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Hurricane Florence Update

September 12, 2018

By Paul Homewood

The latest on Hurricane Florence:

cone graphic

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152637.shtml?cone#contents

Thankfully it is now expected that Florence will weaken a little before making landfall.

A slight shift in the track to the southeast as it approaches the coast seems to have given it a chance to weaken, and Florence may even only be a Cat 2 at landfall on Sat morning.

image

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/121456.shtml?

 

While this will still be a very powerful storm, it is not as bad as the Cat 4, or even Cat 5, that was forecast a couple of days ago.

Sustained wind speeds are currently 120 mph, or Cat 5 Cat 3 and may still restrengthen to Cat 4 overnight, but will likely then weaken as it nears the coast:

image

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/122036.shtml?

 

Rainfall is also now projected to be much less than originally thought, with the worst near the coast:

 

[Image of WPC QPF U.S. rainfall potential]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152637.shtml?rainqpf#contents

 

Let’s be totally clear about this. Florence is still going to be an extremely dangerous hurricane, and a very real threat to life.

It is also a reminder that the difference between a dangerous hurricane, and a catastrophic one is very fine indeed.

And the difference has absolutely nothing to do with global warming.

Very small changes in tracks, atmospheric weather systems, forward speed, upper atmospheric patterns, wind shear, and even timing of tides can all have a big impact on the severity of hurricanes.

Some may veer off back out to sea, others may make land fall at relatively unpopulated places. But occasionally, as with Katrina, everything seems to conspire to produce the worst possible of results.

I am sure I speak for all of us. For those in the path of the storm – please stay safe.

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18 Comments
  1. ben Dussan permalink
    September 12, 2018 10:17 pm

    Well said indeed

  2. Mack permalink
    September 12, 2018 10:28 pm

    Agreed Paul. Just a brief historical note, 78 hurricanes have hit North or South Carolina since local records were first compiled in 1851 so, sadly, their occurrence is not unusual and have occurred long before man’s carbon sins could ever have had any influence on their creation or impact. It is, perhaps, no coincidence that the local ice hockey team is called the Carolina Hurricanes.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      September 13, 2018 9:40 am

      Tony Heller has a very nice piece of history to confirm what you say.
      The News Headline is Category 4 Hurricane to hit the Carolinas on September 14.
      Except it was 1944.

  3. MrGrimNasty permalink
    September 12, 2018 10:42 pm

    “Sustained wind speeds are currently 120 mph, or Cat 5, and may still restrengthen to Cat 4 overnight, but will likely then weaken as it nears the coast:”

    You mean Cat 3 not 5!

    • Duker permalink
      September 13, 2018 6:19 am

      They arent giving the surface wind speeds as they will be lower than 120mph even.
      My pick is a wall collapse is likely and we will have a Cat 1 or 2 when it crosses coast.
      The info Im looking at from satellite measured wave heights gives it a max Cat 1 at present

    • September 13, 2018 10:24 am

      Sorry!!

  4. Joe Public permalink
    September 12, 2018 11:01 pm

    Anyone remember when climate change was blamed for the 12-year major hurricane drought the USA recently suffered?

    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/major-us-hurricane-drought-ends-after-record-4323-days

    Me neither.

    • Mack permalink
      September 12, 2018 11:23 pm

      Er, and wasn’t that the longest hurricane drought since the American Civil War? And what caused that earlier drought then? I blame Lincoln myself for breaking the 19th Century spell as some of the American MSM are already blaming Trump for Florence. Correlation and causation are natural bedfellows in the modern world of activist climate science unless, of course, the facts don’t fit the biased narrative. In which case, you hear diddly squat out of the Green Priesthood and their toadies in the MSM. Funny that.

  5. September 13, 2018 12:52 am

    The Washington Post reckons that “another hurricane is about to batter our coast and Trump is complicit”

    Whackadoodle hardly covers it

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      September 13, 2018 7:54 am

      Yes, amazing that it has nothing to do with the last president, who was in power for eight years. And of course there were no hurricanes until we started to burn fossil fuels.

  6. September 13, 2018 1:14 am

    fyi Space.com has a good collection of Florence imagery and thankfully manages not to blame Trump.

  7. Phillip Bratby permalink
    September 13, 2018 6:34 am

    The BBC says it is now cat 2 this morning.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      September 13, 2018 10:12 am

      Hopefully it will be a pussy-cat by Friday!

  8. NeilC permalink
    September 13, 2018 9:00 am

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.89,11.59,1118/loc=-64.692,26.512 shows it has weaken to a Cat 2, (0745UTC), first time I’ve ever agreed with the Biased Broadcasting C…..

  9. Kevin Cidle permalink
    September 13, 2018 9:35 am

    We may wish the residents well, but the AGW brigade will be seriously p****d off that there won’t now be a castrophe with much loss of life, such is their distorted mindset.

  10. Up2snuff permalink
    September 13, 2018 9:56 am

    The real danger here is that the Mentalist Enviros, Warmists & Climate Alarmists have been going at this so long and wrong that the public & their media are at greater risk because the temptation for them is to believe the utterances of those three groups that we can control the climate and, therefore, the weather.

    We can not.

    What we can do is adapt. Stop migrating to the coast in large numbers. Stop building inadequate housing at the coast, whether it is first homes, holiday (second) homes or retirement communities. It must be within the wit of modern humankind to build storm-proof dwellings and infrastructure.

    Far better to do that than waste money spoiling the environment with wind-turbines and wind farms.

  11. September 13, 2018 10:16 am

    Climate alarmists can’t seem to get it through their heads that there’s such a thing as the Atlantic hurricane season. Whether one impacts the US coast is down to meteorological factors such as wind direction.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane_season

  12. Tim Spence permalink
    September 13, 2018 10:42 am

    I see the latest forecast is for Florence to turn left (go directly west) on landfall and that would be a very rare outcome. As far as I can tell, the vast majority of Atlantic hurricanes turn right (north easterly) at or before landfall and the eye sometimes glances the coast (as with Sandy). Of course, having the centre of the storm tracking the coastline causes the most property damage.

    I understand blocking high and low pressure zones are valid phenomena that help predict outcomes of competing weather systems but I’m not convinced they put up much of a fight when faced with a hurricane.

    Should be interesting, good luck to all those caught up in it.

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