, twist and distort, rather than having a go at some real science ? Sadly, I suppose that they have sufficiently indoctrinated themselves that they may never face and accept any scientific truth. How very pitiful.

  12. Dr Francis Manns permalink
    October 16, 2017 2:04 am

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/joylyxgksrle4k0/It%27s%20not%20the%20heat….pdf?dl=0

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