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It’s Called Weather, George!!

February 26, 2018
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

image

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/968074530529972224

 

Arctic meltdown silly season is in full swing again!

 

DMI show the same spike:

 

meanT_2018

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

But is it an “off the scale event”?

Unfortunately for poor George’s credibility, the answer is no. We had very similar conditions back in 1976:

 

meanT_1976

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

DMI show that a tongue of milder than usual air air has pushed up from the Atlantic, and when that happens it has a disproportionate effect on Arctic temperatures:

 

temp_latest.big

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather.uk.php 

And the cause is crystal clear – a combination of deep low pressure off the northern coast of Canada, and high pressure to the north of Scandinavia:

 

mslp_latest.big

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather.uk.php

 

If we go back to March 1976, we find a very similar set up, as far as the Scandinavian high is concerned:

 image

image

 

And as now, the meteorological set up then brought cold weather and snow to the UK:

 

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/archive-hidden-treasures/monthly-weather-report-1970s

 

Poor George needs to learn the difference between weather and climate!

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53 Comments
  1. Ian Magness permalink
    February 26, 2018 8:29 pm

    Wasn’t there a spike of not dissimilar magnitude early in 2017 Paul? Did that not reach the best part of 10C above long-term average? And was it not back to normal by about mid- or end-March?
    Funny how the MSM went bananas about that but omitted to discuss the fall back to normal within weeks.

    • Old Englander permalink
      February 27, 2018 9:55 am

      Nor the -60C in (populated parts of) Siberia, snow in the Sahara (repeated this year), Tesco rationing iceberg lettuce after frosts destroyed the Spanish crop …

  2. Green Sand permalink
    February 26, 2018 8:39 pm

    Tweet from Ryan Maue | weather.us

    “Extreme Arctic temperature spikes occur frequently as warm, moist oceanic air arrives either from the Pacific, Atlantic, or thru the Labrador Sea. This chart looks like a heart EKG but highlights the wild winter-time variability in the Arctic w/temp spikes 2004-2018.”

    From GWPF ‘Tweets”

    • CheshireRed permalink
      February 27, 2018 10:49 am

      That’s a very good tweet indeed. Someone should nail it to the Guardians front door.

  3. Green Sand permalink
    February 26, 2018 8:41 pm

    So good I said it twice, now I try and work out how I managed it!

  4. Harry Passfield permalink
    February 26, 2018 8:46 pm

    Monbiot probably thinks the film ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ was a documentary. Come Friday he’ll be found in the British Library burning books to keep warm!

    • BLACK PEARL permalink
      February 26, 2018 9:06 pm

      All of the climate documentaries are commissioned … the conclusions and narrative are predetermined by the buyer.
      Just read that the Irish Govt (EU inspired know doubt), paid journalists in the main papers to report on the benefits of more immigration. Just puppets
      All news appears to be bought & paid for to steer ‘the flock’

      • markl permalink
        February 27, 2018 3:41 am

        +1 It’s part of “the plan” but you’d be called a conspiracy theorist for pointing it out. Control the media and you control the people is part of their deceit.

      • CheshireRed permalink
        February 27, 2018 10:51 am

        Yep. Look how every time a sceptical event or paper is immediately ‘rebutted’ by an alarmist paper. Alarmism on demand.

      • bob permalink
        February 28, 2018 5:50 pm

        You hit the nail there. The CIA has for decades had editors in reuters and AP who then control the narative feeds to the media. Thats why all those ‘russians are coming’ and ‘putin ate my homework’ stories in the Times, Guardian, BBC, WaPo, New york times etc etc not only tell the same biased story but even have the same sentences. Just marvel at how they all exaggerate with the same adjectives.

  5. Chris, Leeds permalink
    February 26, 2018 8:52 pm

    The direct analogous situation to the pressure pattern this week (‘cold’ blocking high stretching from Russia to Scandinavia and then to Greenland) was experience in the same period in February 1962 – this also gave a very cold late February and start to March in Britain and a mild ‘jump’ in the Arctic. Mid February 1972 had something similar – and you can see similar fluctuations in Arctic temperature in those years.

    • dave permalink
      February 26, 2018 10:05 pm

      The childish propaganda is just “swing an’ a miss,” “swing an’ a miss,” … on and on…… and on…

      • dave permalink
        February 26, 2018 10:12 pm

        I notice from “Grid Watch” that, in respect of electrical power, coal production and nuclear production and import from the continent are all “flat-out.” There is some reserve of gas plant …but I wonder about future winters…

    • bob permalink
      February 28, 2018 5:57 pm

      Note these cold snowy winters (1962, 1972, 1981, 1991, 2001, 2010, 2018) form a rhythmic pattern! Amazingly in synch with the 11yr solar cycle. Now who could have predicted this year and the next 3 yrs will have fewer sunspots and thus colder winters? Guess what, there’s unlikely to be snow in kent in the winter of 2025, but almost certain to be snow in 2031. Thats climate change for you. Regular as clockwork and millions of years in progress.

