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New Report Shows UK Weather Is Not Getting More Extreme

October 23, 2018
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood


I am pleased to announce that GWPF has today published my first paper for them:


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London, 23 October: Met Office weather data shows that the UK’s climate is changing very little. That’s according to a new briefing paper from the Global Warming Policy Foundation.

The review, which examines official temperature, rainfall, drought and other weather data shows that although temperatures increased slightly in the 1990s and 2000s, there is no evidence that weather has become more extreme. And intriguingly, extreme heat is, if anything, slightly less common than in previous decades.

In particular, heatwaves have not become more severe and nor have droughts. Data also suggest that recent warming has had little effect on the severity of flooding in the UK.

It’s the same story with rainfall. While Scotland has become a little wetter, elsewhere in the UK there is no trend. Extreme rainfall and storms don’t seem to be more common either. It’s hard not to come away with the impression that the climate in the UK has been much more stable than predicted. As the report’s author Paul Homewood points out,

“Although we don’t seem to be getting more heatwaves, there are fewer very cold days now. Similarly, very dry years seem to be less common than they once were. It’s hard to construe these as dangerous or damaging developments. Warmer, but not more extreme, sounds more like a Goldilocks climate than a climate catastrophe.”

Full paper: DEFRA versus Met Office: Fact-checking the state of the UK climate (pdf)



Below is the Executive Summary:



  1. October 23, 2018 6:32 pm

    Well done Paul. You deserve the recognition.

    • Ian permalink
      October 23, 2018 6:51 pm


    • Joe Public permalink
      October 23, 2018 10:17 pm


      • David Richardson permalink
        October 23, 2018 11:25 pm

        Plus another 1

      • A C Osborn permalink
        October 24, 2018 11:16 am

        Oh come on guys stop messing about.
        Plus another 100 at least.

  2. October 23, 2018 6:57 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  3. Jack Broughton permalink
    October 23, 2018 7:14 pm

    A bit surprised that you did not mention the increasing sunshine hours since the late 1960s.
    This correlates closely with the temperature rise of the 1990s: CO2 does not!
    Could this be another GWPF paper?

  4. Chris, Leeds permalink
    October 23, 2018 7:32 pm

    For those of you who know it the book written by John Kington, “Climate and Weather’, part of the Collins New Naturalist series, takes a look at the long history of change in the climate and weather of the UK. Part of the book presents a year-by-year description of weather extremes and the changes that have occurred decade by decade. What this confirms is that there is and never was a steady type of weather in the UK and makes a nonsense of the IPCC and others who talk about a “pre-industrial temperature” as if there was a steady mean temperature until humans got involved. Kington’s book also confirms how extreme weather events have taken place in the UK ever since humans could write down such things and that many of the fiercest storms, worst floods, droughts, heatwaves and cold winters occurred in earlier centuries. Sounds like Paul’s work just confirms that we are having weather just like we always have.

    • Rowland P permalink
      October 24, 2018 5:07 am

      Any farmer will vouch for the fact that no 2 years have had the same weather.

  5. HotScot permalink
    October 23, 2018 7:45 pm

    Well done Paul. And thank you for all your time and effort.

  6. October 23, 2018 8:29 pm

    Good job Paul. I didn’t read the full PDF yet, but if it is not already stated, I would add that all the alarmist dire weather and climate predictions are based on unvalidated climate models that have not been proven to have any skill at global or regional levels – making them worthless. The climate models amount to little more than wild speculation that anyone could make.

    • Svend Ferdinandsen permalink
      October 23, 2018 8:46 pm

      I have not seen climate models doing weather. At best they can do some global temperature, but even regional they fail big time. Weather models can do a few days and climate models are not build to do that.

      • October 23, 2018 11:46 pm

        Svend, I consider climate models as crippled global weather models, so I seem them as practically the same. There is very little or no skill at predicting beyond about 5 or 6 days and no reliable skill at months, much less years and decades.

  7. Svend Ferdinandsen permalink
    October 23, 2018 8:36 pm

    Warmer climate gives more violent weather!
    Well, the summertimes with warm weather have less violent weather than the fall and winter when it is colder. Is’n that funny?

  8. Mack permalink
    October 23, 2018 11:00 pm

    Brilliant analysis Paul, as per usual. Not nitpicking, but in the Executive Summary quoted above is there not a typo? ’21th’ instead of ’21st’ on the second line? You know our alarmist friends would find a misplaced consonant justification enough to dismiss what is a very authorative piece of work without actually reading any further!

  9. matelot 69 permalink
    October 23, 2018 11:13 pm

    Brilliant analysis, but my wife and I are quite disappointed you didn’t manage to bring porridge into it somewhere! (sorry lol)

  10. Athelstan permalink
    October 24, 2018 8:53 am

    I quite like the weather, the British climate is what it does, slightly warmer is great and not a thing man can do about it…………….unless.

    However, slightly cooler and we’re all in trouble, now that the ‘green agenda’ policy has caused a energy supply cluster****. We need the climate to stay on message – warmer.

    Thanks to our politicians and twenty five years or more of incompetent meddling and imposing useless green ‘technologies’: ,we all need to get down on our knees and pray for warm winters.

    The climate, the system is chaotic and imperious but the endless propensity of mankind’s stupidity is a known unknown, the big problem is, when politicians and some scientists start to believe that that are God and doing his works.

    Have they never considered that; coal, gas and oil were natural deposits and truly God given?

    answers on a postcard please, remit to, Claire Perry @ Beis.governmentcockups4us.

  11. Gerry, England permalink
    October 24, 2018 1:50 pm

    Had listen to the drivel of extreme weather getting worse at a section meeting last week as they droned on about the City of London Transport Strategy. Perhaps somebody should submit this report in response to the consultation when it opens next month. The 15mph speed limit is a laugh since it is illegal and not enforceable given speedometers do not need to record below 20mph and if your vehicle can do no more than 20mph you don’t need a speedo at all.

  12. October 24, 2018 4:34 pm

    Your report was an excellent and readable look at our climate. Deserves to reach a wide audience.

  13. paul weldon permalink
    October 25, 2018 2:14 pm

    An excellent summary, Paul, except for a couple of points: it somehow missed a little ”bite”. Perhaps the need to take a certain tone for this particular presentation meant was the reason , but the certainly need to be woken up when their rhetoric is not supported by their own data. As they appear to be pretty deaf, this means one has to shout pretty loud!
    Secondly, I would contest the timing of the rise in UK temperatures. Having worked recently with a lot of the CET data, I have come to the conclusion that the rise in UK temperatures was mostly in the 1980s, continued into the 1990s but at a slower rate, and has been flat since 1998. That means that the sequence of warming was a decade earlier than what you have stated, and makes the hiatus even longer. I have also found that there is a difference in timing depending on whether one uses CET or official Midland data, with the difference narrowing by half a degree over the period 1910 to present. That half a degree makes a lot of difference to how one analyses the data (both are adjusted).
    The fact that the UK temperature rose by around 1 degree C over the short period of a decade I would not call.’’slight’’, but in the context of variations over the last few centuries I would rather call it substantial, though as you say, not unprecedented.

  14. October 26, 2018 2:21 pm

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    An excellent report Paul.

  15. saparonia permalink
    November 1, 2018 12:41 pm

    Well Done!!

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