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Arctic Ice Ignores Alarmist Predictions

November 21, 2017

By Paul Homewood


A year ago the media was full of fake Arctic heatwave news:



13 December 2016 • 9:14pm

The Arctic shattered heat records in the past year as unusually warm air triggered massive melting of ice and snow and a late fall freeze, US government scientists said on Tuesday.


The grim assessment came in the Arctic Report Card 2016, a peer-reviewed document by 61 scientists around the globe issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The NOAA report covers from October 2015 to September 2016, a period it said the Arctic’s average annual air temperature over land was the highest on record.

"The report card this year clearly shows a stronger and more pronounced signal of persistent warming than any previous year in our observational record" going back to 1900, NOAA Arctic Research Program director Jeremy Mathis told the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco, where the report was released.

"Those warming effects in the Arctic have had a cascading effect through the environment."

Climate scientists say the reasons for the rising heat include the burning of fossil fuels that emit heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere, southerly winds that pushed hot air from the mid-latitudes northward, as well as the El Nino ocean warming trend, which ended mid-year.

The Arctic’s annual air temperature over land was 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit (3.5 degrees Celsius) higher than in 1900, the report said.

The sea surface temperature in the peak summer month of August 2016 reached nine degrees Fahrenheit (five degrees Celsius) above the average for 1982-2010 in the Barents and Chukchi seas and off the east and west coasts of Greenland.

"Warm air and ocean temperatures in the fall led to a record-breaking delay in fall freeze-up," Perovich said, noting that the Arctic sea ice minimum from mid-October to late November was the lowest since the satellite record began in 1979.

Scientists added a section to the report about noteworthy records set in October and November 2016, even though that extended beyond the report’s typical time span.

More of the ice that freezes in the Arctic winter is thin, made of only a single year’s worth of freeze rather than thicker, more resistant ice built up over multiple years.

In 1985, almost half (45 percent) of Arctic sea ice was called "multi-year ice."

Now, just 22 percent of the Arctic is covered in multi-year ice. The rest is first-year ice.

In Greenland, the ice sheet continued to shrink and lose mass as it has every year since 2002, when satellite measurements began.

Melting also started early in Greenland last year, the second earliest in the 37-year record of observations, and close to the record set in 2012.


And a year later?


Arctic sea ice extent this October was the third highest since 2006, and continues to track recent years.




Most of the Arctic basin is full of 2 meter+ thick ice, in stark contrast to 2008:





The Greenland ice cap grew by almost record amounts in 2016/17, and has started off this season above average as well:




Temperatures across the Arctic have changed little in the last decade, and are at a similar level to the 1930s.




And even the explorer Pen Hadow had to give up his attempt to sail to the North Pole, after coming up against a barrier of thick ice only two weeks into his journey from Alaska:




As I pointed out a year ago, the usual band of suspects had picked on a single and not unprecedented weather event to “prove” that global warming was melting the Arctic.

Not for the first time they have been proved wrong.

  1. BLACK PEARL permalink
    November 21, 2017 6:39 pm

    Its not the news they’re looking for … it will get quickly buried

  2. John Fuller permalink
    November 21, 2017 6:51 pm

    I seem to remember an interview with Pen Hadow on the BBC Today programme back in August as he set out to sail to the North Pole. I can’t recall hearing a follow up interview after he failed. All part of the BBC’s balanced reporting I imagine.

    • quaesoveritas permalink
      November 21, 2017 7:40 pm

      I seem to recall people on the BBC News channel saying that they would follow his progress, but they soon lost interest when it was obvious that he wasn’t going to succeed.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      November 22, 2017 9:35 am

      The BBC really seems to have gone full-on Fake News since Brexit and Trump. I think they have convinced themselves that those events were so evil and wrong, and caused by fake news, that they can now “fight back” using fake news.

      Any semblance of balance, or nod to both sides of a story have gone out the window.

      Witness this story :

      An opportunity to bash the Tories but where was the BBC a few weeks agon when exactly the same was being said about renewables?

  3. November 21, 2017 7:23 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  4. Jack Broughton permalink
    November 21, 2017 7:35 pm

    I’m sure that prof Wadhams has an Al Goreithm to prove that this is just weather and that the end is indeed nigh. Peer-reviewed scientists will appear to claim that this is consistent with global warming and that without further funds the end is nigh.

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      November 21, 2017 10:45 pm

      Wadhams has taken over from Harold Camping….but not so successful at getting the money.