  6. February 26, 2018 10:25 pm

    It’s worth visiting twitter and seeing the deranged comments of many of Monbiots followers

    • HotScot permalink
      February 27, 2018 12:03 am

      I like Monbiot, when he sticks to his chosen subject, Zoology.

      Quite how it qualifies him to comment publicly on climate change however, I’ll never know.

      And in the cause of full disclosure, my daughter’s a Zoologist and by her own admission knows sod all about climate.

  7. The Old Bloke permalink
    February 26, 2018 10:48 pm

    I have been following the temperatures of the Arctic during the SSW event and it was a short lived event that created about 5 days of mildish air over the Arctic and now as I type this temperatures and very cold temperatures at that are flooding back into the arctic circle. It is Minus 32 at the North Pole. I’m sure those temperatures will melt the Arctic ice.

    • Bloke down the pub permalink
      February 27, 2018 10:14 am

      ‘DMI show that a tongue of milder than usual air air has pushed up from the Atlantic, and when that happens it has a disproportionate effect on Arctic temperatures:’

      And all that heat, once its got up as far as the Arctic circle, is only going in one direction, up through the atmosphere into space. Nature just demonstrating how it gets rid of excess heat.

      • A C Osborn permalink
        February 27, 2018 12:33 pm

        Exactly, it is COOLING the Planet, they are too stupid to see it.
        Just like when the Satellites show the Atmosphere slightly warmer, it is heat leaving.

  8. roger permalink
    February 26, 2018 11:00 pm

    Did anyone else hear the crap put forward by Shukman on the BBC 10 oclock news?
    Something about very warm air reaching the stratosphere above the arctic circle which then dropped down causing arctic warming which caused the jet stream to change from it’s usual west to east flow to an east to west flow, dragging the cold air from Russia to these here parts with a resultant sudden heat wave in Siberia!!
    We are doomed without doubt.

    • February 26, 2018 11:10 pm

      Heatwave in Siberia? Forecast for Omsk tomorrow is -16C day, -24C night.

    • John F. Hultquist permalink
      February 27, 2018 12:43 am

      . . . very warm air reaching the stratosphere above the arctic circle . . .
      Barking mad.
      Dog’s breakfast.
      B. S.

      That ought to cover his nonsense — in English and similar.

      The DMI server at: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
      . . . has an “arkiv” list on the left side (aka Archives)
      I looked at these charts a few years ago.

    • Sheri permalink
      February 27, 2018 3:54 am

      At least our weatherman has the sense to call it less cold. He seems to realize that calling a rise from -20F to -5F really isn’t really a “warm up”.

    • AngryManxy permalink
      February 27, 2018 8:03 am

      If you have a look at the stratospheric temperature animation on netweather.tv it does show a marked warming which can, in extremis, reverse the direction of the polar jet and drag cold air to the UK from the continent. However, the reason for the warming is slightly beyond the ecomaniacs’ control as it is as a result of Mr Sun and his solar wind!

    • February 27, 2018 10:38 am

      If he said that he is grossly in error.

      The SSW has nothing to with “warm air reaching the stratosphere”. Temps in the stratosphere have risen because of compression, and not heating, because it has collapsed into the lower atmosphere

      If you can find any links, I will take him up on that

      • February 27, 2018 11:21 am

        Paul The Met Office says this about SSW:

        “Sometimes the usual westerly flow can be disrupted by natural weather patterns or disturbances in the lower part of the atmosphere, such as a large area of high pressure in the northern hemisphere. This causes the Polar Jet to wobble and these wobbles, or waves, break just like waves on the beach. When they break they can be strong enough to weaken or even reverse the westerly winds and swing them to easterlies. As this happens, air in the stratosphere starts to collapse in to the polar cap and compress. As it compresses it warms, hence the stratospheric warming.”

        See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/how-weather-works/sudden-stratospheric-warming

      • Dave P permalink
        February 27, 2018 11:51 am

        Piers Corbyn at http://www.weatheraction.com comments (1/3 down home page on right)

        “Some media report this (#SSW) as if it’s something to do with Global Warming but it’s the opposite. It’s a Solar driven phenomena which starts at the top of the stratosphere after which temperature and pressure waves transmit slowly downwards. It involves temperatures “warming” from -75C to -35C (not warm!) and would better be called Sudden Stratospheric Waves (also #SSW).”

      • dave permalink
        February 27, 2018 2:14 pm

        Everybody getting their knickers in a twist, including the Met Office public relations machine.

