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Gove’s Climate Nonsense

November 26, 2018

By Paul Homewood

 

Michael Gove goes fully mental on climate!

image

I want to begin on a personal note. I am fortunate as Secretary of State for the Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to work alongside some of the most gifted, dedicated and impressive public servants in the country.

Given the strength in depth of the departmental team, and their willingness to work so hard for the common good, it is invidious to single any one out.

But there is one individual, and one team, to whom I, and we all in this country, owe a special debt.

And that is to Professor Ian Boyd, Defra’s Chief Scientific Adviser, and his team.

Everything we do at Defra has to be rooted in science. Whether it is reflecting on the future of food, farming or the marine environment, considering what our approach should be to the chemicals we use in agriculture, revising how we should manage our water resources, reviewing how we enhance biodiversity, assessing where the greatest productivity gains from new technologies might accrue or in a countless number of other different areas, policy must be shaped above all by evidence, reason and rigour. And there are few people more adept at assessing the evidence, deploying reason to make sense of it and applying the lessons for public policy with real rigour than Ian and his team. I want to take this opportunity today to put on record how profoundly grateful I am for his leadership.

And there is perhaps no area of public policy where scientific rigour is required in shaping policy making than in dealing with the challenge of climate change.

THE EVIDENCE ALL AROUND US

Today, as we launch the fourth generation of our UK Climate Projections, it is clear that the planet and its weather patterns are changing before our eyes.

Sea levels, for example – which we are becoming more accurate at measuring, thanks to advances in instruments and monitoring systems. In the 20th century the oceans rose around 15cm and the rate of increase has since quickened. Just since 2000, levels have risen around six centimetres, based on a global-average rise of 3.2mm a year. Our seas are storing increasing amounts of heat: around half of all ocean warming has occurred since 1997. Even as we take action to slow carbon dioxide pollution now, physics dictates that the climate will keep heating up for decades to come.

Peer-reviewed scientific research states that the rapid warming is substantially due to the methane, nitrous oxide, and fossil fuel emissions we produce.

The great ice sheets of Greenland and some parts of Antarctica are increasingly unstable. Rising seas are rendering the storm surges not only of hurricanes but also regular high tides more of a threat.

THE IMPACT ON THE EVERYDAY

Food and water security are affected, as is national security. Across the planet, people, plants, animals and also diseases are on the move, searching for habitats in which to thrive, escaping erratic and extreme weather events which deliver too much rain, too little rain, searing summer temperatures, colder winters.

Science is clear that there will be changes in ecosystems caused by the climate. WWF’s recent Living Planet report revealed a 60% fall in global wildlife populations in just over 40 years. One of the main causes of this devastating decline is climate change.

We cannot predict the net effects to ecosystems, but the likelihood is that many will be negative. Some native flora and fauna will struggle. Marine ecosystems will experience warmer and more acidic seas. New pests and diseases could thrive. Deteriorating soil quality and moisture, coupled with less reliable water supply, will reduce agricultural yields, as we have already seen this summer.

Around the world, fears are growing for the existence of some low-lying countries – most of the 1,000 or so Marshall Islands, covering 29 slender coral atolls in the South Pacific, are less than six feet above sea level – and the future of a great number of coastal cities, including Miami, New York and Venice.

And while climate change cannot be blamed for growing wealth inequality, it is the case that it disproportionately affects nations with the least resources to cope – nations which have also contributed least to emissions in the first place. In the coming years, they will expect the developed world to deliver what Mary Robinson, the former Irish president and environmental campaigner, calls ‘climate justice’ – sharing fairly the burdens and benefits of climate change and its impacts.

Still Time to Act

In all, 91 authors from 40 countries, including the UK, spent two years developing the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change into the impact it is having on the natural world. They assessed over 6,000 scientific papers and received 42,000 expert comments.

The final report – an impressive display of international collaboration – makes clear that the 1.5˚C warming limit is still within reach – if nations can act together. Panel members argue that in order to stay within the limit, global net greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activity need to be zero by the middle of the century.

By 2050, we are committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80%, compared to 1990 levels. Since 1990 we have cut emissions by 42% – faster than any other G7 nation – and our economy has grown by two-thirds. Tackling climate change is not a binary process which requires us to champion the planet over national prosperity. Indeed market mechanisms, like reverse auctions for new clean energy capacity and the carbon price on electricity generation, have been hugely successful in delivering these cuts in emissions.

You will know that reducing emissions in order to mitigate climate change in the UK is the responsibility of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, under the excellent leadership of my colleagues Greg Clark, the Secretary of State, and Claire Perry, the cabinet minister with responsibility for climate change. Their Clean Growth Strategy, published last year, set out a comprehensive suite of policies to meet our climate targets and to capture the industrial opportunities from clean growth. I also welcomed Claire’s letter to the Committee on Climate Change last month requesting advice on a net zero emissions target.