      • Nigel S permalink
        November 21, 2017 11:07 pm

        It’s a good thing we’ll soon have driverless cars, just in time for the rapture.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        November 22, 2017 1:49 pm

        Driverless cars is the latest subject where seemingly intelligent people talk complete drivel. As somebody commented somewhere in the world, once the first couple of people are killed in one they will be banned.

  5. November 21, 2017 7:36 pm

    We must remember to check the Telegraph on 13 December 2017 for this year’s update.

    • dave permalink
      November 22, 2017 7:57 am

      Here is the problem. A recent, professional, survey of the US public showed that 69% knew – correctly – that summer Arctic sea-ice extent is less than thirty years ago. This might give one some hope that they are knowledgeable about the subject. Doubts creep in though with the revelation that 38% think the North Pole is a place of thick ice over land, and, further, when it transpires that 82% do not think any country has territory in the Arctic – forgetting their own state of Alaska!.

      Total gloom sets in with the answers to the Question “Which could do more to raise sea level?” :

      Arctic sea 44%
      Greenland/Antarctica land 34%
      Himalaya mountains 13%
      Do not know 12%

      I do not suppose that the population of another country would give significantly smarter answers.

      So what does one do in a world full of gullible morons? Emigrate to Mars?

      • dave permalink
        November 22, 2017 8:04 am

        Correction: the proportion who thought melting Arctic sea-ice would raise sea level the most was 41%. So…only 41% do not know how things float.

      • dave permalink
        November 22, 2017 8:15 am

        Of course, some of that 41% will include people from the 38% who think that the Arctic Sea (sic) is land. They might understand Archimedes’ Principle. But I would not bet on it.

  6. November 21, 2017 7:52 pm

    Climate change alarmists seem to be unable to think in any terms but that of linear extrapolation. Their thought patterns seem to go ‘Arctic ice extent decreased in the couple of decades prior to 2012, ergo it will go on decreasing until there is no ice left and palm trees grow at the North Pole’. The possibility that ice extent may be cyclic never seems to enter their tiny little minds. And yet, a cyclic variation is borne out by historical events:

    The problem that alarmists have with any kind of cyclic hypothesis is that it does not fit with the CO2-is-evil hypothesis. Take away CO2 as the devil-substance to be avoided at all costs and the whole climate change movement collapses. Think of all that gravy train disappearing!

  7. November 22, 2017 9:43 am

    ‘unusually warm air triggered massive melting of ice and snow’ – the clue was in the ‘unusually’.

    If it was unusual then there was no trend to those conditions at that time of year, which of course fitted with it being a result of a string El Niño. Once again they aimed to pull the wool over the eyes of the gullible and stir up fears.

    • November 22, 2017 9:45 am

      Oops – strong El Niño

      • dave permalink
        November 22, 2017 1:53 pm

        Actually, also, dry, warm air is not effective at melting anything. There is too little of it and its heat capacity is too low, and it is a terrible conductor. In a condenser for a steam engine, for instance, you have a choice between injecting a cubic foot of water or FOUR THOUSAND cubic feet of air at the same temperature. Actually there is no choice. All historical condensers used water.

  8. November 22, 2017 1:57 pm

    It seems as though the hand wringing, alarmist, green media does not come in touch with reality. They should get out more. Since they only talk to and listen to each other, they are clueless as to the effects of their continued rantings.

    Nearby Pittsburgh’s Selena Zito called our election. She drove, crisscrossing the surrounding the Rust Belt to chronicle socioeconomic decay and deep-seated political disenchantment. While the east-coast media “elite” pontificated from their ivory towers, only speaking with others of their own “status,” they missed the story. They don’t care, either. To them, we in Middle America, are some sort of lesser species. They would require a visa and vaccinations to venture into such foreign and hostile territory. Another journalist, Rush has talked about (and whose name escapes me), recently ventured forth for quite a tour and was astounded at what he found. He also noted that people were not stupid and uninformed as he had always been led to believe by his colleagues.

    Finally, Zito says the following which I believe sums up the state of “reporting” today for all subjects: “The media follows the inside baseball of politics, imagining politics as a sport. The difference with politics is that the fans decide who wins. For reporters to pay more attention to the players than the fans is kind of getting it wrong.”

  9. tom0mason permalink
    November 22, 2017 5:30 pm

    The Arctic warming that occurred from about late Oct 2016 through to Jan 2017 was from some stratospheric warming, that was initiated by emissions from a solar coronal hole that occurred at the time.
    So NASA and NOAA, maybe we should figure why our burning of fossil fuels are affecting the sun.

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