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Back To Reality

September 2, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Amidst all of the hottest evah claims, a dose of reality from UAH:

 

https://i1.wp.com/www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2018_v6.jpg

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_August_2018_v6.jpg

 

Global temperature anomalies fell back to 0.19C in August. This means the YTD average is 0.23C, putting them back to roughly where they were in 2002.

 

Arctic sea ice is tracking close to 2014, which finished with one of the highest minimums in the last decade. Current extent is well above the last three years.

 

osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_en

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

 

 

Greenland’s Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance grew at close to record levels for the second year running:

 

http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

 

While at the bottom of the world, sea ice around Antarctica is perfectly normal:

 

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

And, according to Climate Reanalyzer, the world’s temperatures are only 0.1C above the 1979-2000 mean, with large chunks of the world colder than normal:

 

image

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

 

Somehow, I don’t see armageddon!

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42 Comments
  1. 1saveenergy permalink
    September 2, 2018 11:19 am

    “Somehow, I don’t see armageddon!”

    Paul, you’re not looking hard enough,… that nice mr Gore will help you….just close your eyes & believe & STOP LOOKING AT FACTS. (:-))

  2. September 2, 2018 12:41 pm

    Let’s see. Sailboats getting stuck in the Arctic while trying to sail though the ice free waters caused by global warming. Probably those of that ilk with more southerly views are planning their summer voyages to the Antarctic to view the devastation from global warming. Thus, they will get larger vessels stuck in the surely non-existent ice and cry out pitifully for rescue.

    Typical year. Nothing to see here.

    • September 3, 2018 4:43 am

      It has not been an easy year in the Northwest passage. At least one boat turned back on the Pacific side, at least eight on the Atlantic side, one yacht crushed and sunk with two men rescued after standing eleven hours on the ice, and ninety teachers and students helicoptered off a big ship that struck a rock when moving south of the ice.

      The whole theory of the “Death Spiral” is based on ever-decreasing ice. Open water is suppose to lead to warmer water which leads to less ice. For the ice to increase in any way, or merely to stay the same, refutes the theory.

      It is not a spiral. It is a cycle. Both recent and not-so-recent history leads to the same conclusion.

      https://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2018/09/01/arctic-sea-ice-long-hauls-and-shipwrecks/

  3. Bitter@twisted permalink
    September 2, 2018 12:58 pm

    Paul you are clearly not reading “The Graunard”, or listening to the BBC, or you would know better.

  4. September 2, 2018 1:21 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections and commented:
    500 GT of water is a quantity I don’t relate to.

    500 GT is about 368 million acre-feet.

    So, in relative terms, 500 GT of H20 is about:
    1 Lake Erie or 3 Lake Tahoes.

  5. September 2, 2018 1:37 pm

    Reality is just a series of aberrations to be exploited if convenient, otherwise it’s the climate models that matter in alarm-land.

  6. GEORGE LET permalink
    September 2, 2018 1:39 pm

    Poor Alarmists!
    They have to do more and more acrobatics to make their case. Meanwhile in places like Australia and Canada people are saying enough of raising energy bills for the bogus wind and solar which can’t produce power worth the cost that goes into them.

  7. Broadlands permalink
    September 2, 2018 1:55 pm

    According to NOAA (a reliable source?) The global mean temperature with respect to 2017 has declined consecutively for every month in 2018 through July. The seven month average, minus 0.14°C.

    • 1saveenergy permalink
      September 2, 2018 2:25 pm

      Link please

    • AndyG55 permalink
      September 4, 2018 12:17 pm

      Hey ??? I didn’t think NOAA were ALLOWED to show any cooling ! 😉

  8. September 2, 2018 2:47 pm

    According to UAH, the northern hemisphere temperature anomaly is the lowest it has been since before 2017. I can’t wait for Harrabin to report this.

  9. Michael Davison permalink
    September 2, 2018 4:14 pm

    Never have so many been conned by so few for so much. It is very hard to see why some people can not see what is really going on. It has nothing to do with climate. The great socialist train has been heading at us for decades but with luck may be finally running out of puff.

    • John Cullen permalink
      September 3, 2018 12:33 pm

      Michael,

      While ‘greens’ and ‘reds’ have gained a lot from the frantic climate change agenda, those of other political colours (notably ‘blues’ and ‘blacks’) have done well too, especially through rent-seeking. As Dieter Helm says [Ref. 1, page xiii], “Unfortunately there is a climate change ‘pork barrel’ and there are lots of snouts competing for a share of the spoils. The scale of their lobbying is awesome.”

      Thus people of all political persuasions have been able to take something positive from the climate change agenda. Unfortunately, it has all had to be paid for by energy consumers – and nobody has been looking after their needs for cheap, reliable energy!

      Reference:-
      1. Dieter Helm, “The Carbon Crunch”, Yale, revised and updated paperback edition, 2015.

      Regards,
      John Cullen.

  10. September 2, 2018 4:59 pm

    I am posting this again because the first posting seems to have got lost.

    “And, according to Climate Reanalyzer, the world’s temperatures are only 0.1C above the 1979-2000 mean, with large chunks of the world colder than normal:”
    I think that is a very good point to make.
    Most “warmists” concentrate entirely on the above normal areas, while ignoring the below ones. They can only see the above normal areas.
    When point this out, I usually get a response along the lines of “why would we mention the cool areas, its the warm areas which are important.”
    But the warm and cool areas, more or less balance each other out, with most of the globe within normal limits. The above normal areas are above normal BECAUSE some others are below normal. The globe is never a uniform temperature.
    The important fact is the difference which in the case of UAH is 0.19c, which on a global scale is miniscule.
    To the extent that other temperature data sets give a higher figure, is in part due to the incomplete nature of the data.
    The fact that “warmists” can’t see this, demonstrates their bias, and makes them what they are.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 3, 2018 9:25 am

      The global charts always interest me as the areas that are “average” are usually very few. It seems that above or below is actually the norm!

  11. Gamecock permalink
    September 2, 2018 6:41 pm

    ‘Arctic sea ice is tracking close to 2014, which finished with one of the highest minimums in the last decade. Current extent is well above the last three years.’

    Esoterica. Arctic sea ice goes up; Arctic sea ice goes down. It affects virtually NO ONE what the ice does. No one would even know if it weren’t for government agencies telling us. It means NOTHING.

    • dave permalink
      September 2, 2018 7:13 pm

      “No one would even know…”

      That is the whole point. At first, the fanatics confidently averred that we were going to see the effects of Global Warming, right under our noses. *Our children won’t know what snow is!” – that sort of nonsense. Now, the “proofs” have to be posited to be in remote places and
      involve subtle measurements; it is then impossible for the sheeple to carp. Unless they exercise a little masculine common sense and say “You have failed once. You are mere witch-doctors!”

    • Gerry, England permalink
      September 3, 2018 1:44 pm

      Arctic Ice cycles on a 60-70 year period. The satellite record is still well short of this and subject to some sensor calibration issues. There is great fanfair about a new satellite to record more in depth data but the record for that only starts when it begins operation, so call back in 60-70 years to see a comparison.

  12. 4TimesAYear permalink
    September 2, 2018 8:28 pm

    Reblogged this on 4TimesAYear's Blog.

  13. 4TimesAYear permalink
    September 2, 2018 8:33 pm

    Alarmists are like “the sky is falling” even while it is admitted that
    “You can go from no ice one summer to completely landlocked ice where the ice goes from coast to coast in another summer. It’s hard to predict; the Arctic has always been an incredibly variable place.” – Stephanie Pfirman, Barnard College, Columbia University

    • GEORGE LET permalink
      September 3, 2018 3:24 am

      Stephanie, an objective voice from a university- it’s not something we hear very much.

      • 4TimesAYear permalink
        September 6, 2018 11:03 am

        I’m not sure where she stands on climate change; it could have been a slip of the tongue – but it’s definitely very quotable. (This is where I got the quote: – very unexpected at that: Arctic Ghost Ship 2015: HMS Terror and Erebus Full PBS NOVA Documentary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2wyUjzDd0s)

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 3, 2018 9:26 am

      Only areas that have melted can freeze. The more melts, the more freezes.

  14. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 2, 2018 10:13 pm

    So the world surface temperature at head height is 0.1C warmer than the 30 year average starting from the cold period c.1979.

    And we are supposed to be alarmed?????

  15. September 2, 2018 10:24 pm

    Reblogged this on Lake Minnetonka Liberty and commented:
    Amidst all of the hottest evah claims, a dose of reality from UAH.

    Global temperatures fell back to 0.19C in August. This means the YTD average is 0.23C, putting them back to roughly where they were in 2002.

    Arctic sea ice is tracking close to 2014, which finished with one of the highest minimums in the last decade. Current extent is well above the last three years.

  16. GEORGE LET permalink
    September 3, 2018 3:36 am

    Arctic sea ice volume tells the situation even more so:
    http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/

    • dave permalink
      September 3, 2018 8:08 am

      Barring a late storm (which is not forecast) the sea-ice will be on the up again:

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

      • GEORGE LET permalink
        September 3, 2018 1:26 pm

        Looks that way
        https://arctic-roos.org/

      • dave permalink
        September 3, 2018 7:02 pm

        In the parlance of stock market chartists, this is a (‘bullish’) ‘reversed head and shoulders bottom:’

        http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

      • dave permalink
        September 3, 2018 7:25 pm

        “…this…”

        I mean the embedded little chart, on the lower right of the page, showing August monthly anomalies, year by year. If one clicks on the chart, there is enlargement.

        Incidentally the MASIE daily product for Arctic sea-ice extent shows:

        Aug 31 4, 474, 550 square kilometers

        Sep 1 4, 514, 946

        Sep 2 4, 648, 734

        So it would seem that the minimum for this year is probably now in place as a statistic, and it is 4, 474, 500 sq km. This compares to the minimum, in 2012, of 3, 368, 682 sq km.

        Six years of expansion of the ice, while global warming is “rapidly worsening”? Pull the other one!

      • AndyG55 permalink
        September 4, 2018 12:14 pm

        “So it would seem that the minimum for this year is probably now in place as a statistic”

        Much as I would like to agree, I think we need to wait a fortnight or so.

        Weather can have a large effect on sea ice at this time of year.

        If you look at other years, they bounce around quite a bit as well.

        Be patient before claiming the year’s minimum. 🙂

        Certainly the “Arctic sea ice death spiral” is a thing of the past,

        Notice that none of the AGW trolls are even mentioning it any more. 😉

  17. September 3, 2018 9:47 am

    On the above chart, I think that most of the map is white or very pale.
    I think it is better illustrated on this UAH map for July:

    IMHO it not the amount of “normal” temperature which is important, but the balance between high and low. It is biased to concentrate on the high, while ignoring the low.

    • dave permalink
      September 3, 2018 2:05 pm

      The Southern Hemisphere is naturally less variable*. Therefore, this is the half of the Globe to watch.

      *Because of the amount of Ocean.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      September 4, 2018 12:07 pm

      And global temperature anomaly dropped to +0.19ºC in UAH for August.

      Cooling in every region.

  18. Patrick Carroll permalink
    September 3, 2018 7:09 pm

    Mr. Homewood: The graph displays average global temperature anomalies, not average temperatures.

  19. Steve Smith permalink
    September 4, 2018 2:03 am

    I use references to your data all the time but help me understand the arctic ice data chart. It shows the last 5 years are all below the avg. from ‘80 to ‘00 ( below the 2 sigma point). Am I reading that correctly? If so, doesn’t that say that we have less ice now compared to that earlier period?

    • September 4, 2018 10:22 am

      Yes, there is less ice than in the 1980s, which was an excpetionally cold period in the Arctic.

      But since 2006, summer ice extent has stabilised, rather than spiralling downwards, as the “experts” predicted

      • Steve Smith permalink
        September 4, 2018 1:48 pm

        Thank you.

    • AndyG55 permalink
      September 4, 2018 12:03 pm

      Steve, Arctic sea ice is around the same now as around the 1940s

      Temperatures in the region were also about the same now as in the 1940s

      But Arctic sea ice is very much more extensive than during the first 9000 or so years of the current interglacial, in the top 10% probably

  20. September 4, 2018 9:03 am

    I learn more from the comments here than I do the articles! It is heartening to know there are rational level-headed people out there. Thank you all for fighting the good fight. And keep up the good work.

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