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UKCP18–The Met Office’s New Junk Climate Projections

November 28, 2018

By Paul Homewood

As promised, the low down on the newly published UK Climate Projections 2018 from the Met Office:

image

The UK’s most comprehensive picture yet of how the climate could change over the next century has been launched today by Environment Secretary Michael Gove.

The UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) include:

  • UK’s most comprehensive projections of climate change 
  • Data gives most detailed picture yet of temperature, rainfall and sea level rise over next century
  • Cutting-edge science to help businesses and homes plan for the future

Using the latest science from the Met Office and around the world, the UK Climate Projections 2018 illustrate a range of future climate scenarios until 2100 – showing increasing summer temperatures, more extreme weather and rising sea levels are all on the horizon and urgent international action is needed.

To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The high emission scenario shows:

  • Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer
  • The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050
  • Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100
  • Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter

Sea levels are projected to rise over the 21st century and beyond under all emission scenarios – meaning we can expect to see an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of extreme water levels around the UK coastline. Even in the low emission scenario, the projections show the UK’s average yearly temperature could be up to 2.3 °C higher by the end of the century.

The UK already leads the world in tackling climate change – with emissions reduced by more than 40 % since 1990. However these projections show a future we could face without further action.

UKCP18 can now be used as a tool to guide decision-making and boost resilience – whether that’s through increasing flood defences, designing new infrastructure or adjusting ways of farming for drier summers.

Speaking today from the Science Museum in London, Environment Secretary Michael Gove said: "This cutting-edge science opens our eyes to the extent of the challenge we face, and shows us a future we want to avoid.

“The UK is already a global leader in tackling climate change, cutting emissions by more than 40 % since 1990 – but we must go further.

“By having this detailed picture of our changing climate, we can ensure we have the right infrastructure to cope with weather extremes, homes and businesses can adapt, and we can make decisions for the future accordingly.”

Today’s projections are the first major update of climate projections in nearly 10 years, building on the success of UKCP09 and ensuring the most up-to-date scientific evidence informs decision-making.

With climate change a global challenge, for the first time, UKCP presents international projections, allowing other nations to use this data to gauge future risks for food supply chains, or check rainfall projections for the likelihood of localised flooding.

Defra’s Chief Scientific Adviser Ian Boyd said: “Climate change will affect everybody. UKCP18 is designed to help everybody make better decisions, from those buying a house to people making large investments in infrastructure. It has been produced using state-of-the-art methods.”

Met Office Chief Scientist Stephen Belcher said: “The new science in UKCP18 enables us to move from looking at the trends associated with climate change, to describing how seasonal weather patterns will change. For example, heatwaves like the one we experienced in the summer of 2018 could be normal for the UK by mid-century.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/ukcp18-launch-pr

The projections are very little changed from the 2009 versions, although the forecast ranges seem to be slightly smaller. Indeed, the Met Office actually point out that UKPC18 is broadly consistent with UKPC09.

So let’s look at those four highlighted predictions:

  • Summer temperatures could be up to 5.4 °C hotter by 2070, while winters could be up to 4.2 °C warmer

This prediction bears absolutely no resemblance to what has actually been happening:

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

Average summer temperatures are less than a degree higher than in the 1930s. Moreover they have not increased since 2003.

As for average winter temperatures, they are no higher now than in the 1920s, and have been falling since the 2009 projections were made:

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

There is nothing in the actual data to support either of the Met Office’s projections.

 

 

  • The chance of a summer as hot as 2018 is around 50 % by 2050

Since 1976 there have been four other comparable summers to 2018:

1976

1995

2003

2006

In other words, we have had four in the last 24 years. Since 2006, we have gone twelve summers with only this year standing out.

What connects all of those five summers is “weather”. It is the shape of the jet stream which determines whether we have a hot summer or not. CO2 has nothing to do with it at all.

Unless the Met Office can show that emissions of CO2 bend the jet stream, their prediction is meaningless junk.

  • Sea levels in London could rise by up to 1.15 metres by 2100

This would equate to a rise of 14mm a year from now.

The current rate of rise on the East Coast is 1.54mm a year, based on the last 50 years. This is a slower rate of rise than the overall period since 1895, so sea level rise is not accelerating.

170-053_meantrend

170-053_50yr

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=170-053

Again, the Met Office projection does not reflect reality.

  • Average summer rainfall could decrease by up to 47 % by 2070, while there could be up to 35 % more precipitation in winter

It probably won’t surprise you to learn that, once again, the actual data says that something completely different has been happening:

 image

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/datasets

Summer rainfall has actually been increasing in recent decades, and the average is back to where it was in the 1920s.