        SSW is a balanced phenomenon. While parcels of air are descending in part of the stratosphere, parcels are rising in other parts of the stratosphere.

        https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281994%29122%3C1115%3ASOTFSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2

        (“Trajectories…” in the second paragraph of the Abstract.)

        We do not normally get “weather” in the stratosphere. On the occasions when quasi-standing, atmospheric, planetary waves of Harmonic 1 – and, more rarely, of Harmonic 2 – become FOCUSED towards the winter pole* – we do.

        Nobody knows if the particular “outbreaks” are “solar driven.” The general phenomenon occurs because of the lack of UV heating in the winter; that much is certain. It all has very little to do with the troposphere or with heat from global warming effects.

        Study of the phenomenon has – unfortunately – had to be carried out with computer simulations which lead to little or no real understanding. But it is just weather, not climate.

        * i.e. in the Arctic now, in the Antarctica in six months.

      • dave permalink
        February 27, 2018 2:20 pm

        “…very little to do with the troposphere…”

        I should have allowed for the theoretical possibility that the troposphere has a role in focusing the standing waves above it.

  9. February 26, 2018 11:05 pm

    It’s just GM and his paymasters trying to divert attention away from the freezing cold and snow sweeping large parts of Europe including Britain.

  10. The Old Bloke permalink
    February 26, 2018 11:09 pm

    Roger, everything is correct in what Shukman said apart from one thing. Siberia is having record cold temps because of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event. The cold above the Arctic was displaced for a short time. The air flow above the Arctic has returned to it’s normal wet to east direction. This SSW event happens on a fairly regular basis and shows itself in the spikes of sudden warm temperatures as recorded. Bloody cold up there right now though.

  11. Ben Vorlich permalink
    February 26, 2018 11:12 pm

    There’s been persistent low pressure over the Arctic Ocean for most of the last two years. North Pole/Arctic watcher Caleb at Sunrise’s Swansong does regular reports on it.

    Latest update here

    https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2018/02/24/arctic-sea-ice-the-busted-blockbuster/

  12. AndyG55 permalink
    February 26, 2018 11:23 pm

    Interestingly, That 1976 spike is also from when there was a wonky jet stream.

    • tom0mason permalink
      February 27, 2018 4:25 pm

      And the man from the UK Met-Office he says it ain’t anything to do with global warming…

  13. jim permalink
    February 27, 2018 2:42 am

    I might be wrong about this, but sort of remember reading that the remnant heat from El Nino ends up escaping into space from the atmosphere above the Arctic. As this was due to end about now, does this at least in part explain some of the air movements?

    • dave permalink
      February 27, 2018 12:38 pm

      “…remnant heat from El Nino ends up escaping [sic]…”

      That way of thinking leads into the error of imagining that heat can be trapped for a long time (years) in the atmosphere, while in fact the residence time of energy in the atmosphere is only a few days.

      The warm(er) air which was transported to the Arctic recently will be observed to fall about 3 degrees C every day, this week, as it radiates an uncompensated amount to space from its top:

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      We have had one day, already.

      Of course, if the air were really warm (+ 15 C instead of -15 C) it would be by 5 C a day (4th power of absolute temperature approximation.)

      • jim permalink
        February 27, 2018 12:51 pm

        Thanks Dave for that explanation. I think ( I don’t ‘know’) that the theory was that the remnant El Nino heat in the oceans was transported to the arctic and the method of heat escape to space you described took place quickly.
        But now I read here the compression of air being the reason for the temporary hgigher arctic temperatures so I really do not know as it seems not possible for it to be both at the same time.

      • dave permalink
        February 27, 2018 9:16 pm

        Down and down we go, in a spin:

        http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

  14. February 27, 2018 4:46 am

    Ben Vorlich’s above comment brought some visitors to my site, so I came to see what was going on here.

    I think this is a wonderfully concise and elegant post. I love the way history never fails to knock the knees out from under Alarmist sensationalism. The problem is that I don’t always have the time to do the digging. Therefore I greatly appreciate the work Mr. Homewood did, discovering the history from March, 1976.

    But I’ll confess it makes me just a little nervous. You see, March 1976 was end of a winter that was not all that bad, in Maine, up in the northeast of the USA. However the winter of 1975-1976 was followed by a winter that was so cold, in the USA’s east, that it was one reason the big deal back then was not Global Warming, but the return of an Ice Age. I still possess a “Time Magazine” from January, 1977, where the cover story was “The Deep Freeze”.

    I actually enjoyed the hardship of the winter of 1976-1977. Casco Bay in Maine was frozen to a degree where I could walk on sea-ice a mile from shore, in sub-zero (F) temperatures, and walked with my younger brother under the light of a full moon from South Freeport to Harpswell. I’m not so hot-blooded any more.

    One thing I recall about the milder winter of 1975-1976 is that I was jealous of Minnesota. Why? Because then, (unlike now), I liked winter and they got clobbered with a hard winter as Maine got off easy. Guess what? This winter they are having a far harder winter than we in the east are. Hmm.