Defra’s particular brief is to help adapt to a warming planet, supporting the developing world to do the same, and contributing to global diplomatic and scientific initiatives to understand climate change’s effects.

But because we are also responsible for sectors of our waste policy, agriculture, landscapes and f-gases – Defra necessarily has a significant role in mitigation as well.

In a moment, I will go into greater detail about the opportunities we have identified – within domestic agriculture and wider land use, our approach to storing and managing water, our reforms of resources and waste cycles plus international action to support other countries cope with climate change – to ensure that we are even better placed to manage future risks, adapt to threats and increase resilience and preparedness.

First, however, I want to look at how climate change is reshaping our environment in slightly greater detail.

FACTS ON THE GROUND

Insurance data shows that between 1980 and 2016, the number of climate-related natural catastrophes, like flooding, rose several times faster than disasters with a geological source: erupting volcanoes, tsunamis, or severe earthquakes.

In Africa, the Sahara Desert has grown in size by 10 per cent since 1920. Scientists believe that about two-thirds of the change might be down to natural cycles, and the rest to climate change. The Desert’s edges – defined by rainfall, or the lack of it – have crept northward and southward, reducing some countries’ ability to grow food. The Sahara has encroached 500miles into Libya for example, in winter months.

Just recently in America, Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida panhandle in October with winds of around 155mph, making this the strongest storm to hit the continental United States since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. At least 32 people died as the hurricane tore through Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, and more than a million people were left without power. Barely a month later and California’s wildfires are the deadliest in the history of the state, which in the past five years has experienced four of the five warmest summers on record. Towering ‘firenadoes’ engulfed brush, trees and scrub which was bone-dry because autumn rainfall again arrived late – and there has been up to 30% less rain than average. Tragically, for those who lost their lives and homes, the season of strong offshore winds began on schedule – fanning flames that would have spread less easily in damper conditions.

It’s not only in typically hot, dry countries where extremes of weather are felt. Climate change is warming polar regions twice as fast as other parts of the world. In July this year, wildfires spread across Arctic regions in Sweden. While not unprecedented, the fires have become bigger over the past 15 years as boreal forests, tundra and peatlands dry up, meaning the fires are harder to put out.

In the UK, we have experienced our own share of extremes. Nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2002 and the mean sea level around the UK, corrected for land movement, has risen by about 16cm since the start of the 20th century.

Already, the winter of 2013-2014 was the wettest on record for the UK. And then, between November 2015 and January 2016, we experienced the most rain ever in that period, saturating the ground and causing some of the most severe floods in a century.

It will take a long time for people in Northumberland, Cumbria, Lancashire and Yorkshire to forget the devastation caused by Storms Desmond and Eva. Around 16,000 houses were inundated and some river levels were up to a metre higher than previous records. Communities were devastated, infrastructure was damaged, and for many families and businesses the financial hardship and emotional distress lasted long after the floodwaters had receded.

As for 2018, during a six-week spell in summer, daytime temperatures consistently topped 30C. Wildfires burned for weeks on Saddleworth Moor and Winter Hill as well as other areas, damaging precious peat bogs and harming nesting birds such as curlews, the golden plover and lapwings. Crops wilted in parched fields and farmers had to dig into their winter silage to feed livestock struggling in poor grazing conditions.

Now it is, of course, impossible for anyone to predict the future with absolute certainty. But we are in the UK fortunate to have climate scientists whose knowledge and experience are world-leading. In producing this first major update of climate projections for nearly 10 years, they have given governments, local authorities, land managers, national infrastructure bodies and other businesses an invaluable set of tools with which to assess the nature and scale of challenges, and take decisions accordingly. The projections – based on a range of emissions scenarios – will enable them to make sensible, practical choices based on scientific evidence that will save time, hardship and money when the storms do come.

For the first time, there are international projections as well as regional projections. This means other nations will be able to use the data – to gauge the risks for food supply chains, perhaps, or check rainfall projections for the likelihood of localised flooding.

The projections show quite clearly the benefit of limiting emissions.

Under the highest emission scenario, warming by 2070 is in the range 0.9˚C to 5.4°C in summer, compared to the recent past (1981-2000).

Sea levels are projected to continue to rise around the UK to the year 2100 – and reach higher levels than were forecast in the 2009 data. For London, under the high emissions scenario, levels are likely to be at least 53cm higher, and could be as much as 1.15m. That was not unexpected, however, and I can confirm that it has already been factored into our flooding adaptation planning.

