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Letters To The Sunday Telegraph

January 29, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Tony Heller

 

 

Regular readers of the Sunday Telegraph will probably be aware that Bruce Denness regularly appears in the Letters column, writing about all sorts of topics. On several occasions he has written about his potty climate model.

For some reason, the ST keep on publishing his nonsense. As Booker commented to me yesterday, the best way to guarantee getting a letter printed by the Sunday Telegraph is to start by pointing out, on whatever subject, that “Booker is wrong”.

This particular letter, of course, follows on from one from the odious Bob Ward a couple of weeks ago. Ward is another who seems to get a free pass to the Letters column, whenever anybody has the temerity to challenge climate dogma.

 

It is a pity the ST did not bother to check Denness’ story before publishing. If they had, they would have found out that 2011 was a La Nina year, when global temperatures are naturally depressed. And, as we know, we are still seeing the lingering effects of the record El Nino of 2015/16.

Allowing for margins of error, temperatures last year, according to HADCRUT4 were no higher statistically than in 2005, or for that matter 1998. Moreover, they ended the year 0.09C lower than the 2017 average, reflecting the unwinding of the El Nino effect. 

 

image

 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.4.6.0.0.annual_ns_avg.txt

 

 

Data from satellites show that last year was not even as warm as 1998.

 

image

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

 

If Denness’ model is right, we can expect this 20 year standstill in temperatures to carry on till 2030.

 

I have written this to the Telegraph in reply:

 

Bruce Denness claims that global temperatures have risen by 0.25C since 2011, (Letters 28th Jan). What he forgets to mention is that temperatures were depressed in 2011, because of La Nina at that time.

In fact, according to the HADCRUT4 dataset he quotes, there has actually been no statistically measurable warming at all since 2005.

Meanwhile, global temperatures have been steadily falling in the last 12 months, as the effects of the record El Nino of 2015/16 gradually wear off.

 

Perhaps others might send similar letters, in the hope that quantity counts!

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13 Comments
  1. quaesoveritas permalink
    January 29, 2018 12:43 pm

    Has Dr Denness ever made the details of this “climate model” public, in order that it can be assessed and validated?
    Given that it is apparently very accurate in its predictions, he should be pleased to share details with everyone.

  2. Nigel permalink
    January 29, 2018 12:50 pm

    In a world of sensible grown-ups, none of us would have to waste time with any of this “How many angels are dancing on the pin?” nonsense.

  3. quaesoveritas permalink
    January 29, 2018 12:55 pm

    I found this:
    http://wwwf.imperial.ac.uk/naturalsciences/options/unified_projects/files/projects/341/Dr%20Bruce%20Denness%20paper%20on%20forecasting.pdf

    I don’t fully understand this but other might.

    I am not sure where CO2 features in this “model” or “equation”.

    • Nigel S permalink
      January 29, 2018 1:36 pm

      ‘at a conference organised by the Institution of Civil Engineers.’ Little more need be said except to note that it seems to be based on all his chakras being aligned in exactly 17,344,396,281 BC.

    • January 29, 2018 2:25 pm

      quaesoveritas:

      You don’t really need to understand your link; for it suffers from the reductive mindset that plagues most, of not all scientific climate output these days, whereby there is the belief that linear, solvable equations are capable of prediction in this chaotic system which has multiple stable states often changing in a random fashion.

      My comment here in no way denigrates the scientific community as the increasing understanding of linear equation has produce remarkable results and is vital where closed systems protected by the Ceteris Parabus principle (all things being equal) are being considered.

      Overall if Climate Change is to be considered then the Reductive Mindset needs to be also changed.

      James Gleick’s book: “ Chaos” is well worth a read (ISBN 0 7474 0413 5); but maybe a bit out of date now.

  4. Rowland H permalink
    January 29, 2018 5:55 pm

    Beats me how the world’s average temperature can be measured to the nearest 0.01 of a degree!

    • January 31, 2018 9:40 am

      And then ‘adjusted’ by far more than that.

  5. January 29, 2018 6:17 pm

    “his potty climate model.”

    Bruce Denness should try polishing his climate model before putting it back in his potty.

    Hopefully, next time he’ll use Plasticine instead.

  6. January 29, 2018 10:00 pm

    Reblogged this on Roald J. Larsen.

  7. January 30, 2018 12:37 pm

    His ludicrous comment about the England cricket captain should have been enough to send the letter immediately to the right container, he had gastroenteritis:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/42673854

    • dave permalink
      January 31, 2018 9:54 am

      “…ludicrous comment…”

      What are we referencing?

  8. tom0mason permalink
    February 2, 2018 3:09 pm

    Slightly off topic but Piers Corbyn has issue a challenge to the BBC’s darling David Attenborough in his video https://youtu.be/qOV2qXjWKHM

    • quaesoveritas permalink
      February 2, 2018 3:38 pm

      I think that is a few years old.

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