    Memo to self: Next winter could really clobber the eastern USA.

  15. manicbeancounter permalink
    February 27, 2018 5:50 am

    1976 is an interesting year for average temperatures. In Britain, there was the hottest summer ever, but globally the average temperature was unusually cold. Below is a graph that NASA GISS produced in early 2011 of four global averages. (The one where they left out the HADCRUT3 data point for 2010 when it did not show the year as a record.)

    • mikewaite permalink
      February 27, 2018 11:45 am

      When I see that oft-quoted chart, my initial response is, as many would hope it to be , OMG we are truly doomed .
      Then I look at the actual figures : an increase of under 0.6K in 60 years of virtually unrestricted emission of CO2. That is 0.6K on a base of 288K , ie 0.2%.
      Earth is a ball of dirt, rock and water whirling through not- empty space , bombarded daily by detritus from the origins of the solar system and totally dependent on the vagaries of the solar furnace and the predictable , but complex, influence of the gas giants.
      The amazing fact is that the global temperature can remain so stable, to a degree that industrial process designers would envy.
      Why don’t “they” model why it is so stable?

      • dave permalink
        February 27, 2018 3:33 pm

        “…why it is so stable?”

        I think it is because – in an already quite well balanced system – the outgoing thermal radiation from this planet varies, approximately, as the 4th power* of the absolute temperature at the surface of radiating matter.

        In fact, I am rather sure of it! The model is trite.

        *so that, (+/-) 3 Degrees C translates into (+/-) 4 % change in (cooling/heating) Power.

  16. NeilC permalink
    February 27, 2018 6:25 am

    Dear George, why don’t you try a scientific experiment. Try melting ice at -5 Deg C, What’s your answer? Repeat again, what’s your answer? Repeat again and again and again.

    Oh, did you notice ice doesn’t melt at -5 Deg C. Therefore your stupid, completely ignorant non-scientific comments about meltdown in the Arctic is similar to the same bollocks you always write.

    Kind regards (not)

    • February 27, 2018 7:20 am

      You have to feel sorry for the Moonbat with all his delusions. I guess he missed out on his physics classes.

  17. February 27, 2018 8:00 am

    Reported on Bristol Post site yesterday, but it didn’t happen.

    “Live: Weather updates as BBC forecasts 98% chance of snow in next hour
    So-called Beast in the East could be set to reach Bristol
    ByLuke Beardsworth
    Alex Wood
    Updated18:07, 26 FEB 2018

    • Gerry, England permalink
      February 27, 2018 2:00 pm

      Evening Standard front page was leave London by 6pm or be eaten by polar bears, or something like that. Southern were expecting snow to settle on the rails late afternoon. And…nothing.

  18. dave permalink
    February 27, 2018 9:49 am

    “…98% chance…”

    That must be the slightly bigger brother of “the 97%” of scientists who believe in CAGW.

  19. Phoenix44 permalink
    February 27, 2018 10:09 am

    The record high in London in February is 19 degrees. Today and tomorrow it will be around zero. So we are nearly twenty degrees colder than the record – surely an off the scale even as well?

    Comparing highs and lows to averages without taking into account the distribution is either lying or ignorance. Does Monbiot really not understand what an average is?

  20. Svend Ferdinandsen permalink
    February 27, 2018 3:32 pm

    All climatologists seems to suffer from selective tunnel vision. They find any tiny spot on the earth with deviating weather and make a big story out of that. I thought that climatologists had a wider horizon.
    Rasmus Tonboe from DMI have said that: Den fortsatte opvarmning af Arktis får store konsekvenser for resten af kloden. For når temperaturen stiger i Arktis, stiger den også andre steder – bare værre. En slags klima karma kan man kalde det.

    Now it seems that warming in arctis will be even worse on the globe. Normally we are told the opposite.

  21. CheshireRed permalink
    February 27, 2018 4:33 pm

    The Guardian have now gone front-page mental on this story. Suddenly weather has become climate and guess what? It’s ‘unprecedented’. Shame Greensand’s post above shows a tweet that 100% disproves the Guardians claims it’s ‘unprecedented’.

    • CheshireRed permalink
      February 27, 2018 4:37 pm

      Oh, and reading BTL is an astonishing thing. Those comments are deluded gibberish bat-shit mental. No wonder I got banned again.

  22. Rah permalink
    February 27, 2018 7:17 pm

    Let’s see! The temp is about 265 k or -8 C and there is virtually no insolation this time of year and that constitutes a “melt down” ? Now there’s a modern climate expert for you.

  23. Svend Ferdinandsen permalink
    February 27, 2018 8:52 pm

    Oh no. It is getting cold again.
    http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.php

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