It is because we know further climate changes are inevitable – notwithstanding strenuous international efforts to limit their extent – that we are planning for a wide range of possible futures. It would be irresponsible in the circumstances to do otherwise. This is why we are aiming to limit warming to well below 2 degrees – but the environment agency is preparing for 4 degrees when planning flood defences. We know that every half a degree makes an enormous difference to outcomes. Keeping warming to 1.5˚C rather than 2˚C, as the Paris Agreement urges us to attempt, spares up to 10million people from being exposed to the risks of rising seas, according to the IPCC.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/michael-gove-speech-on-uk-climate-change-projections

So let’s examine his main claims:

1) Sea levels, for example – which we are becoming more accurate at measuring, thanks to advances in instruments and monitoring systems. In the 20th century the oceans rose around 15cm and the rate of increase has since quickened. Just since 2000, levels have risen around six centimetres, based on a global-average rise of 3.2mm a year

This is a grossly misleading statement. Sea levels have been steadily rising since the mid 19thC, when glaciers worldwide, which had grown enormously during the Little Ice Age, began to recede.

And as the IPCC have admitted, sea level rise in recent years has been no higher than between 1920 and 1950.

In short, sea level rise has not “quickened” at all.

https://i1.wp.com/www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Sea-level-data-since-1855.jpg

http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Sea-level-data-since-1855.jpg

 

2) The great ice sheets of Greenland and some parts of Antarctica are increasingly unstable.

There is no evidence whatsoever that Greenland’s climate is warmer than it has been for most of the time since the Ice Age. Nor that its ice sheet is smaller.

What we do know is that the Little Ice Age was the coldest time in Greenland in the last 10,000 years.

As for Antarctica, the ice sheet there has actually been growing in the last two decades.

 

3) Across the planet, people, plants, animals and also diseases are on the move, searching for habitats in which to thrive, escaping erratic and extreme weather events

These plants (triffids?), critters and iffy diseases who are migrating to escape extreme weather must be might clever! They must know more than the IPCC, which has already had to admit that there is little evidence to support the claim that global warming has made extreme weather worse.

 

4) WWF’s recent Living Planet report revealed a 60% fall in global wildlife populations in just over 40 years. One of the main causes of this devastating decline is climate change

I am not sure why Mr Gove feels he can rely on “scientific” evidence from a left wing, activist group.

There are many reasons for the decline in wildlife populations, such as habitat loss. But every time claims about climate change are examined in detail, they fall apart.

 

5) Deteriorating soil quality and moisture, coupled with less reliable water supply, will reduce agricultural yields, as we have already seen this summer.

The facts show that there is no long term trend in summer rainfall in the UK, and that there have been many drier summers than this year’s.

 

UK Rainfall - Summer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

 

6) Around the world, fears are growing for the existence of some low-lying countries – most of the 1,000 or so Marshall Islands, covering 29 slender coral atolls in the South Pacific, are less than six feet above sea level – and the future of a great number of coastal cities, including Miami, New York and Venice.

Leaving aside the fact already mentioned that sea levels have been rising for largely natural reasons since the 19thC, experts have shown that most global atolls are either stable or growing.

As for Miami, New York and Venice, they all show that sea levels were rising at their peak rate around 1950. Sea levels have been rising since the 19thC , and the rate is not accelerating. At current rates of sea level rise, it is simply not true to say that the future of cities like New York and Miami are threatened.

 

270-054_meantrend

270-054_50yr

 8518750_meantrend

8518750_50yr

8720030_50yr8720030_meantrend

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global.html 

7) Tackling climate change is not a binary process which requires us to champion the planet over national prosperity.

Has he forgotten that, according to the OBR, the cost of green subsidies will amount to £66bn over the next five years, equating to about £2500 per household?

image

https://obr.uk/efo/economic-fiscal-outlook-october-2018/ 

8) Insurance data shows that between 1980 and 2016, the number of climate-related natural catastrophes, like flooding, rose several times faster than disasters with a geological source: erupting volcanoes, tsunamis, or severe earthquakes.

Surely he knows that you cannot use insurance claims data to evaluate trends in weather disasters? Since 1980, the cost of claims has risen in leaps and bounds, not because the disasters are worse than before, but because many more things are insured these days, areas prone to floods, storms etc have grown rapidly in population, and as individuals and societies have grown richer the value of goods and infrastructure at risk has increased.

Analysis of the cost of weather disasters has shown that it has actually declined over the years as a proportion of GDP.

 

9) In Africa, the Sahara Desert has grown in size by 10 per cent since 1920. Scientists believe that about two-thirds of the change might be down to natural cycles, and the rest to climate change. The Desert’s edges – defined by rainfall, or the lack of it – have crept northward and southward.

It is true that the northern edge of the Sahara has moved north. However, it is not true that it has also expanded south.

