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US National Climate Assessment – Midwest

November 28, 2018

By Paul Homewood

   

Back as promised to the US Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA):

  

image

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html 

 

 

These are some more of the specific claims made in the NCA, and highlighted by CNN:

 

  • Farmers will face extremely tough times. The quality and quantity of their crops will decline across the country due to higher temperatures, drought and flooding. In parts of the Midwest, farms will be able to produce less than 75% of the corn they produce today, and the southern part of the region could lose more than 25% of its soybean yield.

    This is exactly what the NCA has to say, in the Midwest chapter:

    Projections of mid-century yields of commodity crops65 ,66 show declines of 5% to over 25% below extrapolated trends broadly across the region for corn (also known as maize) and more than 25% for soybeans in the southern half of the region, with possible increases in yield in the northern half of the region. Increases in growing-season temperature in the Midwest are projected to be the largest contributing factor to declines in the productivity of U.S. agriculture

     

    However, as even the NCA is forced to admit,  summer temperatures in the Midwest have not been increasing. What they fail to point out is that temperatures have actually been falling instead.

    Even the scorching summer of 2012 was cool in comparison to earlier heatwaves.

    canvas

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/102/tmax/3/8/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

    Most US corn is grown in the Midwest, and nationally, US corn yields have been steadily rising:

    chart

    http://worldofcorn.com/#us-average-corn-yield

    One reason is that the climate is wetter than it used to be prior to 1970:

    canvas

    https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/regional/time-series/102/pcp/12/12/1895-2018?base_prd=true&firstbaseyear=1901&lastbaseyear=2000

    Astonishingly the NCA manages to turn that into a bad thing:

    Increases in warm-season absolute humidity and precipitation have eroded soils, created favorable conditions for pests and pathogens, and degraded the quality of stored grain

    I suggest whoever wrote this drivel went out and talked to a few farmers, and ask them if they would instead like to return to the dustbowl years.

    As the Iowa Corn website notes:

    The United States is the world leader in corn production after growing 15.1 billion bushels in 2017. No state grows more corn than Iowa, producing 2.7 billion of those bushels.

    What makes Iowa such a great place to grow corn? It starts with the soil. Iowa is home to the most fertile topsoil on the planet and that’s not all.

    ..

     

    • Heat stress could cause average dairy production to fall between 0.60% and 1.35% over the next 12 years — having already cost the industry $1.2 billion from heat stress in 2010.

    Claim No2 concerns dairy production.

    But far from declining due to “heat stress”, dairy yields have been rising unabated since the cool decades of the 1960s and 70s:

    chart-2

    http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#compare

       

    •  When it comes to shellfish there will be a $230 million loss by the end of the century due to ocean acidification, which is already killing off shellfish and corals

    Alarmist claims such as this are not supported by the actual data, as supplied by NOAA, which show that shellfish landings have remained stable.

     

    image

    https://www.st.nmfs.noaa.gov/commercial-fisheries/fus/fus15/index

     

     

    • Higher temperatures will also kill more people, the report says. The Midwest alone, which is predicted to have the largest increase in extreme temperature, will see an additional 2,000 premature deaths per year by 2090.

    Yet throughout the Midwest, summer temperatures peaked much higher in the past, and are now not exceptional at all.

    For instance, Algona, IA. The chart below shows the highest temperature recorded each year:

    chart-1

    http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/

     

    The NCA uses a projection of the number of days over 100F in Chicago to “prove its point”:

    Marengo, IL is the nearest small town USHCN site to Chicago, just 43 miles away.

    Temperatures there this summer have got nowhere near 100F. The highest was 91F

    chart-2

     

    The record of 109F was set in 1936, when 11 days exceeded 100F.

    chart-3

    http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/

     

    In contrast,  the most recent day over 100F was in 2012, when a figure of 103F was set.

     

    None of these claims made in the NCA about the Midwest have any basis in reality. Indeed they turn the facts on their head, in order to concoct a story that fits a pre-ordained agenda.

    22 Comments
    1. Joe Public permalink
      November 28, 2018 5:36 pm

      Kids will grow up paranoid that weather will kill them.

    2. cajwbroomhill permalink
      November 28, 2018 5:42 pm

      What motivates the alarmists?

      • Broadlands permalink
        November 28, 2018 6:59 pm

        Al Gore can tell you. He’s made a fortune peddling this stuff. So have numerous politicians.

      • Jon Scott permalink
        November 29, 2018 8:23 am

        cajwbroomhill PERMALINK
        November 28, 2018 5:42 pm
        What motivates the alarmists?

        Money and after money the mindless need to belong to the “winning side”…. Lord of the Flies mentality if you like and in such a guise people can perform the most inhuman of acts and sleep perfectly well at night. I call it cowardice myself.

      • Europeanonion permalink
        November 29, 2018 8:37 am

        You would have to be Messianic to understand. Politics is 99 percent future casting. The here and now is far too difficult for you to have any effect on it but when you can talk about a date when anyone alive today will be either dead or in their dotage suddenly your influence is mighty and, as we see in the narrative here, irrefutable. Suddenly you are a visionary and your farsightedness gives you the power to look busy and decisive, your love and understanding knows no bounds.

