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Review Of 2017 Atlantic Season

November 12, 2017

By Paul Homewood

 2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map

Atlantic Hurricane Tracks – 2017

 

With the Atlantic now devoid of tropical cyclones, I trust we can declare the season closed.

As we all know, its been one of the busier seasons in recent years. But it may surprise many to find that it has not been that unusual.

 

There have been ten hurricanes this year, a total equalled or beaten on fourteen previous occasions.

 

image

 

Bear in mind as well, that comprehensive monitoring of the entire Atlantic basin only began in 1966. It is almost certain that hurricane numbers were greater prior to then.

There have been six major hurricanes this year, ie Cat3 and over. This is well below the record of eight set in 1950:

 

image

 

There were two Cat 5s, Irma and Maria, but again this is not unprecedented, as two such storms also occurred in 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005 and 2007.

 

Finally, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has totalled 230 this year.

The season of 1933 still remains way out in front. Again, remember that ACE was almost certainly underestimated in the early years because of the lack of observation.

 image

 

Globally, ACE is actually running below average this year, whilst the 24-month running average is also unremarkable.

image

 http://wx.graphics/tropical/

 

 

But I doubt if you will read any of these facts in the alarmist media.

 

Sources

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

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15 Comments leave one →
  1. November 12, 2017 4:59 pm

    I would lay money that you won’t hear this on the BBC.

  2. RAH permalink
    November 12, 2017 5:33 pm

    Nice job Paul. Good to be armed with the facts when the spin and hype comes.

  3. Guillermo Gefaell permalink
    November 12, 2017 5:42 pm

    It seems to be a +/- 60 years oscillation underlying Atlantic ACE. A Sun connection?

  4. Broadlands permalink
    November 12, 2017 7:51 pm

    I may be mistaken about the location but I recall someone here providing a source for historical evidence on hurricanes. They have been creating havoc long before “climate change” became fashionable.

    http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html

    • RAH permalink
      November 12, 2017 8:57 pm

      Yea but hurricanes these days are different because man has made them worse you know! The nearly 12 year hiatus the US had without a major hurricane striking the shores of the lower 48 was just luck you know. But an active season that ends that hiatus where hurricane Harvey stalled over the Houston area which is a major coastal city built on subsiding land and which is a natural drainage basin and thus flooded extensively occurred because man caused it! Amazing how [sarc off]

  5. November 12, 2017 9:52 pm

    There was also an effect from the transition from El Nino to La Nina. as Joe D’Aleo points out:

    https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2017/10/09/hurricane-science-not-fiction/

  6. Chris Lynch permalink
    November 12, 2017 10:01 pm

    Thanks for that Paul. The media here in Ireland have overdosed on stories suggesting that the hurricane season of 2017 is unprecedented. It’s good to have cold facts to counteract the bullshit and lies.

  7. mikewaite permalink
    November 12, 2017 10:15 pm

    I do not know how relevant it is to your discussion , but randomly browsing I came across the following:
    https://www.nonlin-processes-geophys-discuss.net/npg-2017-55/

    Nonlinear analysis of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea

    part of the abstract (and it is an open access article) reads :

    In this study, we perform a nonlinear analysis of the time series obtained from 1749 to 2012 of the occurrence of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The construction of the hurricane time series was carried out based on the hurricane database of The North Atlantic-basin Hurricane Database (HURDAT), and the published historical information. The Lyapunov exponent indicated that the system presented chaotic dynamics, and the time-series’ spectral analysis along with the nonlinear analysis of the hurricanes time series showed chaotic edge behavior. One possible explanation for this edge is the individual chaotic behavior of hurricanes, either by category or individually, regardless of their category, and their behavior on a regular basis.

    I do not even pretend to be able to understand the mathematics , but they do not appear to regard the hurricane record as containing any anthropogenic trend.

  8. November 12, 2017 11:28 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News.

  9. Stonyground permalink
    November 13, 2017 9:59 am

    OT but I have just read a book by Ben Goldacre. This is a guy that I have quite a lot of time for as he puts in a lot of work debunking pseudoscience and castigating bad science reporting in the press. He did however seem to have something of a blind spot when it came to the shonky science behind climate change alarmism, taking aim instead at the ‘Deniers’. So I was fully prepared for a chapter or two on the subject that would probably leave me spitting feathers. As it turned out the book didn’t mention the subject at all. I’m speculating that BG might be in the process of having an epiphany on the subject and might be about to cross over to the dark side.

    • dave permalink
      November 13, 2017 12:02 pm

      “…the dark side…”

      Where one’s eyes soon adapt.

      Exactly a year ago, there was hysterical excitement in the MSM about the “super hot Arctic.” Funny, there’s now’t about it today! Of course, it IS fifteen degrees C colder:

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      OTT and just out of interest: I found this tongue-in-cheek comment in an old article about number theory (and numberskullery):

      “The entire human race sprang from the eight souls in Noah’s Ark, and as 8 is not so perfect a number as 6, we have been living under a disadvantage ever since!”

    • Gerry, England permalink
      November 13, 2017 1:54 pm

      It has been noted that nobody of note has journeyed in the opposite direction. I have read a number of books by those who eventually wondered if it was true and that IPCC reports were factual. Often they were surprised at how bad it was, the so called ‘climate science’.

  10. Gerry, England permalink
    November 13, 2017 1:56 pm

    I don’t think I can recall anything that was labeled ‘unprecedented’ turning out to be anything of the sort. Thorough research presented here shows how much they are mistaken if they are not just plain lying.

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