On the contrary, the Sahel at the southern edge of the Sahara has actually been regreening in the last three decades, as the tropical rain belts spread northwards from the Equator.

 

10) Just recently in America, Hurricane Michael made landfall in the Florida panhandle in October with winds of around 155mph, making this the strongest storm to hit the continental United States since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.

Gove claims that this is an example of how climate change is reshaping our environment.

If he bothered to check the actual data with the US Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, he would know that the number of major hurricane strikes on the US has been declining over the years:

image

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

 

Only three Cat 5 hurricanes have hit the US:

  • Labor Day – 1935
  • Camille – 1969
  • Andrew – 1992

The most powerful was the Labor Day storm.

 

11) California’s wildfires are the deadliest in the history of the state, which in the past five years has experienced four of the five warmest summers on record. Towering ‘firenadoes’ engulfed brush, trees and scrub which was bone-dry because autumn rainfall again arrived late – and there has been up to 30% less rain than average

The wildfires may be the deadliest, but that is solely because the population now living in areas at risk of fire has risen dramatically over the years. For instance, the population of Paradise, the epicentre of the latest fire, has exploded from 8000 in 1960, to 26000 now.

He claims that autumn rainfall has been late and below average, but this is actually a very common event in California:

canvas

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/2/10/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

It is in any event a myth that wildfires in the US are worse now than in the past.

image_thumb25

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/wildfires-were-much-worse-in-past/ 

 

12) In the UK, we have experienced our own share of extremes. Nine of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2002 and the mean sea level around the UK, corrected for land movement, has risen by about 16cm since the start of the 20th century.

Gove fails to explain why a slightly warmer climate has been a bad thing for the UK.

As for sea levels, as with other locations around the world, the rate peaked during the 1940s.

170-053_meantrend

170-053_50yr

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_country.html?gid=1222

 

13) In the UK, we have experienced our own share of extremes. The winter of 2013-2014 was the wettest on record for the UK

He confuses weather with climate.

Long term data shows no evidence that winter rainfall has become more extreme, certainly not since the 1870s:

 

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/seasonal/HadEWP_ssn.dat

 

I might just as well point out that the wettest month on record was October 1903, and the wettest year 1872. And then argued that our weather is becoming less extreme.

 

14) As for 2018, during a six-week spell in summer, daytime temperatures consistently topped 30C. Wildfires burned for weeks on Saddleworth Moor and Winter Hill as well as other areas, damaging precious peat bogs and harming nesting birds such as curlews, the golden plover and lapwings

Again, this is just weather.

The hottest summer on record in the UK is still 1976, which remains by far the most intense heatwave experienced in recent history in the UK:

 

UK Mean daily maximum temp - Summer

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly

Indeed, until this summer, there has been a succession of unremarkable summers since 2006.

15) Now it is, of course, impossible for anyone to predict the future with absolute certainty. But we are in the UK fortunate to have climate scientists whose knowledge and experience are world-leading. In producing this first major update of climate projections for nearly 10 years, they have given governments, local authorities, land managers, national infrastructure bodies and other businesses an invaluable set of tools with which to assess the nature and scale of challenges, and take decisions accordingly. The projections – based on a range of emissions scenarios – will enable them to make sensible, practical choices based on scientific evidence that will save time, hardship and money when the storms do come.

For the first time, there are international projections as well as regional projections. This means other nations will be able to use the data – to gauge the risks for food supply chains, perhaps, or check rainfall projections for the likelihood of localised flooding.

The projections show quite clearly the benefit of limiting emissions.

Under the highest emission scenario, warming by 2070 is in the range 0.9˚C to 5.4°C in summer, compared to the recent past (1981-2000).

Sea levels are projected to continue to rise around the UK to the year 2100 – and reach higher levels than were forecast in the 2009 data. For London, under the high emissions scenario, levels are likely to be at least 53cm higher, and could be as much as 1.15m. That was not unexpected, however, and I can confirm that it has already been factored into our flooding adaptation planning.

Here, Gove, not to mention all of those world leading climate scientists enter La La Land.

As noted in a recent GWPF report, such ridiculous projections have absolutely no basis in reality.

Gove boasts about his Chief Scientific Adviser and team. But if this is the best advice they can give him, heaven help all of us!

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60 Comments
  1. November 26, 2018 7:14 pm

    He obviously thinks whining about weather conditions is a vote winner.

  2. mwhite permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:15 pm

    From Tony Hellers site,

    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/11/met-office-forecasts/

    “The graphs below show the number of days above 70 degrees at all UK GHCN stations. There is no indication that UK summers are getting hotter.”

    • November 26, 2018 7:42 pm

      The only station with a rising trend is Oxford, which is known to suffer from UHI, and a curious lack of residents fleeing from it.

