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IEA Energy Projections

December 3, 2018

By Paul Homewood


h/t Robin Guenier





The IEA has published its latest World Energy Outlook, with projections up to 2040.

Here are the main highlights:


There are two main scenarios, but in my view the second is merely wishful thinking. Even the first assumes the implementation of new measures in line with, for instance, pledges at Paris, itself highly optimistic.




First, we have total primary energy demand. [The IEA have interactive versions of each graph, so it is worth following the link to play with].

All graphs that follow are for the New Policies Scenario.





I have prepared my own graph for better clarity:




As we can see, oil and gas rise sharply, while coal consumption remains flat. Although other renewables (essentially wind and solar) increase sixfold, by 2040 they still only supply 7% of global energy.

Hydro increases slightly, but there is recognition that its role is extremely limited. Similarly, the report accepts concerns about the sustainability of biofuels, which can compete with food production and actually increase CO2 emissions via land clearance.

Fossil fuels are still expected to account for 74% of global energy by 2040, from the 2015 level of 81%. Despite the fall in share, fossil fuel consumption rises by 2035 Mtoe, greater than the increase of 1748 Mtoe in total renewables (ie incl bio and hydro.

As a result, CO2 emissions will carry on growing, from 32080 Mt in 2015, to 35881 Mt in 2040. Indeed they are still growing even at the end of the period.


ScreenHunter_3337 Dec. 03 12.21


I will leave with one final thought.

In 2008, when the UK Climate Change Act was passed, global emissions were 29080 Mt.

The Climate Change Act had two key aims:



The second aim has clearly failed, and as the justification for the Act is no longer viable, the Act itself should now be abolished.

  1. December 3, 2018 12:57 pm

    coal consumption remains flat

    China, India and numerous other countries will be surprised to hear their coal expansion plans have apparently been cancelled.

    • Gerry, England permalink
      December 3, 2018 1:48 pm

      They could be using the coal morons like the UK and Australia have given up but I suspect that won’t be enough.

      • dave permalink
        December 3, 2018 2:52 pm

        November 2018 was another month without a sign of global run-away brightness-temperature anomalies: according to UAH, + 0.28 C versus +0.22 C in October.

  2. December 3, 2018 4:22 pm

    We’re all doomed.

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