Skip to content

US Big Freeze Is Adjusted Out Of Existence By Noaa

February 16, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

 image_thumb107

Weather records have tumbled across North America, with freezing temperatures even in the southern US.

The most extreme arctic blasts, blamed on a weather pattern known as the polar vortex, were said to have affected nearly 190 million people.

In Kentucky, an escaped prisoner turned himself in to get out of the cold.

Some parts of the Midwest hit -26C (-14F), as low as the Antarctic coast in winter, and much colder than the inside of a domestic freezer.

Temperature records were shattered in states across the US, including Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Michigan, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-25647963

 

Remember that record breaking cold spell which large parts of North America suffered through last month? The worst affected parts were the East coast and Midwest.

It might surprise citizens in those parts to learn that the temperature during January was little colder than average. In the Northeast for instance, the region that includes New England along with NY, PA, NJ, DE and MD, temperatures look positively mild.

 

canvas

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/101/0/tavg/1/1/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

Of course, the record cold did not last all month, and there were a couple of mild spells later in the month.

But how does the NOAA summary above compare with the actual temperature data on the ground?

Last month, I analysed one climate division in New York State,  “Central Lakes”. The analysis showed how the 1940s had been cooled by about 3F at every single station in the division with data records for then and now, with the exception of the international airport at Syracuse.

So let’s take this same group of stations, which are all high quality USHCN ones, and see how they compare with NOAA’s declared version for last month.

According to NOAA, last month’s mean temperature was just slightly less than the 1901-2000 average, similar to the overall Northeast trend.

 canvas

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us/30/10/tavg/1/1/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

 

In my previous work, I compared current temperatures with January 1943. According to NOAA, the average temperature for Central Lakes was 20.8F last month, compared with 18.7F in January 1943.

In other words, it was 2.1F warmer last month than in 1943.

The actual temperatures recorded in January 1943 are below, and come from the Monthly Climatology Report for NY State at the time.

 

image

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/01/25/new-yorks-temperature-record-massively-altered-by-noaa/ 

 

Take a close look at Ithaca (2), which the Monthly Report clarifies is Cornell University  (see here) – the 1943 temperature was 20.6F. (Note that the temperature at the other Ithaca site is even higher!)

The official Northeast Regional Climate Center have a separate page for Ithaca Cornell, as it is long running, high quality, well maintained, and representative of the area.

image

image

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/wxstation/ithaca/ithaca.html

 

So the average mean temperature last month was 19.6F, which means it was 1.0F colder than in January 1943.

Recall that NOAA say Central Lakes was 2.1F warmer last month than in January 1943. That makes a total difference of 3.1F.

We can check last month’s temperature against the original station record, shown below.

This shows an average of 20F, slightly higher than NRCC. However, note that the entry for 1st Jan is missing. It was exceptionally cold that day. If we add that back, we end up with an average of 19.4F. (The daily numbers all seem to agree, so I presume there is a small rounding error here)

image

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search

 

In my post last month, I listed five other stations in the division. Unfortunately, three have missing data last month, Avon, Dansville and Hemlock. The latter for instance has 9 days missing:

 

image

 

But if we look at the two with full data, Auburn and Geneva, we find the same pattern as Ithaca. That is, last month was colder than January 1943:

image

image

 

  • Auburn -  Jan 2018 = 20.5F    :    Jan 1943 = 22.2F  : Diff –1.7F
  • Geneva –    Jan 2018 = 21.0F   :    Jan 1943 = 22.3F  : Diff –1.3F

 

So at the three sites of Ithaca, Auburn and Geneva, we find that January 2018 was colder than January 1943 by 1.0, 1.7 and 1.3F respectively.

 

Yet NOAA say that the division was 2.1F warmer last month. NOAA’s figure makes last month at least 3.1F warmer in comparison with 1943 than the actual station data warrants.

Could there possibly be such a large difference within the Central lakes division? It seems impossible.

New York is split into ten climate divisions all of a similar size, so it is a relatively small area. The divisions are also structured to be of similar climatic nature. (They would avoid mixing coastal and mountain areas, for instance).

image

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/maps/us-climate-divisions.php

 

It is quite inconceivable that there could be such large variations within such a small area.

 

Clearly NOAA’s highly homogenised and adjusted version of the Central Lakes temperature record bears no resemblance at all the the actual station data.

And if this one division is so badly in error, what confidence can there be that the rest of the US is any better?

 

Sources

Station data for January 2018 is here:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/search

Advertisements
33 Comments
  1. February 16, 2018 7:07 pm

    Welcome to the Adjustocene.

    • Mack permalink
      February 16, 2018 8:21 pm

      Yup. Just don’t believe your lying eyes.

  2. Stonyground permalink
    February 16, 2018 7:08 pm

    If the NOAA go on claiming that it is always getting warmer when people are freezing their arses off they are going to lose all credibility. This is a good thing.

  3. R2Dtoo permalink
    February 16, 2018 7:20 pm

    One can’t get the “warmest year evah” if you start out with a cold Jan. Couldn’t have that! This gets really old – time for serious “special council” look at all of this.