  3. November 26, 2018 7:16 pm

    CP Snow spoke about the two cultures, and Gove is 100% in the wrong one, hence his parroting of green-wash.

  4. markl permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:21 pm

    At least he’s consistent with all the other climate scare mongers. How they can spout pseudo facts over and over and get away with it is beyond me.

  5. JimW permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:30 pm

    Most of the ‘western world’ gets this stuff rammed down its throat every single day from sources that line up to keep the message loud and clear. My family consists of three degree plus level kids , no more ‘lefties’ than usual for younger working people living their lives in their own places. My wife listens to me ranting on about how silly it all is, she knows it is. However they all succumb to the never-ending brainwashing. Its just easier to think there must be something ‘real’ about it. Peer pressure, life is difficult enough, not enough time ( or inclination) to really question it, its ‘nice’ to be part of the crowd especially as its warm and fuzzy to be ‘greenish’.
    Your brilliant blog, other ones like WUWT etc are great, but only reach those who basically have enough time and knowledge to know anyway. In the face of the blizzard of MSM, governmental and most internet outlet indoctrination its a lost cause.
    A weird mixture of ‘unscience’, big money, control freak politicians and pseudo-religious freaks will increasingly rule our lives. I am glad I am not 40 years younger, and that is a very sad thing to say.

    • November 26, 2018 9:12 pm

      What an intelligent and thought-provoking post, Jim W. We have two sons and four grandchildren and I fear for their futures. Like you, I am afraid they will be dragooned into false truths even though we do our best to avoid otherwise.

    • Saighdear permalink
      November 26, 2018 11:50 pm

      ‘…but only reach those who basically have enough time and knowledge to know anyway….’ I concur, As I and other have repeatedly stated, we / you guys seem to be stuck in this echo chamber. I just don’t know how to break out of it in a civilised way. Cults and fashions, etc change and when you are too busy pedaling against the Current to survive and bring up a family, there are unfortunately too many other things to be done ( charity begins at home).We used to wear hobnail boots for the Hill, but the EU put paid to that as did fashions – so its useless trainers for all…. yes Trainers – as in educators maybe? Perhaps.

      • November 27, 2018 12:15 pm

        I wouldn’t worry too much: poll after poll shows the general public totally unimpressed by the much spouted warming/climate fraud.

        As Dr. Tim Ball says, “they’re in holding mode, they know something is not right.”

        His new little gem of a book exposes the whole fraud in only 121 pages, & he names names: Human Caused Global Warming, The Biggest Deception In History. Written for the non-scientist, a possible Christmas present for your kids?

        Website: http://www.drtimball.com

        John Doran.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        November 27, 2018 1:41 pm

        If the people understood the real cost to them in their pockets they would take a less acquiescent line – just like the French have. Without a functioning democracy that is probably the only way.

  6. Silver Dynamite permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:32 pm

    Gove clearly didn’t write this garbage. It is another example (like semi-Brexit) of the disintegration of an honourable civil service in the U.K.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      November 27, 2018 1:46 pm

      As ministers flit through jobs they are unlikely to have any real knowledge of their post since they are universally thick. If they don’t like the job then will expend no great effort to learn but do what is necessary to get a more plum job. Given their tenures are actually often quite short, they would not be able to learn even if they were able and will just take for granted what their civil servants or SPADs tell them. And the days of an independent civil service were ended by Blair and his cronies.

    • Old Englander permalink
      November 27, 2018 5:44 pm

      Agreed. And Gove is most peculiar politician on the British scene today. First he’s pro-Brexit, then he thinks that “BRINO” is good enough. What’s behind it I can’t fathom, unless it’s just the idea that the slipperier you are, the further you’ll go in politics, and his whole personality fits with that approach.

  7. Colin Brooks permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:35 pm

    Could it not be that the ultra slippery Gove is simply securing his get out of jail free card by praising so highly Prof Boyd?

    • November 26, 2018 8:24 pm

      He’s been doing that for a while!!

      He fell out with the establishment when he fought the “Blob” as Education Secretary.

      I really respected him then.

      However since he has reverted to establishment type, first as Justice Secretary (where he reversed Grayson’s legal aid and prison reforms), and now at DEFRA.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        November 27, 2018 1:42 pm

        He was actually doing a good job with education – he must have been as the leftwing teaching establishment were screaming.

  8. Bill Scott permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:41 pm

    Grove et al, do not write speeches, they are written by bureaucrats, who naturally include statements as to how good they are, Grove is a little man in all respects and probably was given his speech on the way to the meeting. One can be sure that any Climate bureaucrats will never write themselves out their job.