Meanwhile, contrary to popular myth, average rainfall in winter has changed little over the period since 1910.

Met Office Fail

What has happened in the past is not necessarily a guide to what will happen in the future,

However, it is surely behoven of the Met Office to explain that their projections have no basis in reality, and to explain why things will suddenly be different in future?

They have of course had nearly a decade since they made similar projections in 2009. So they have had plenty of time to find out that the data so far has not matched those predictions.

Should not that be a warning to them that their computer models might not be all they are cracked up to be?

35 Comments
  1. Mack permalink
    November 28, 2018 11:35 am

    Nicely done Paul. I can see the headlines on the BBC’s 1pm news already, ‘Met Office Claims found to be based on no evidence whatsoever….Again!!!!’ Fat chance.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      November 28, 2018 11:38 am

      It’s turtles models all the way down.

  2. Robert Best permalink
    November 28, 2018 11:52 am

    Hi Paul, Perhaps the projections are based on increases in green house gases rather than actual temperature trends. If green house gases have increased without a corresponding effect on temperature it must be something of a dilemma for the scientists. They should be the first to admit that all of the processes involved are not fully understood. It is those who do not understand how science works, like BBC journalists, who are to blame for all the hype. Climate Change has also become a political football to pander to people who would put science on an altar like it is the new religion. Regards Robert

  3. HotScot permalink
    November 28, 2018 12:01 pm

    To help homes and businesses plan for the future, the results set out a range of possible outcomes over the next century….”

    Since when has any business of any description called for climate predictions 100 years into the future? And been stupid enough to rely on them?

    I suspect we have all pointed out at one time or another that when the MET office can provide reliable five day forecasts for the UK we might then trust them to forecast 10 days into the future, as a pilot scheme.

    Of course we’re met by a barrage of “weather and climate are two different things, we can examine long term trends to predict climate” etc. By that metric, it seems the 50 years or so of inaccurate five day forecasts isn’t enough to predict five days into the future, probably because historic forecasts are so bad. Why should climate predictions into the future be any different?

    If climate forecasts are to be accurate, ‘weather’ must feature, the differences between the two are only time scales and it’s a convenient excuse for either side of the debate to refute inaccurate climate/weather forecasts because “It’s just weather”. Climate is a cumulative effect of weather.

    If an unexpected or unusual weather event pops up somewhere, that’s a consequence of the prevailing global climate of the moment and if precise causes of that can’t be ascertained then weather and climate models are just so much junk guesswork.

    I’ll add that my perception is there is a degree of panic going on somewhere. I can’t recall the BBC hammering previous reports as enthusiastically as this one.

    Is it the Trump effect, or perhaps Brexit blues?

    I’m also concerned about the direction politics is taking. Quite apart from the ‘almost exit Brexit’ with TM manoeuvring to have her dire offer accepted by parliament, and a second referendum, or a no exit deal popping up out the blue we have our EV diktat. Our tax money is being grossly wasted on the CCA and subsidies for renewables/EV’s etc. favouring no one but the wealthy investors and businesses involved. Car manufacturers are being encouraged by governments across Europe to produce vehicles no one particularly wants which are vastly more expensive than conventional ICE vehicles.

    Big business generating vast profits by colluding with governments is a feature of fascism. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but a change in global governance has been vocalised by Christina Figueres amongst others (is a conspiracy theory, a conspiracy theory when the desire for global governance has been expressed many times over?) and the natural conclusion has been socialism. But socialism doesn’t work particularly well with big business whereas fascism does.

    • HotScot permalink
      November 28, 2018 12:02 pm

      Sorry, screwed up the formatting. The first paragraph should be the only one in italics.

    • HotScot permalink
      November 28, 2018 12:30 pm

      Paul,

      you are a gentleman. Thank you.

    • November 28, 2018 1:18 pm

      Self-driving cars are also part of some hidden agenda, apparently we are all clamouring to have them, but I don’t recall being asked. Much of what happens is driven by hidden EU directives, but there are probably higher level globalist forces at work as well. Stand by to be taxed (more).

  4. Terence Wall permalink
    November 28, 2018 12:04 pm

    The possible connection between man’s activities and climate is a debate that is wasting vast amounts of brainpower and time that could be better used to solve the real problems the world faces.