  4. February 16, 2018 7:27 pm

    There is no doubt the extraordinary cold snap that ran between 12/25/17 and 1/7/18 was just that: extraordinary. The first 12 days of February in the Central Plains has a cold temperature anomaly of close to 10 degrees Celsius below normal.

    Part of the explanation is the January thaw that followed the extreme cold of the first seven days. If the total fourteen days period had been recorded in a single month or single year it would have had a greater effect on the average temperatures for either December of January. IT WAS COLD TO BEHOLD. I drank my coffee outside New Years Day (just to prove it could be done – it was -20 below F. (-29 C). My neighbor saw -33 F on his thermometer New Years Eve driving home from a celebration.

    Our latitude in Nebraska is similar to Madrid’s.

  5. February 16, 2018 7:54 pm

    I live in the Midwest U.S. and it was cold last month (colder than average) with 8 days below 0 deg F, the coldest was on 16 January at -11.7 deg F (-24.3 deg C). But there were a few warm days when the morning temperatures were in the 50s. (11 January it was +59.5 deg F and on the 22nd it was 57 degrees F) So I wonder if average temperature is misleading and a more accurate assessment might be in daily variability – the difference between the daily high and low temperature.
    But that is probably off the main point. I agree that it seems like NOAA might be playing with the numbers – that the numbers they display might not be actual measured temperatures but rather adjusted temperatures.

  6. A C Osborn permalink
    February 16, 2018 8:03 pm

    The other big problem for me is how can Modern Weather Stations have “Missing Data”?
    Surely these are AWS stations?

    • Bloke down the pub permalink
      February 17, 2018 10:56 am

      Unfortunately, three have missing data last month, Avon, Dansville and Hemlock. The latter for instance has 9 days missing:

      Perhaps either the solar panels powering an automated system were covered with snow, or the little guy whose job it is to go and check the readings took one look at the conditions and said ‘sod that for a game of soldiers’.

  7. Judy Ryan permalink
    February 16, 2018 9:39 pm

    Maybe the fraudsters put self adjusting algorithms in and they can’t control them anymore. Or are they so stupidly arrogant that they still think they can get away with this criminal behaviour.

  8. RAH permalink
    February 16, 2018 10:31 pm

    January 2nd Indianapolis tied it’s record low set in 1887 at -12 deg. F.
    Lowest temperature ever recorded in the entire state was -27 F in 1994.
    On Monday, January 1st, I went into the terminal in Anderson, IN (25 miles north if Indianapolis) to take out a load. When I turned the key over on the truck the truck thermometer read -15 F. The truck would start but would not keep running because the diesel fuel, despite being treated, had gelled in the fuel lines and filter.

    They can adjust the record all they want but people know that the temperatures the last week of December and the first week of January were well below what we are used to here and lower than many of the kids had ever experienced. Lots of frozen pipes. Lots of emergency furnace failures. Lots of cars that failed to start.

  9. roger permalink
    February 16, 2018 10:45 pm

    I have had similar misgivings about the CET records ever since Philip Green ceased keeping his own parallel CET record to keep them honest.

    • mikewaite permalink
      February 17, 2018 8:35 am

      The CET record goes back 100s of years . It is part of our nation’s heritage . To fiddle with it is equivalent to rewriting the Domesday Book or bringing in Tracey Emin to repaint the Lindisfarne Gospel in a more acceptable , modern , style.

  10. February 16, 2018 11:31 pm

    Another example of NOAA perpetrating a climate fraud on the rest of us. A brazen fraud at that.

  11. Broadlands permalink
    February 17, 2018 2:17 am

    According to NOAA (always subject to “adjustment”?)… The coldest US months were these.. DEC, 1983, JAN, 1979, FEB, 1936, MAR, 1965, APR, 1920, May 1917, JUN 1907, JUL, 1915, AUG, 1927, SEP, 1965, OCT, 1925, and NOV, 1911.

    But.. “The most extreme arctic blasts, blamed on a weather pattern known as the polar vortex, were said to have affected nearly 190 million people.”

    The polar vortex is a natural condition and is not subject to our added CO2. So…which is it? Cold winters and hot summers… the usual sequence of events…caused by natural variation? Can we have it both ways?

  12. John F. Hultquist permalink
    February 17, 2018 5:26 am

    Very interesting. Thanks for doing these.
    With reading of the “adjustments” time after time, the thought continues to grow that these data summaries are “not fit for purpose.”
    Our local weather service offices produce a 7 day forecast and provides a detailed 3-day history.
    Anything else NOAA reports takes more time and effort to analyze and understand than the average citizen can muster.
    ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

    The cold eased in the eastern part of NA, but is now flowing into the western region.
    For example, Spokane, WA is expected to get down to 3°F. (-16°C) next Monday night (aka Tues. A.M.). The previous few days the low was just about freezing.
    Some places are getting strong winds (30+ mph; gusts to 50), and snow at many locations.