    • tom0mason permalink
      November 27, 2018 12:19 pm

      A note from Sir Humphrey Appleby:

      In as far as can be ascertained Minister Gove has followed the tradition of the apportioning tasks between the ministry and, dare I say it, the more knowledgeable and experienced civil service.
      That is to say in the traditional proper allocation of executive responsibilities has always been so determined as to liberate the ministerial incumbent from the administrative minutiae by devolving the managerial functions to those whose experience and qualifications have better formed them for the performance of such humble offices, thereby releasing their political overlords for the more onerous duties and profound deliberations which are the inevitable concomitant of their exalted position.

  9. Lezz permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:47 pm

    I used to credit Gove with a sense of balance and an ability to scrutinise.
    Seems like he’s lost his grip. Very sad.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      November 26, 2018 8:08 pm

      It seems a long time since he was responsible for education, seemed to have some sensible ideas (called controversial so obviously right!), and he made one or two impressive appearances on QT. It’s been a rapid slide into slimy two-faced establishment shilldom. Who knows what can explain the change, promises, money and power I expect.

    • John Palmer permalink
      November 26, 2018 9:17 pm

      He’s a slippery, two-faced s-o-b.
      But his wife loves him ???

      • roger permalink
        November 26, 2018 10:23 pm

        He is a preposterous little prick easily conned into accepting and promoting preposterous propositions on behalf of the subsidy sucking classes.
        God help England should he become PM as some morons wish.

  10. Robert Fairless permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:55 pm

    Whatever garbage they chose to support, it is certain to cost billions all paid for by the ordinary citizen whatever his views may be. The infamous Climate Change Act is a case in point: it made a few very very rich and impoverished the majority as well as failing to achieve anything worthwhile.

  11. Chilli permalink
    November 26, 2018 7:58 pm

    > The projections show quite clearly the benefit of limiting emissions.

    How so? Even if his idiotic projections were correct – how would cutting the UK’s 1% contribution to global man-made CO2 emissions affect the weather, given China, India and Africa will go on increasing theirs for many decades to come. Nonsense on stilts.

    • November 26, 2018 8:18 pm

      Quite. This sort of scenario is mentioned in Darwall’s report on the Climate Change Act 2008. “Free-riding” undermines any unilateral national efforts. For some reason we have become collectively stupid in this country. Rather than sell our reductions as part of a global agreement where *every* country has to chip in, we have the ridiculous spectacle of Paris where a few guilt-ridden countries just offer to do it alone, hoping to set some sort of noble example that others will follow.

      Newsflash to Gove et al.: they ain’t following us. They’re *laughing* at us, while we destroy our industry and they take up the slack, while we drive millions into fuel poverty while they massively expand coal power, in short, while they become richer and we become poorer.

      We have thrown in our best card without asking for anything from across the table.

  12. John F. Hultquist permalink
    November 26, 2018 8:17 pm

    About the California fires:
    Cliff Mass Weather and Climate Blog

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-did-catastrophic-camp-fire-start.html

    and

    http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2018/11/was-global-warming-significant-factor.html

    These are very good. Further, Cliff has had a number of nasty hits by activists because of his data driven analysis.

    ~ ~ ~~ ~ ~

    I used to manage a small bookstore.
    I would file this speech by Mr. Gove on the Fantasy shelf.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      November 27, 2018 1:48 pm

      In a small bookstore it would be a waste of space even stocking it.

  13. November 26, 2018 8:26 pm

    Projections are worthless; they are just continuations of what had gone on before. They are not predictions or forecasts. They are totally worthless. The civil service loves projections, as they take no effort to produce without any necessity for thought and they are totally unscientific (they can be done with a flexi-curve (anybody remember them?)).

    I give you bits of the ONS (Office for National Statistics) definition of projections:

    “Projections are not forecasts”
    “They do not attempt to predict the impact of future government or local policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors”
    “Projections are not a prediction or forecast”

    It is noted that Professor Ian Lamont Boyd is described as a Scottish zoologist and an environmental and polar scientist. That is why he knows so little about the climate and shuns the scientific method.

  14. HotScot permalink
    November 26, 2018 9:12 pm

    Useless, nasty, cretinous, political ladder climber.

    The UK is a team and needs a leader. Leaders are invariably charismatic, enthusiastic, intelligent and personable.

    This slimy scrote exhibits none of those qualities and can only be considered a leader by an equally feckless following.

    Hunt the c*nt is another one, systematically destroying everything he touches, yet he keeps a job.

    TM is another one, more interested in her fashion sense as Home Secretary than her damn country. Whatever happened to those ridiculous outfits and her leather trousers? Not in evidence now.

    The entire country sold down the river by a succession of incompetent no hopers who couldn’t lick Maggie’s shoes.

