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Met Office “Record Temperature” Predictions Fall Flat

July 27, 2018

By Paul Homewood


We have been inundated this week with Met Office predictions that we could see an all-time UK record, and that temperatures would certainly get to at least 37C.




In reality, it has all rather turned into a damp squib for the Met Office, who were so desperate to trumpet a new record.

Amongst all of the hundreds of stations they monitor, the highest they have managed to find is 34.7C at an obscure glider airfield at Tibenham:




It’s unlikely, judging by their tweets, that anywhere else got even remotely close to this.


Interestingly the Met Office has also discovered that Faversham set the top temperature yesterday:





As you may recall, the late Philip Eden strongly believed that temperature measurements at Faversham were not reliable and should be discounted:


  1. Chris, Leeds permalink
    July 27, 2018 5:34 pm

    Yes Stephen Burt and Philip Eden wrote an article about this in Weather magazine in 2004. They believed the temperature of 38.5C recorded at Faversham on 10th August was about 2C too high, perhaps because the site was sheltered by a tall hedge. They found the reading to be anomalous – three official climatological stations lay within 30km and the maximum temperatures on that date were 34.7, 36.5 and 37.4C. Comparing records at Faversham with records at these other stations in previous heatwaves suggests the true value should be about 36C – this also ties in with unofficial records closer to Faversham on the date in question. The same article also questioned the Gravesend Broadness value and even indicated there were some doubts about all the high values recorded on that day…

    • Nigel Sherratt permalink
      July 27, 2018 8:05 pm

      It was damned hot that day, newly applied lime plaster at St Peter’s, Oare (Grade 1) cracked causing no end of uphill from the churchwarden. All the calculations I’d done that day were rubbish too and had to be redone, a sure sign of CAGW. Pretty hot yesterday too.

    • Up2snuff permalink
      July 28, 2018 8:46 am

      Chris, if it was “sheltered by a tall hedge” is that record reading more likely to have been 2 degrees TOO LOW?

  2. Adrian permalink
    July 27, 2018 5:38 pm

    Paul, sorry you’re wrong, again!

    As the tax funded BBC has already ‘explained’ the tax funded Met Office, both great bastions of impartiality, we’re in fact right. They simply appear wrong because of thunderstorms.

    So stick that in your pipe Paul.

  3. July 27, 2018 5:48 pm

    Much ado about nothing. A bit like the ice free Arctic of climate mythology.

  4. MrGrimNasty permalink
    July 27, 2018 5:49 pm

    Yes, they popped in Brogdale (Faversham) after I went on about the Wisley/Heathrow thing (just kidding).

    Brogdale has a second ‘educational’ weather station near the MO one apparently, part of a commercial venture, and they like to boast about it supplying some record breaking temperatures on their website. There must be a little bit of a temptation……… I’m sure not.

  5. Dave Ward permalink
    July 27, 2018 6:17 pm

    I live not a million miles from that “Obscure glider airfield at Tibenham”, and I noticed my weather centre showing 34.6C this afternoon. The sensor obviously isn’t calibrated, but is mounted in a ventilated box in a shaded part of the garden. I also heard Norwich airport’s ATIS giving 34C at around the same time. Their equipment is on grass some distance from the runway, and despite their aspirations to be an “International” airport they don’t have more than a dozen jets operating a day…

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      July 27, 2018 6:30 pm

      No reason to disbelieve it, today that area was at the convergence of the very hot continental air coming up from southish and the clearing hot air from the rest of the UK coming from a more westerly direction.

    • Athelstan permalink
      July 27, 2018 7:13 pm

      I think C34.6º cannot be doubted, it is warm, hot for Britain but it is not a record, Norfolk does get rather hot at times – as you will well know.

  6. Joe Public permalink
    July 27, 2018 6:20 pm

    Met Office Summer Temperatures …… sponsored by the Air Conditioning Trade Association

  7. Stonyground permalink
    July 27, 2018 6:27 pm

    The front pages of the Dead Tree Press are now trumpeting that baking hot summer’s so hot that they kill people “could” be regular occurrences in the coming decades. Presumably we will finally be getting the Mediterranean climate that we were promised thirty years ago. Alternately we “could” see a return to the kind of indifferent slightly damp summer’s that Brits have come to know and love since the effing Norman Conquest.

    • Stonyground permalink
      July 27, 2018 6:31 pm

      I would like to point out that the misplaced apostrophe in that post was placed there by auto correct.

  8. July 27, 2018 6:29 pm

    Even if a new record is not set, there has been so much publicity that most people will probably think one has.

    • Ben Vorlich permalink
      July 28, 2018 7:05 am

      I have thought that the MO exaggerates all weather extremes and has done so since Michael Fish’s hurricane. It does have the benefit for them that predictions of more extreme weather do get confirmed by overhyped normal events and remain in folk memory.

  9. Athelstan permalink
    July 27, 2018 7:15 pm

    Twist ye knickers not, Faversham, Gravesend, Heathrow, Gatwick UHI effect.

    Still, we know it has been warm, what’s the problem?

  10. July 27, 2018 7:29 pm

    The BBC were in full hyperbole mode calling it Furnace Friday for Heaven’s sake.

  11. John F. Hultquist permalink
    July 27, 2018 7:44 pm

    All is right with the Earth. Summer arrived as expected, again.

  12. saparonia permalink
    July 28, 2018 7:05 am

    These comedians, fear-mongers are grabbing at straws, they know the truth is out.

    • dave permalink
      July 28, 2018 8:18 am

      The surface mass balance on the Greenland Ice Sheet actually increased yesterday. It is unprecedented to increase so early in what should still be high summer, according to Danish records.

      Of course, it is all that Global Warming – wot makes snow fall, or melt, or something.

      • saparonia permalink
        July 28, 2018 8:57 am

        Melt at the polar regions will fall as snow and rain thus expanding the area of cold. It’s one of the mechanisms of a cooling phase. We are entering a severe cooling phase as we also have an increase in volcanism and a sudden drop into solar minimum, and it won’t be long before the shit hits the fan for global warming advocates.

  13. Up2snuff permalink
    July 28, 2018 8:39 am

    Was close to Faversham yesterday and, for the UK, it was really hot. I can believe that Met Office figure.

    All sorted out by a good old-fashioned thunderstorm and back down to ‘normal’ numbers.

  14. Phil permalink
    July 28, 2018 8:47 am

    Reuters too were keen to get in on the act, judging by their headline: “Britain’s ‘furnace Friday’ tests temperature records”.

    Is ” tests ” Newspeak for “fails to break”? And ” furnace Friday ” – really? It was a warm day in an unusually pleasant summer.

  15. saparonia permalink
    July 28, 2018 9:06 am

    MET office are losing it. This is imaginary weather for 9am today – 28/7/18 and a live satellite image with current storms at 09.15 today – 28/7/18

  16. July 30, 2018 4:50 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

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