    We know beyond any doubt that our activities are despoiling the planet, contaminating rivers and oceans, land and atmosphere. Those who profit from not trying to stop this pollution have to be made to do so or to pay more to mitigate it. The cost will be borne, at least partially, by us as consumers. So be it, that’s where it belongs.

    We also know that, over considerable periods of time, the climate always changes. The cause is not relevant, other than to focus our attention on the areas most likely to be affected catastrophically. Steps can be taken, or contingency plans created, to reduce the impact of the most severe and most likely of those changes.

    The activists and scientists who are obsessed with the idea that they have to demonstrate (often by carefully selecting statistics that support their hypothesis) that there is an overwhelming connection of cause and effect between man’s productive actions and devastating changes to the climate over decades are wasting their time when they could be doing something useful on either of the above two fronts. Alternatively, and equally important, they could embark on activities designed to restrain out-of-control population growth, primarily in “third world” countries where the number of people alive in future decades is likely to be completely unsustainable.

    So, the message is “man-made climate change is irrelevant”. Those gaining some financial or intellectual satisfaction from incessantly debating the issue should have their energies re-directed more usefully and productively to one of those categories:

    Pollution, Protection, Population.

    Take your pick.

  5. Thomas Carr permalink
    November 28, 2018 12:07 pm

    I was told when at school that the east of England suffers from a progressive geological ‘dip’ as a movement of the earth’s mantle. So called sea level rises recorded on the East Coast may be partly or wholly attributable to this.

    • November 28, 2018 12:31 pm

      That’s right

      There’s a useful map here which shows the effect:

      https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/06/20/uk-sea-level-rise-in-2017/

    • November 28, 2018 1:23 pm

      I tried explaining this to someone recently, in connection with recent coastal flooding on the South coast, all seemed fine, but the parting comment from this person was about … global warming.

    • Jon Scott permalink
      November 29, 2018 11:43 am

      Correct. Called Isostasy as opposed to eustasy. Two terms describing very different processes that the alleged trillion dollar climate industry “scientists” either never learned in 7th grade or wilfully ignore. Which is it? Incompetence or willful deceit? There is no third option.

  6. Bill Scott permalink
    November 28, 2018 12:18 pm

    Seems like the scare season is ramping up and Brexit and Climate are tops. On BBC World the new scare is methane cause when cattle eat their cud. The Beeb scientists promote eating much less beef in order to save the world. Vegans, and their ilk, seem to be very gassy people due to all those beans – just maybe they are the problem.

    • HotScot permalink
      November 28, 2018 12:35 pm

      Bill Scott

      Any animal on the planet that eats nothing but vegetables is simply considered prey for carnivores.

  7. November 28, 2018 1:18 pm

    Notice the language that the Met Office is now using for their predictions. In all cases, temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, it is “COULD BE … UP TO”.

    This is the language usually used by devious companies trying to sell you something – “switch to us and you COULD save UP TO £300 a year”.

    It’s pretty dishonest. Of course they write it this way so that the top figure gets into all the newspaper headlines. Then when, inevitably, this doesn’t happen, they can just say ‘well, we only said it could be up to 5.4C, so 0.3C is perfectly consistent with our prediction’.

    • November 28, 2018 1:30 pm

      Quite possibly its even worse than dishonest, with parameter adjustment to give warming figures deemed acceptable to the politburo, rather like the 2C maximum warming figure being deemed to be a politically acceptable figure.

  8. November 28, 2018 1:38 pm

    This winter in the UK now looks to me like it might be a recent typical one, i.e. mild, wet and windy, now that storms are breaking the long period of Easterly winds that stretched back to the Beast from the East of last winter.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      November 28, 2018 2:26 pm

      Certainly for a couple of weeks the westerly flow that has broken through will persist, but it has before and then the easterly pattern has reasserted – seriously cold air is flooding Siberia/Eurasia and there’s more potential for another Beast than most years.

  9. November 28, 2018 2:25 pm

    There is a noticeable effort to ensure the ‘needs’ of climate forecasting are seen to be a requirement for business and government thus presenting an argument for funding post Brexit when the sensible aproach will be to invest heavily in business and the economy. The niceties of an established economy that can throw available cash at non essential projects will have to wait a decade or so until we can relax the need to focus on the economy with backup funds for unexpected market turns.

    Subsidies for wind and solar farms have already been hit without discord from the tax payer and I would think the next money saver will be non economy boosting shemes such as climate change research which have had funds forced into the area by the EU.