    I’m beginning to wonder if BoJo isn’t our best bet.

    • John Palmer permalink
      November 26, 2018 9:14 pm

      Sadly…. +10!

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      November 27, 2018 8:51 am

      BoJo the Clown? If that ignorant oaf is our best yet (Unless you mean incompetent no hoper) then we’re royally screwed.

  15. Chilli permalink
    November 26, 2018 9:30 pm

    Gove mentions the new projections being worse than those from 2009. I wonder if the equivalent 2009 document contained any scary projections for 2019 which could usefully be compared to what actually happened? Might be a useful guide to how much credence to give these new projections.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      November 26, 2018 10:07 pm

      Don’t bother, you can’t give any “credence” to these projections at all.

      • Chilli permalink
        November 27, 2018 12:24 am

        Yes. I know. But when someone uses the prestige of government to make alarming predictions about the future it’s useful to puncture that prestige by pointing out the failure of their past predictions. eg. the CBI’s predictions of Brexit doom. Rather than attempting to refute each prediction with facts and figure (an uphill struggle since the CBI’s predictions, though wrong, have the cloak of prestige) it’s much more effective to point out how they’ve been wrong about every single big political issue for the last 40 years (joining the Euro & ERM, non-existent Brexit recession etc etc).

    • John, UK permalink
      November 27, 2018 8:52 am

      GWPF has a post today “Met Office: If At First You Don’t Succeed … Double Down” looking at the Mets previous laughable projections, well worth a read and Tony Heller had a number of graphs slaughtering this nonsense yesterday as well.

  16. M E permalink
    November 26, 2018 10:05 pm

    I detected a fine flavour of Sir Humphrey Appleby. No doubt Mr Gove got the speech written for him, put it in his briefcase and took it out when he had to deliver it.
    The Civil Service are not educated in anything which is practical and rather despise scruffy people who work in laboratories or go out actually measuring things!
    ( A cynical assertion of my own, I admit)

  17. roger permalink
    November 26, 2018 10:32 pm

    And what about the BBC pushing the Met Office latest fantasy of dryer summers and wetter winters culminating in a 4•5°C rise in temperature by 2070?
    Cretins all!

  18. November 26, 2018 10:48 pm

    I read that Gove believes that, should we leave the EU without a deal, we will not be able to treat our water as the chemicals could be withheld by the EU. How sad that he, a promotor of Brexit, has succumbed to such a feeble argument. He appears to be just as feeble about climate issues.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      November 27, 2018 12:12 pm

      Apparently the chemicals are too “unstable” to store, so we cannot stock up on them! It’s all such drivel, does anybody believe any of it unless they are already a Remainer?

  19. J Martin permalink
    November 26, 2018 10:54 pm

    I like the idea of a 4 or 5 degree rise in temperatures.

    What do people like Gove expect to achieve by destroying the economy and making the poor poorer. Do they think that Asia will suddenly think that the UK should be followed on their implosive path ? If polititians are serious about reducung co2, they need to go to China and leave the UK alone.

    • Dave Ward permalink
      November 27, 2018 2:33 pm

      “I like the idea of a 4 or 5 degree rise in temperatures”

      Only during winter, thank you very much! Then I would be able to retire (possibly not the best term) the set of Vredestein Snow tyres and wheels which I will soon be fitting to my car…

  20. Athelstan permalink
    November 26, 2018 10:55 pm

    “I am fortunate as Secretary of State for the Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to work alongside some of the most gifted, dedicated and impressive public servants in the country.”

    No, stop it, stop it right there.

    Everybody and his dog knows full well, it’s no blumin’ secret that DEFRA is full of morons not good enough – even for DWP.

    As to the rest of it, it’s total horse shite.

    • BLACK PEARL permalink
      November 26, 2018 11:49 pm

      When can we get another Cromwell to flush out Parliament and start over ?

      • bobn permalink
        November 27, 2018 12:46 am

        We need someone to succeed where Guy Fawkes failed!

  21. November 27, 2018 1:03 am

    Anyone else spot the masses of pre-PR for Gove ?

    Most of UK journos are really PR people out to plug material that supports their agendas and suppress that material that doesn’t.

    Yorkshire Post pg8 ‘In a speech at the Science Museum Michael Gove will stress”
    The “will” means they are reprting on something BEFORE it happens instead of after
    FFS that’s PR not news !