        No one ever lost votes through loving the planet. You are offered a choice, unscrupulous as it is. Do you want to prosper now or do you want to live later? Once that message has been contrived then anything that uses resources or favours industrious people is going to the crapper. We were scared of David Koresh and his handle on religious observance but between that form of control, the talk of undeniable unravelling, and Al Gore…what’s the difference?

    3. John F. Hultquist permalink
      November 28, 2018 7:20 pm

      Reminds me of the parable of blind men and elephant.

      It is reported as a Trump Administration effort. It is not.
      This effort began just after James Hansen’s report (June 1988). While Reagan was Pres and made the first initiative, Bush Sr. was Pres when the effort was officially presented to Congress by Fritz Hollings, Democrat Senator of South Carolina and passed with 55 Dems and 45 Reps (= 100%).

      I commented at WUWT:
      This is not a report from the “Trump” Administration.
      Sarah Huckabee Sanders should make a strong statement regarding this stinky dead carp.
      I don’t know if ‘The Donald’ could or should shut this foolishness down. Even if he wanted to, why do so?
      The squawk from the cAGW cult would be like shock and awe — silence scientists (although most are not), freedom of speech being stomped, other similar stuff. Who wants that? Let them bloviate. Then poke them with a sharp stick.

      • Curious George permalink
        November 28, 2018 7:27 pm

        The “Deep State” really exists. So does The Swamp.

      • November 28, 2018 10:24 pm

        Suppressing this tripe would only generate victim-type publicity for its perpetrators. Less bother to let the people decide whether they buy it or not.

      • November 29, 2018 1:08 pm

        Well stated.

    4. Max Sawyer permalink
      November 28, 2018 8:03 pm

      Come on now – challenging the holy writ of climate change with facts. It just isn’t done.

    5. Bitter&twisted permalink
      November 28, 2018 9:05 pm

      The climate fraudsters are worried that President Trump has rumbled them.
      So they are directing yet more propaganda at the masses.
      Helped by a Biased and incompetent press.

      • November 28, 2018 10:26 pm

        All he has to do, and is doing, is let them make prats of themselves and just say ‘I don’t believe it’.

      • Hivemind permalink
        November 28, 2018 10:49 pm

        Helped by a Biased and very skillful press.

    6. Broadlands permalink
      November 28, 2018 10:30 pm

      In the end it doesn’t matter because there is nothing that can be done to change the climate. Further “hand-wringing” and blame finger-pointing adds renewable biofuels to the FIRE being yelled out in the global theater. That ensures more funding to study the problem and hold yet another climate conference. Facts can easily be made up. There are plenty already.

    7. Athelstan permalink
      November 29, 2018 12:31 am

      If you think this recent screaming chicken little stuff is bad, just wait until the Katowice shindig gets going, soros global forum-antifa and all the EU cultural Marxist claque will be feeding the press two weeks of unmitigated climate disastermongering.

      We’re doomed, that’s all you need to know and also that, you will be made to pay for the perceived sins of your fathers, no ifs nor buts, so say the UN and george soros.

      • November 29, 2018 10:32 am

        Let the nutters make an exhibition of themselves, so people can see what they’re really like.

        • Athelstan permalink
          November 29, 2018 11:39 am

          Oh they will and damn themselves through verbal and written confirmation, on climastrology its computer modelled cow doings – peer reviewed and all.

    8. November 29, 2018 1:23 pm

      I have observed, especially since the 2016 election, that those of leftward bent “thrive” on being unhappy. It is their raison d’etre if you will. They mire themselves in anything negative and promote it even though it is they themselves and their children who will suffer the consequences of what they espouse.

      A “friend” of 50 years, has called me every name in the book by proxy (what she “likes” on FB knowing I will see it). Occasionally, I point out the fallacy of the posting. She has lamented the hunting in Africa, the state of teachers (she is a retired one), that the government is using HER social security in the general funds (never mind that it was HER Democrats who did that), etc. Her latest kick is that we are immigrants unless we were here prior to 1492. I mentioned that the earliest might have been the Solutreans from Europe who gave us the “Clovis points” during the last glacial episode. I pointed out the definition of an “immigrant” referred to one entering a “country” and there wasn’t one. So she now likes a posting by a left-wing India Hindu woman who gives the “real history” of us and the American Indians. That was as correct as the global warming nonsense.

      My point is that when their ideas and policies are rejected as they were soundly in 2016, they then turn to any other negative venue handy and jump on that wagon. They continuously throw out things to scare us in hopes of winning, but they actually believe their own bilge and end up depressing themselves even further in a hopeless circle.

      I choose not to join them.

    9. RAH permalink
      November 30, 2018 5:14 am

      Though I abhor the oxygen thieves that produce and hype this kind of stuff, I have to say that there is a negative effect on corn yields from unusually warm low temperatures during the growing season. I live in the corn belt in central Indiana and listen to the farm reports and those from state agencies. Though we have had great years lately, and this year was also great, it could have been better. When it does not cool off enough at night it slows respiration and thus slows root growth which negatively effects yields. We had a lot of unusually warm nights due to increased water vapor this year right in the heart of the growing season.

    10. Jack Broughton permalink
      November 30, 2018 10:29 am

      The approach to climate seems to be, forget all historical trends and facts and rely on the models. This would not be so bad if the models were proven and accurate: they are neither.

      The extent that these organisations rely on untestable, very limited mathematical models of a complex system is beyond any sense.

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