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Climate change fuelling heatwaves, “experts” warn

July 26, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

An extremely dishonest story propagated by the Press Association, based largely on statements from Peter Stott, which contain inaccuracies, significant omissions and prejudices dressed up as fact:

 

 

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Rising global temperatures caused by human activity are making the heatwaves gripping the northern hemisphere more likely, scientists warn.

 

Extreme heat has been seen in the northern hemisphere, with temperatures exceeding 30C (86F) in the Arctic circle, a deadly heatwave in Japan being declared a “natural disaster” and heatwaves in parts of North America and Siberia.

 

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Professor Peter Stott, Met Office science fellow in attribution, likened the increased chances of a heatwave to rolling a dice and getting a six – but that climate change was weighting the dice.

“What we’ve seen this summer is repeated throws throwing up a six in different parts of the world.

“If you get a six over and over again you start to think ‘This is not normal, somebody has given me a loaded dice’.”

 

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He said the chances of the 2003 heatwave in Europe happening was more than doubled by climate change, and predictions by climate models that heatwaves would increase in frequency “are coming true before our eyes”.

He said the “jury is out” on the extent to which climate change is affecting the jet stream, whose current pattern is keeping an area of high pressure to the west of Britain and causing the hot, dry weather.

But he said: “It’s settled into a pattern here this summer, and what that means when it’s in this pattern, the Arctic temperatures are very much warmer, and temperatures are globally very much warmer, it’s fuelling these heatwaves.”

Temperatures have risen globally around 1C above pre-industrial levels, as a result of greenhouse gases put into the atmosphere from activities such as burning fossil fuels, while increases in the Arctic have been much greater.

Figures from Nasa show last month was tied as the third warmest June in 138 years of modern record-keeping at 0.77C above the 1951-1980 average, with only June 2015 and 2016 warmer.

Professor Len Shaffrey, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, said: “Global temperatures are increasing due to climate change.

“The global rise in temperatures means the probability that an extreme heatwave will occur is also increasing.”

Recent studies showed climate change had made extremes such the European “Lucifer” heatwave, which hit south-east France, Italy and Croatia last summer, at least four times more likely, he said.

He added: “The current hot and dry spell in the UK is partly due to a combination of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures, climate change and the weather.

“Should weather patterns continue as they are then we might expect this summer will turn out to be as hot and dry as the extreme summer of 1976.”

Dr Jeffrey Kargel, senior associate research scientist and glaciologist at the University of Arizona, said the upsurge in months-long extreme weather showed the climate is less stable than it was 30 years ago.

“This profound instability seems to be the harshest effect of global climate change,” he said, warning of the costs of extreme weather, from wildfires to agricultural losses during droughts.

http://www.oxfordtimes.co.uk/news/national/16374010.Climate_change_fuelling_heatwaves__experts_warn/

His main argument is that recent heatwaves in the NH are somehow unusual, record breaking and caused by global warming.

He mentions an “Arctic heatwave” with temperatures up to 86F. However emotive this may sound, there is no evidence that such temperatures are unusual. The official all-time record for Alaska was 100F set in 1915. The same temperature was recorded in 1937 in the Yukon.

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https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

Across the Arctic as a whole, temperatures have been below normal all summer:

https://i0.wp.com/ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

And we have already seen that recent heatwaves in the US have actually been pretty routine events, only made to sound scary by using UHI affected sites.

The official Climate Science Special Report, published by the US Global Change Research Program last year, confirmed that heatwaves in the US were many times worse in the 1920s to 40s, and that recent weather has been relatively mild.

image_thumb12

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2017/11/05/a-deceptive-new-report-on-climate/

 

Stott argues that increasing global temperatures are making heatwaves worse, but satellites show that atmospheric temperatures have not increased for twenty years:

https://i0.wp.com/www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_June_2018_v6.jpg

http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/

If some regions are hotter than normal, others must be colder.

In short, Stott has provided no evidence that recent heatwaves in certain areas are nothing other than random weather events, which happen in various parts of the world most years.

Britain

Naturally, of course, Stott focuses on the current UK heatwave, noting that it is similar to 1976.

While we await the eventual outcome, what is absolutely clear so far is that daily temperatures were far higher in 1976. This is really a serious omission from a supposedly impartial scientist.

So far this summer, the highest CET daily max temperature has been 28.6C, with just three days over 28C.

In contrast, in 1976 temperatures reached 33.2C, the all-time record, and there were 18 days over 28C in June and July alone.

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

 

While it was consistently hot in June this year, the month only ranked 18th warmest on CET, with the warmest June as long ago as 1846.

There is little evidence therefore of anything unprecedented about the weather we have had so far this summer.

Causality

 

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Stott starts by saying that there are striking similarities in meteorological patterns with 1976, in particular Atlantic ocean temperatures.

What he conveniently omits to mention is that those ocean temperatures just happen to be much colder than normal. This hardly supports his contention that global warming has contributed to our heatwave!

2018072400_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@sd_000

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?id=daily&img=2018072400_054_G6_global_I_SEASON_tm@lg@sd_000&bc=sea

Meteorologist Simon Lee explains the connection:

The heatwave is being caused by a persistent area of high pressure over Europe and Scandinavia, which has deflected active weather systems northward, thus giving us dry and warm weather. It’s possible that this is being driven by a region of record-cold sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic which has changed the path of the jet stream. This pattern has become ‘locked’ and amplified over time, thus giving our record-setting conditions.