    Times runs the same Gove preview article
    … turn the page , full page advert for Orsted wind power

    ==============================================

    on Twitter I spotted
    \\ Today, @metoffice & @DefraGovUK are releasing the next generation UK Climate Projections, called #UKCP18.
    These projections describe how different regions of the UK will be affected by climate change. Here is an overview of what will be available: //

    \\ Environment Secretary Michael Gove praised the new study as an “invaluable tool” as it will help with decisions on large infrastructure.
    “It is clear that the planet and its weather patterns are changing before our eyes,” he said, launching the report at the Science Museum in London.
    “We know, more than ever before, the urgency of acting.” //

  22. November 27, 2018 1:29 am

    Paul you’ve seen this from Monday ?
    “The Met Office’s previous climate predictions have been running far too hot.
    The latest ones are even more incredible.”
    https://www.thegwpf.com/if-at-first-you-dont-succeed-double-down/

  23. GEORGE LET permalink
    November 27, 2018 2:27 am

    Thank you again for shining light on the spin, propaganda, group-think.

    • dave permalink
      November 27, 2018 9:20 am

      “…projections…”

      Into my rubbish bin immediately.

      Young Gove has a second class degree in English from Oxford, and is married to an excitable journalist. I would no more listen to such idiots than I would eat chopped liver-pate which has been sweated under a hot lamp for a week.

  24. Pat permalink
    November 27, 2018 9:36 am

    Mr. Gove was parachuted into the environment with no time for personal research. He is therefore dependent on the advice of his civil servants. They will tell him whatever will secure their personal position.
    Unless we abandon the practice of appointing ministers with no independent knowledge of their brief the civil service will continue to rule.

    • Dave Ward permalink
      November 27, 2018 2:37 pm

      “Unless we abandon the practice of appointing ministers with no independent knowledge of their brief the civil service will continue to rule”

      Hence the term (as I noted at JoNova’s the other day)

      “It doesn’t matter who you vote for, the government always gets in”…

  25. Athelstan permalink
    November 27, 2018 9:38 am

    Vatican announcing today that ‘climate change is key challenge of our age’……….

    If one considers all the recent Armageddon climate noize, We had, the US governmental machine were at it on the weekend, defra on Monday, Vatican on Tuesday, when the propaganda machine cranks up, could there be a UN conference in the air – perhaps?

    Same old, same old – shite.

  26. Chilli permalink
    November 27, 2018 11:36 am

    I believe Gove’s idiotic posturing is a direct result of the last GE in which record numbers of young people turned out to vote. Due to green brainwashing in schools, many of these young people rate the non-existent threat of non-existent man-made climate change as their number one issue. Hence the cynical Tory posturing. The Tories are moving to the left across the board with higher taxes, higher spending, record immigration, authoritarian anti-free speech laws, and of course, more ‘green crap’. They think this will win them the next election. It’s more likely to hand the country over to Labour.

    • November 27, 2018 2:47 pm

      … especially when the majority of Tory voters shun them due to the Brexit cock-up.

  27. Phoenix44 permalink
    November 27, 2018 12:09 pm

    All of which are just observations. Where’s the evidence it’s not natural? And of course it’s models.

  28. November 27, 2018 12:48 pm

    “Science is clear that there will be changes in ecosystems caused by the climate.” No kidding, Sherlock, ‘er Mr. Gove..

    I mean, when was the last time you had to shoo dinosaurs out of your garden? Have you seen any woolly mammoths roaming your compost pile this winter?

    His speech is a gaggle of glittering generalities knit together without data to back them up although he throws out this little gem: “Peer-reviewed scientific research states that the rapid warming is substantially due to the methane, nitrous oxide, and fossil fuel emissions we produce.” Hmmmm…..avoided saying CO2 did he not? As to his claim of “peer-reviewed scientific research ” After “Climategate” bestowed upon us by Michael Mann and cohorts from the Motely CRU of UEA, we are aware how much of the peer-review system has been co opted and made useless.

    Almost ALL species, both flora and fauna, are far older than recent glacial episodes. This means that they have survived advancing ice sheets and bitter cold, followed by melting ice sheets and rapidly rising temperatures several times. They are genetically “predispose” and thus can survive them again. Except for Puffins, I guess.

  29. matelot 69 permalink
    November 27, 2018 1:31 pm

    This the same Gove who, in a moment of utter insanity, said that the UK would run out of safe water “within weeks” of a no deal brexit. All the chemicals used are manufactured in the UK. The only one with a “short” shelf life of 3 months, Sodium Hyperchlorite, is manufactured in Scotland, and in the event of shortage can be here in weeks from Canada or the States! As someone else already said, the civil service write this claptrap, and he just puts on blinkers and reads it! Cretin.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      November 27, 2018 1:53 pm

      A more worryingly insane moment came when in a live TV interview during the referendum campaign when Justice Minister – you, know uphold the law and all that – actually advocated breaking the Vienna Convention on treaties to leave the EU instead of following Article 50. Of course our inept legacy media were incapable of calling him out on that.

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