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Florida’s Major Hurricane Strikes: No Change In 120 Years

October 12, 2018

From Roy Spencer via GWPF:



Florida’s Major Hurricane Strikes: No Change In 120 Years

  • Roy Spencer

I’ve updated a plot of Florida major hurricane strikes since 1900 with Hurricane Michael, and the result is that there is still no trend in either intensity or frequency of strikes over the last 118 years:

This is based upon National Hurricane Center data. The trend line in intensity is flat, and the trend line in number of storms (not shown) is insignificantly downward.

Nevertheless, the usual fearmongers are claiming Hurricane Michael is somehow tied to climate change.

After all, the Gulf of Mexico is unusually warm, right?

Yes, but if you look at the history of Jul-Aug-Sept average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern Gulf (available here, 25N-30N, 80W-90W), you will see that since 1860, this summer is only the 9th warmest in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Even more astounding is that out of the top 10 warmest Gulf years since 1860, 7 occurred before 1970, which is before we experienced any significant warming.

So, all the “experts” can do is make vague claims about how major hurricanes like Michael are what we can expect more of in a warming world, but the data show that – so far at least – the data do not support the theory.

Major hurricanes are part of nature. As evidence of this, I will also remind people of the study of lake bottom sediments in Western Lake in the Florida panhandle, not far from where Michael made landfall, that showed the last 1,000 years have been relatively quiet for Category 4 to 5 hurricanes, but the period from 1,000 to 3,400 years ago was a “hyperactive” period for intense landfalls at that location.

Hurricane strikes in the U.S. are notoriously variable, as evidenced by the recent (and unprecedented) 11+ year “drought” in major hurricane landfalls, which was finally broken in 2017.

Where were the claims that the hurricane drought was due to global warming?


Attributing the latest hurricane in any way to global warming is the ultimate in cherry-picking the data. In fact, they don’t even show the data.

Which brings us back to those vague claims by the experts.


I also included Michael in the count of ALL U.S. landfalling major hurricanes, again from NHC data. The marked downward trend since the 1930s, 40s, and 50s is quite evident:

Where is the news story about THAT?

  1. Chris, Leeds permalink
    October 12, 2018 6:55 pm

    There is also the matter of how ‘windspeed at landing’ is measured! Has there been a change since the satellite era? Presumably in the days before the ’80s the windspeed could only be measured physically at a specific weather station – and it was surely ‘hit and miss’ (ahem!) whether the peak wind speed location within the Hurricane happened to coincide with the location of a weather station. This would likely mean that in those days the peak windspeed at landfall would be an underestimate, because it would be highly unlikely that the peak windspeed location coincided with a weather station. In contrast, in this present satellite era, particularly in the last 20 years, we surely have had satellite data of windspeeds and air pressure and other parameters that cover a vast array of locations. If this is the case it would mean that in those most recent decades we most likely HAVE been able to say what the peak windspeed was at landfall, because the satellites are ‘all seeing’. IF my assumption is correct we surely should expect to be seeing increases in windspeed for modern hurricanes, not because windspeed has actually increased, but because windspeed can be monitored right across the hurricane…

    • October 12, 2018 8:33 pm

      Windspeed gauges were also more prone to failure in hurricane conditions in the past.

      • October 12, 2018 10:06 pm

        I remember that in Hurricane Gilbert – was there – the gauge at the airport broke in a gust of 226 mph.

  2. October 12, 2018 10:38 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    Attributing the latest hurricane in any way to global warming is the ultimate in cherry-picking the data. In fact, they don’t even show the data.

  3. October 13, 2018 3:08 am

    Reblogged this on cosmoscon.

  4. October 13, 2018 4:29 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  5. Tim Spence permalink
    October 13, 2018 1:33 pm

    So in the end Hurricane Michael killed 13 people after being described as one of the biggest storms evah!

    Meanwhile 13 died in the small village of San Lorrenç in Mallorca, after 12″ of rain in one hour. Most of the deaths caused by people remaining in their cars after getting into difficulty.

    • Tim Spence permalink
      October 13, 2018 1:35 pm


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