    A hard Brexit is looking more attractive as we go forward, wipe the slate clean, start afresh and get rid of all the quango’s, NGO’s and lets get Whitehall actually doing something usefull for us. Westminster is going to have to have a spring clean next year also, if we the voting public are going to control our own future then those who would rather we didn’t… will have to go.

    Personally, as a company director, I’m excited… very excited… even more so for my elder children and grand children that will benefit the most in the next couple of decades. Now is our time to brush aside all the negativety of being a strong growing society primed to be go getters taking advantage of the world markets and forming new bonds with the many nations out there that know what’s coming when we remove the shackles that have restrained us for so long.

    • HotScot permalink
      November 28, 2018 8:55 pm

      Lord Beaverbrook

      Whilst I share your optimism in a future outside the EU, it seems the inevitable second vote is looming thanks to Theresa May’s collusion and chicanery with the EU.

      If we imagine for a moment TM and her merry band of remainers were dutifully thrashing out the finer details of Brexit with European leaders, we are deluding ourselves. She was safely ensconced in boardrooms with bureaucrats directing operations to deliver the worst deal possible that would send the country back to the polls.

      We note, of course, that two options have been introduced into the Brexit lexicon of options lately, namely, not leaving at all or another referendum.

      I fear the ship HMS Great Britain may be gradually headed for another referendum which will this time steer the populous into voting to remain instead of the ‘binary’ option of ‘in’ or ‘out’.

      In which case, I will be out on the streets.

      • November 29, 2018 8:03 am

        HotScot

        Trust me you will not be alone.

        Spring next year brings the dawn of a new era. Brexit is just the beginning.
        Lots of countries throughout the world are now usurping globalisation by ignoring UN dictat and refusing to bow to the Marxism inherent with IPCC ‘science’.

        Get the sunglasses out, the future is bright, a golden age begins.

  10. Up2snuff permalink
    November 28, 2018 3:35 pm

    If you could offer the population of the whole UK a 50:50 chance of another summer next year – let alone one in 32 years time – they would be delighted.

    • Up2snuff permalink
      November 28, 2018 3:38 pm

      Sack the proof-reader moment. In the absence of an edit facility I present my mea culpa and ask readers to insert the words ‘like that of this year’ after the word ‘year’.

      • Hivemind permalink
        November 28, 2018 10:56 pm

        I think you were right the first time. It is Britain, after all.

  11. Michael Butterley permalink
    November 28, 2018 3:57 pm

    ‘The people of this country have had enough of experts,’ – Michael Gove.

  12. Mike Jackson permalink
    November 28, 2018 4:44 pm

    When is this year’s ‘Conference of the Partygoers’ again? Next week? Week after?

    And in the middle of Poland, no less! In December! Wait for the AlGore effect.

  13. November 28, 2018 5:09 pm

    All this ‘could be’ and ‘up to’ is just airy-fairy nonsense really.

  14. 1saveenergy permalink
    November 28, 2018 7:36 pm

    Hi Paul, good catch,

    “Again, the Met Office projection does not reflect reality.
    It probably won’t surprise you to learn that, once again, the actual data says that something completely different has been happening:”

    Is it possible you could re-do the graphs… but run the empirical trend line out to 2070 to show how far their predictions are out.

    I’m doing a presentation next week & it would be good to show the met office falsehoods.

  15. November 28, 2018 7:51 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  16. November 29, 2018 12:59 am

    Reblogged this on WeatherAction News and commented:
    The green shots of recovery are just around the corner… or the next one… the computer generated GIGO models told me so.

  17. Jack Broughton permalink
    November 29, 2018 5:09 pm

    The GIGO factor in the climate models that is never addressed, probably because it involves some physics and maths, is the Radiative Forcing Factor. This is a man-made physical parameter that can be neither measured nor quantified accurately. As the voluminous IPCC reports show clearly the values were selected by a committee and arbitrary error bands were ascribed to these to make them look more credible. Considering that all of the nonsense from the models start with these, it is amazing that they have not been revealed as the sham that they are.

    When I was young, we occasionally used FFs to make calculations fit the physical model: these were Fiddle Factors ….. what’s new?

  18. Rosco permalink
    November 30, 2018 12:15 am

    The UK Summer mean is 7°C below SE Queensland’s 22°C ANNUAL average and they panic ?

    Perhaps this fact is why there are so many ex-pat British here enjoying the clean water sandy beaches ?

    Clearly they need to do something about months of sunshine and sea breezes.

  19. Jules permalink
    November 30, 2018 4:25 pm

    Working in the Hydrography/Oceanographic field it never ceases to amaze me how sea level is measured to the millimetre resolution.

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