Flooding really was worse in the old days!
By Paul Homewood
From The Times:
Monty Python’s four Yorkshiremen, who bragged of spending their childhoods in septic tanks or at the bottom of a lake, would be delighted to discover that floods really were worse when they were lads.
Since the 1950s the number of lives and the amount of money lost to floods have declined, despite little change to the frequency of catastrophic floods, according to the first comprehensive study of European historical records.
Academics at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands found that the number of flood deaths across Europe has been falling by about 5 per cent a year for the past six decades. Financial losses to flooding have declined by 2 per cent a year, according to their paper in Nature Communications.
Global warming means that there is less risk of sudden thaw, which means flooding is less likely Keystone-France/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images
Dominik Paprotny, who led the study, said that this was probably because people had migrated out of the countryside into cities, which tended to be better protected, while houses now tended to be more soundly built and flood defences were stronger. The internal combustion engine and the invention of the helicopter have also made evacuating people a much easier prospect than in the Victorian era.
Working from more than 300 sources including old books and newspaper clippings, the team created a list of 1,564 “damaging” floods that occurred between 1870 and 2016. They then made a map of how riches and the population had been distributed across 37 European nations over the same period. The model was detailed enough to be broken up into 100m squares.
The number of bad floods per year did increase from about three in the late 19th century to more than 20 in the early 21st. However, records are heavily skewed as most of the middling-sized floods that happened before 1950 have simply passed out of memory.
When the academics tweaked the data to take this into account, they found that the upward trend vanished: if anything, the frequency of “extreme hydrological events” went down during the 20th century, despite global warming. Mr Paprotny said that climate change had reduced some flood risk factors, such as sudden thaws, but had made others worse.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flooding-really-was-worse-in-the-old-days-7ls88dzx2
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NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT 
“Global warming means that there is less risk of sudden thaw”
Run that past me again?
Less snow in the first place
Oh please…
I note that many parts of mid- and southern Britain have suffered some tremendous “sudden thaws”, along with associated lightning and flash floods, in recent days. Obviously, these extreme weather events must have been caused by global warming. So, err, flooding will increase, err..
Now I’m just confused…
Ah just reading it now Paul, but you got there before me.
BTW just read your old story about London Array wind turbine blades already failing.. And I see you made a small numerical error and later put a correct note.
You’ll never get a job at the BBC where the norm is to stealth edit such MATERIAL changes.
Times commenters are mostly sensible, but quite a few greenbobbers have shown up , spitting bile.
This is despite the insanity of all those houses that have been built on flood plains and that stupid people continue to buy.
If developers who build on flood plains were forced to call these estates “The Water Meadows” it might give a clue as to where the problems might lie.
Perhaps the buyers/occupiers aren’t stupid but desperate for somewhere to live.
When I arrived on June 13, 2015 for the 800th Anniversary of Magna Carta, I kept hearing Runnymede referred to as a “water meadow.” I wondered what in the heck is a water meadow? Finally someone told me it meant what I know as a “flood plain,” as you noted.
And because of the disability discrimination act all houses have to be suitable for wheelchair access which means no doorsteps and certainly not building houses up above an assumed flooding level so that you have steps.
Jaime Jessop nails it:
“Flash floods are caused by #climatechange? Not according to this list of short duration rainfall records at the @metoffice. All but two occurred before the 1970s.”
https://twitter.com/Balinteractive/status/1001567426708934656
I’ve just been listening to a US panel discussion featuring Michael E Mann. Among other things, it appears that Sandy caused so much damage, not because of chronic under investment in maintenence, but due to the extra foot of storm surge due to climate change, which caused 25 Sq miles of extra flooding. The guy is SO convincing. Naturally there were no sceptics within a mile of the evening event.
Unfortunately, while the headline says: “Flooding really was worse in the old days!”, from what I can see of the article, it actually says that the effects of flooding (i.e, deaths and financial cost) have declined, which is not the same thing.
I can’t tell from the article whether the frequency and size of floods has declined.
“Since the 1950s the number of lives and the amount of money lost to floods have declined, despite little change to the frequency of catastrophic floods, according to the first comprehensive study of European historical records.”
It says:
despite little change to the frequency of catastrophic floods
which is probably a better headline!
I’m surprised the damage from flooding has decreased. We have a new housing development near us that is built on a flood plain but they got planning permission, so if that’s the trend the future may not bode well.
Further to my comment above, about Michael E Mann’s panic about rising sea levels caused by Climate Change, I just happened to catch an advert on Al Jazeera for Babcock Ranch, Punta Gorda, Florida:
https://www.babcockranch.com/
“Babcock Ranch is an approximately 17,000-acre planned community under development in Southwest Florida that was approved as part of a public-private partnership strategy with the State of Florida and local governments. The deal established the neighboring Babcock Ranch Preserve.”
A quick look on Google Earth confirms this project is at sea level. Michael Mann obviously wasn’t consulted. You couldn’t make it up!
Even the gumby gets it …
Monty Python: a tax for standing in water
Hmm, all that (50’s cooling global warming) melted snow went back into the sea and now it’s dropping again on Britain from those darned thunder clouds, almost as, duh, like de water is vindictive! (naughty water, rain comning back and recycling on us and all the dang time, eh?)
Aye, maybe yet, do the Gods mock us, I think they are widdling and piddling themselves.
Men (well some men 97% of 40 or so IPCC climastrologists) call it ‘man made warming’ and listening to that hollow, screeching echo, the Gods laugh even louder, longer and very much harder!
Personally speaking, living in England as you (have to) do, I’ve always liked the wet. There’s nothing quite like a gentle summer’s pitter patter of raindrops, the sound on the leaves, in the puddles on the roof, it is for me, something satisfyingly refreshing, what glory it is, celebrate it! Thank the heavens for it, it makes for green pasture and pleasantness. Rainy? it’s also a good time for a round of golf, the courses are that much less busy.
On Sunday, Ellicot City, MD west of Baltimore had another devastating flood following 8″ of rain in a few hours. They had one in 2016 with a major rain event which also came across WV and wiped out whole towns. Such events are known for the southern Appalachians, but not limited to it. Of course the pundits are blaming these rain events on climate change.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/05/29/ellicott-city-flood-devastation-stunning-videos-photos/650489002/
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.