Other scientists have already come to the same conclusion. A recent paper by Duchez et al found that every severe heatwave in Europe since 1980 coincided with extremely cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures:

We have also examined whether the cold ocean temperatures may have contributed to the development of the 2015 heat wave. In this case we have not been able to establish causality, as that would require a complex model analysis that considers the various possible factors advanced previously as potential drivers (including soil moisture, precipitation and Tropical Atlantic atmospheric warming) in addition to the cold ocean precursor. Nevertheless, our results have established that similar cold Atlantic anomalies were present prior to the onset of the most extreme European heat waves back to 1980 indicating that it is a common factor in their development. Furthermore, in the case of 2015, we suggest that the ocean anomaly, and the resulting strong meridional SST gradient could have initiated a propagating Rossby wave train causing a stationary Jet Stream position that favoured the development of high pressure and temperature extremes over Central Europe during the heat wave.

  Duchez_et_al_ERL_Review

Stott claims that “the jury is out”, as to whether climate change is responsible for this summer’s jet stream:

He said the “jury is out” on the extent to which climate change is affecting the jet stream, whose current pattern is keeping an area of high pressure to the west of Britain and causing the hot, dry weather.

But he said: “It’s settled into a pattern here this summer, and what that means when it’s in this pattern, the Arctic temperatures are very much warmer, and temperatures are globally very much warmer, it’s fuelling these heatwaves.

What he means is that there is no evidence at all that climate change is responsible, but he thought he ought to imply that it is anyway.

And, as we have already seen, the Arctic is not “very much warmer”, but has in fact been colder than average throughout this summer.

As for “climate change affecting the jet stream”, if it was true we would have seen an effect on summer rainfall patterns in recent years. But according to Met Office figures, there is no such effect.

In any reputable field of science, that alone would be enough to consign Stott’s theory into the waste bin.

England Rainfall - Summer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

Are heatwaves getting worse?

According to Stott:

The chances of the 2003 heatwave in Europe happening was more than doubled by climate change, and predictions by climate models that heatwaves would increase in frequency “are coming true before our eyes.

 

In fact, there has been no repetition of the 2003 European heatwave since then, nor anything remotely approaching its intensity.

As for nearer home, summers since 2006 have seen precious little in the way of heatwaves.

England Mean daily maximum temp - Summer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

 

 

Propaganda

There has been a determined push in recent weeks to persuade the public that hot weather is the result of global warming, and that the world is close to burning up.

We have had fake news from the Washington Post and BBC about “record” temperatures. Now we have climate scientists such as Stott jumping on the bandwagon, desperate to keep the scare alive and their grants flowing.

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9 Comments
  1. July 26, 2018 10:13 am

    Harrabin keeps the propaganda going at the BBC:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44956310

  2. AndyG55 permalink
    July 26, 2018 10:25 am

    Climate reanalyser shows COLDER than the coldest period since 1900 over central USA,/Canada, over Siberia, over central Africa, and over Greenland.

    Oceans show nothing much at all.

    I guess that is global worming , as well

  3. John Palmer permalink
    July 26, 2018 10:32 am

    I think that it’s spelt with two L’s and one X!

  4. MrGrimNasty permalink
    July 26, 2018 12:18 pm

    I suspect the determined campaign to create the global heatwave narrative has been to flood out the fact that the earth has recently cooled.

    After all, as the el nino induced warming soared, ‘they’ screamed it out loud, declared it was the resurgence of global warming after the pause (which they said didn’t exist).

    I await the July UAH data with interest.

    Incidentally, MO already has July 2018 CET 0.7C warmer than 1976, narrowly 3rd warmest ever. I suspect with 2 very hot days, cooler weather, and the end of month jiggery, it won’t change much from that.

  5. Sheri permalink
    July 26, 2018 12:55 pm

    Perhaps it’s because people realize if climate change/global WARMING is responsible for heat waves, and all weather phenomena, then it does indeed make winters colder and they do not want that. Or they have figured out that it’s only climate change when the press wants it to be and weather the rest of the time. One supposes it’s true that crying “wolf” over and over again with no wolf appearing is ruining the narrative. Now they are down to calling a domestic dog a “wolf” in hopes of scaring people. Come one, it’s called SUMMER.

    • Sheri permalink
      July 26, 2018 12:55 pm

      Oh, a great gathering of very useful data showing the real trends. Thanks, Paul.

  6. Mr Grimnasty permalink
    July 26, 2018 3:52 pm

    “EXPERT” Met Office Summer forecast on 11th June:

    “However, our outlook certainly doesn’t imply a 3-month heatwave.”

    https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2018/06/11/will-summer-be-a-washout-or-a-scorcher-2/

  7. July 28, 2018 8:35 am

    James Delingpole gives this article good coverage in his usual amusing way:
    https://www.breitbart.com/london/2018/07/28/this-warm-summer-is-not-what-climate-change-looks-like/

Trackbacks

  1. Delingpole: Don't Let The Climate Nutcases Ruin Your Lovely Summer! - Survivalist 101

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