    • Broadlands permalink
      February 17, 2018 7:58 pm

      The Smithsonian’s “World Weather Records” for Spokane, WA reveal that in 1937 the January low was 9.5°F. And in February 1936 it was 17°F. The mean minimum for Spokane in January 1930 was minus 8°F. (US Weather Bureau data). The measuring stations have changed in Spokane, but in the 1930s it was probably Felts Field.

  13. Bitter@twisted permalink
    February 17, 2018 6:26 am

    It’s what greens do.
    They lie.
    It’s for the “cause”.

  14. Athelstan permalink
    February 17, 2018 7:14 am

    Why would they lie?

    Grants, mortgages, soros, they cannot help themselves, political prejudice – we8Trump.

    Where did the truth fly off to, hiding with that mythical cadre – the real scientists – I presume.

    Altogther some forensic stuff Paul, well done. Though, what also intrigues me greatly – as someone pointed out (A C Osborn) above “missing data” – why, what are they doing, sleeping on the job, computer, apps, algoreriddles – not working?

    And roger about the CET – likewise mate.

  15. CheshireRed permalink
    February 17, 2018 8:53 am

    They’ve progressed from revising historical records to adjusting current ones even before they’re published. Means less likelihood of snoopers comparing old data sets with revised ones and uncovering the scam. Neat. Corrupt, obviously, but still neat.
    Trump has a lot of swamp-draining still to do.

  16. Phoenix44 permalink
    February 17, 2018 10:47 am

    The data make no sense. If 2018 followed the same pattern as 1943 in terms of how the various areas correlated, then clearly 2018 was significantly colder. If it did not, why not, and if it can vary by so much, then the whole idea of homogenisation and interpolation fails.

    Either 2018 was warmer and the whole thing falls apart or it was not and NOAA are making up numbers.

  17. RAH permalink
    February 17, 2018 12:32 pm

    You know they’re going to have to do a bunch more “adjusting” before this winter is over. Almost all of Europe and much of the US are going to be much colder than average in March. Strong pattern for severe winter weather in the Midwest and East in the US starting about Feb. 27th is emerging. Would not be surprised to see N. Florida get it’s third snow event this winter. Just depends how far south the blocking high in Canada comes down.

    • Athelstan permalink
      February 17, 2018 2:33 pm

      Us lot, here in the UK don’t know what cold weather is, well admittedly not like the States and Canada experience. However, Feb has been on average (relatively for Britain) cold, December was cold relatively and it looks as though late Feb early March will be cold with a blocking high over the European continent feeding in easterlies over western Europe into Britain and at this time of year, that’s not a warm direction.

      NTZ – Pierre’s take

      I wonder Paul, how are the UK winter av’ T’s in 17/18 matching up?

      • RAH permalink
        February 17, 2018 7:38 pm

        Starting tomorrow we in the Midwest ad East US are in for a nice warm up for 8 to10 days. Highs in the high 50’s F some days and we may even break 60. But towards the end of the month we’re in for another good cool down. Colder than average temps may last well into April.

        Right now here in Indiana at my place about 25 miles NNE of Indianapolis temp is 34 deg. F with just a few flakes of snow falling intermittently.

      • Athelstan permalink
        February 17, 2018 8:23 pm

        Currently 38F here, falling to 34 later – not too bad, i’d imagine though 34 ºF over in Indiana is most welcome news – 60ºF ! even better, but as you say, we aren’t out of the ‘woods’ – quite yet.

  18. February 17, 2018 9:52 pm

    The only cure for NOAA/GHCN & NASA/GISS is defunding. These four letter folks are beyond reform like some of our three letter agencies.

  19. Broadlands permalink
    February 18, 2018 12:55 am

    According to NOAA, subject to “innovative” adjustments, In 1978-79 the Northeast region of the US experienced the wettest average WINTER on record. One year later, 1979-80 was the driest average WINTER on record. An alarming development?

  20. Streetcred permalink
    February 18, 2018 7:27 am

    Identify who it is at NOAA that is the responsible manger and the acolytes working in that team. Identify them, isolate them, and investigate them. Then FIRE their azzes !

  21. Max Sawyer permalink
    February 18, 2018 12:17 pm

    Unfortunately, religions (and that is what warmism has become) pay no heed to data. Faith without proof is all.

  22. Philip Mulholland permalink
    February 18, 2018 2:27 pm

    Good example here of a cold air outburst from Eastern Canada:-
    Cold Air Outburst 17 Feb 2018

    NullSchool Weather Model 17 Feb 2018

    Winter continues.

  23. LOL@Klimate Katastrophe Kooks permalink
    February 19, 2018 10:38 am

    Can we start up a competing citizen temperature collection mechanism? If we get enough people, we might just catch NOAA in the act of fiddling with temperatures to achieve their political agenda… especially if several of those people are sited near NOAA’s temperature stations.

    It wouldn’t take much equipment, all we really need is accurate internet-enabled thermometers, sited in a shaded area, and configured to forward their data to a NALOPKT.server (or WUWT, perhaps?).

    Or is there already someone doing this, who has the data with which we can catch NOAA in the act?

Trackbacks

  1. Delingpole: NOAA Caught Adjusting Big Freeze out of Existence – The Ray Tribune

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: