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Hurricane Florence: Nature’s Business as Usual, Not Climate Change

September 11, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

From Roy Spencer:

 

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Although it is still 3-4 days away, rapidly strengthening Hurricane Florence is increasing the threat of a major hurricane landfall somewhere within 120 miles or so of Wilmington, NC. If it reaches that area as a Cat 4 storm, the damage produced will be extensive, likely amounting to tens of billions of dollars.

By coincidence, the hurricane disaster (if it unfolds) will occur during this year’s Global Climate Action Summit (Sept. 12-14) in San Francisco, possibly the most star-studded climate alarmist extravaganza in existence, with climate experts such as Al Gore, Alec Baldwin, Andrea Mitchell, Catherine McKenna, Dave Matthews, Jane Goodall, John Kerry, and Tom Steyer.

As we all know, these are people who lead by example in their efforts to reduce their so-called carbon footprints.

Attendees of the conference are almost guaranteed to point to Florence as an example of what we can expect more of with global warming. But it’s curious how there hasn’t been a statistically significant increase in major hurricane strikes in the Carolinas (based upon NHC data), even assuming Florence hits as a Cat3+:

(The same is true in Florida.)

The 1950s was the stand-out decade for major hurricane strikes in the Carolinas, with Hurricane Hazel in 1954 doing major damage, even as far north as Toronto. Hazel’s destruction of Myrtle Beach, SC led to a massive rebuilding effort that transformed that community forever.

For sure, there has been an increase in hurricane damages over time, as infrastructure along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts has increased dramatically. There is simply more stuff for Mother Nature to destroy. But I doubt that the luminaries attending the Global Climate Action Summit this week can understand that increasing damages would occur even without any climate change.

Major hurricanes are business as usual for nature, just uncommon.

For now, let’s hope Florence weakens or stays offshore. But as the above chart shows, the Carolinas should not be surprised if a disaster occurs, at least based upon the history of major hurricane strikes.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/09/hurricane-florence-natures-business-as-usual-not-climate-change/

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17 Comments
  1. September 11, 2018 11:10 am

    The climate ambulance chasers will jump on any weather event that’s worth a headline, to push their propaganda. Lack of any clear trend is relevant to science, but not a problem to them.

  2. Jack Broughton permalink
    September 11, 2018 11:27 am

    The beauty about saying that any event is “consistent with AGW theory” is that it cannot be proved to be true or untrue. So far as I am aware there is not one prophesy from AGW theory that can be demonstrated. Even the temperature measurements are fudged by “homogenisation” – surely a word to be banned under the Donald’s regime??

    Amusingly, the Medical press have now admitted that even the death rate in Spain has been shown to fall during the exceptionally hot weather.

  3. September 11, 2018 11:37 am

    Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    GOOD to put things into perspective before the hoards of climate change ambulance chasers jump on the Florence ‘fear’ train…

  4. Jackington permalink
    September 11, 2018 12:17 pm

    Pah! Just wait for the Met Office/BBC to get their expert’s to comment then we’ll really know what’s going on viz: climate change of course.

    • September 12, 2018 8:14 am

      BBC radio 5 live this morning had a self-styled “expert” claiming that hurricanes are getting ever stronger and more numerous. The male climate-zealot presenter deployed the new “settled-science” weapon, which now gives license to any scientivist to say anything they like.

    • George Lawson permalink
      September 12, 2018 10:10 am

      Is it too much to ask the BBC to give balanced coverage to the hurricane rather than using only dedicated global warming fanatics to cover the subject?

  5. Vanessa permalink
    September 11, 2018 12:52 pm

    Something which irritates me so much is this adoption of the American phrase “for sure”. It means nothing and should be replaced by Of course, or certainly. Why do we have to adopt americana when we have the richest language on the planet – over 1 million words to the French 100,000!!

  6. September 11, 2018 1:03 pm

    In fall of 1962, as a new botany graduate student at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, I took advanced taxonomy to my major professor. After a field trip to the coastal areas, I wrote a class paper on the Outer Banks and found maps of hurricanes of the past, including back into the 1700’s. That coastal area might as well have had a sign which said “hit me.” The Outer Banks of past periods would be unrecognizable today. The 1940’s and early ’50’s was an especially active period in recent times. Visualize a plate of spaghetti.
    I found one map. It does not go back into the 1700’s, but you get the picture.

    • Gamecock permalink
      September 12, 2018 4:00 pm

      10-4, Joan. The Outer Banks will have some new inlets next week.

      Florence is certainly not unprecedented. Within my lifetime, we had Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989).

      I’m 160 miles inland from the Little River Inlet. Florence had been forecast to pass north of me. Now, they are calling for it to pass south of me. Being well inland, I should be fine. Winds to 35 mph, 3-4 inches of rain over a few days. Coastal areas will probably get over a foot of rain.

      • September 13, 2018 12:55 pm

        I remember hearing SC botanists at the Association of Southeastern Biologists meetings saying that 85% of the Francis Marion Forest was down after Hugo. They despaired of ever seeing a plant again it seemed. Then the next year, they were in awe of the wildflowers which had emerged with the added sunlight–species they never even knew existed there.

        As I recall from that long-ago paper, Oregon Inlet did not even exist until storms in the late 1940’s. There were eyewitness reports that in the 1700’s one could walk to the dunes of the Outer Banks by just jumping over a small creek. Then a storm created Pamlico Sound and no more dry feet.

        My sister-in-law, Mary, is from Timmonsville, near Florence.

        West Virginia is sending help your way. We are also facilitating moving traffic northbound by suspending all repairs on I-77 to open it fully. EMS, National Guard, and Swift Water Rescue and US Coast Guard units have already arrived, poised to dive in, so to speak, when the time comes. Yes, we have Coast Guard–think Ohio River. AND WV owns the whole river along our western border–we did not share it with Ohio.

        I just saw last night that 1000 members and growing of the Cajun Navy are on their way with their boats. God Bless the Cajun Navy.

      • Gamecock permalink
        September 13, 2018 10:59 pm

        Just came from Walmart. There was a squadron of Florida Power and Light trucks marshaled in the parking lot. I heard that 40,000 power company techs have gathered in the Carolinas, prepared to respond.

        GOD BLESS AMERICA !!!

      • Gamecock permalink
        September 15, 2018 2:59 am

        Joan, did you know Dr Wade Batson?

  7. September 11, 2018 2:24 pm

    Most focus is on the CAT number and wind speeds, but the speed of motion of the hurricane is critical in determining the amount of rainfall and flooding in any particular place. Watch out for worst-evah rainfall/flooding claims if Florence is a slow-moving one.

    • Gamecock permalink
      September 12, 2018 3:50 pm

      True. Hugo (Sept. 1989) came through here so fast after landfall that it hadn’t weakened much. It was more of a wind event than a rain event. Florence looks like it will be a rain event for me. If it doesn’t dip further south.

  8. September 11, 2018 4:18 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  9. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 11, 2018 9:37 pm

    Memorandum: “Climate: A unifying theory to the case“,
    Emailed from John Podesta to Chris Lehane, 28 January 2014.

    “2014 Action Plan…….Establishment of an extreme weather SWAT team prepared to work together and engage when extreme weather happens — including response; local outreach; media; science information about historic nature of the event;………. One cannot be handcuffed by data on a fundamental moral issue of this kind………”

    https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/ – “Since 2015 the World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative has been conducting real-time attribution analysis of extreme weather events as they happen around the world. This provides the public, scientists and decision-makers with the means to make clear connections between greenhouse gas emissions and impactful extreme weather events, such as storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts.”

    • September 13, 2018 1:13 pm

      Interesting that Mr. Podesta speaks of “handcuffed.” He might have future occasion to visit that term up-close and personal.

      Yesterday, the media began blaming President Trump for not having relief efforts–never mind the storm has not even hit. They are poised at locations to jump in when needed following it, however, but to the media those are irrelevant details. THEN they even named President Trump as the REASON for the hurricane as he pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord.

      They renewed efforts to blame him for Puerto Rico last summer. However, oops, photos have shown areas of supplies of water and food inside and outside covered with tarps which that looney woman mayor of San Juan REFUSED to distribute in order to blame Trump for not doing anything. PR was difficult due to decades of corrupt government which precluded adequate electric grid, etc. When rescue teams got there –by boat–there were not roads, etc. to get to people. And these are the ones who “care” about human life…..not so much.

      Same thing with New Orleans and Katrina. The main damage was from the levies which broke. Each levy was a political plum handed out to some political pall to administer. The money went to their pockets instead of to upgrading and inspecting the levies. Of course they had a dependent poor class which they had carefully crafted to be a reliable voting bloc which looked only to government. When Katrina hit and the levies broke they had no idea what to do and many died.

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