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Eli Rabett Makes Fool Of Himself

January 14, 2019

By Paul Homewood


It did not take long for alarmist trolls to react to my hurricane paper.

If Mr Rabett had bothered to read the rest of the Arizona Education factsheet, which he quoted from, he would have found this statement:

Increasing Atlantic Hurricanes since 1851?

What about the trend line in figure 9 above, which indicates that the number of reported Atlantic hurricanes has been increasing at a rate of 1.3 hurricanes per decade? Some have used figures like this to conclude that climate change has caused increasing numbers of Atlantic hurricanes. In reality, the trend can be largely explained by changes in the way we observe hurricanes, rather than a real trend of increasing hurricanes since the 1800s. Long ago, when populations were smaller and there were fewer people making observations, there were undoubtedly storms that were simply missed and not counted. In recent decades, no storm will be missed. Thus, scientists and statisticians need to make adjustments for storms that were completely missed. Another factor is that there has been a large increase in the number of short duration storms in recent decades, where a short duration storm is one that lasts two days or less. Since the beginning of the satellite era, we have significantly improved our observations of hurricanes from space. Short duration storms that went undetected (and uncounted) in the past are more easily detected and counted today. The figure below indicates the increase in short duration Atlantic storms, which is responsible for much of the trend shown in figure 9. The figure below also shows that there has been no significant change in moderate duration storms from 1880 to 2010 after accounting for the long ago missed storms. These results show that the increase in Atlantic storms in figure 9 is an artifact of the way we have observed storms, rather than a real climate change toward more Atlantic hurricanes.



Nowadays all Atlantic storms are constantly monitored by satellite, and hurricane hunter aircraft where appropriate. I wonder how he thinks we used to do it in 1851?

That is why NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division states that reliable Atlantic data only starts in 1966:



Eli Rabett is really Dr Joshua Halpern, who prefers to hide behind a pseudonym, and likes to think he is smarter than the rest of us. If this is the best he can do, he really must try harder in future.

  1. A C Osborn permalink
    January 14, 2019 12:04 pm

    The Classic Cherry Picking Failure.
    Nice one Paul.

  2. Bloke down the pub permalink
    January 14, 2019 12:10 pm

    In the days of sail, it’s likely that if the storm was powerful enough, the ship wouldn’t have survived to make a report.

    • Mack KDE permalink
      January 14, 2019 1:40 pm

      MV Derbyshire 1980 lost with all hands and 2 of their wives .RIP

      • Adam Gallon permalink
        January 14, 2019 6:47 pm

        Rogue wave.

  3. Jules permalink
    January 14, 2019 12:25 pm

    Excellent stuff Paul, they dont like it up em.

  4. Ajax Ornis permalink
    January 14, 2019 12:25 pm

    If that is really Halpern’s best effort,surely it is time for him to choose a different subject, more suited to his talents.

    • Bitter@twisted permalink
      January 14, 2019 5:22 pm

      Which are?
      Astrology and burger-flicking.

  5. Mack KDE permalink
    January 14, 2019 1:37 pm

    While bringing an old tanker to Honkers in 1967 we ran into a cyclone unannounced and unreported other than by other ships nearby. Flooded the tanks and pretended we were a submarine and that saved us from being tossed about unlike a USN destroyer running out of it .They were coming half out of the sea and crashing back in, bet the Engineers had some job trying to keep the prop from spinning off. Adventurous days indeed

  6. Gerry, England permalink
    January 14, 2019 1:51 pm

    You should know by now, Paul, that you are only going to upset them if they use something they don’t understand – like facts.

  7. January 14, 2019 2:21 pm

    Graduated degree in 1966, now listed as emeritus (retired) on Howard’s website
    About me page from 2010

  8. January 14, 2019 4:14 pm

    I’ve had a few “discussions” with him over the years. Bright fellow, but his views on so-called climate change allow him to deviate from facts until caught.

  9. Athelstan permalink
    January 14, 2019 6:30 pm

    He really should know better Paul before he takes on the truth tellers but then again – they don’t – know any better, do they?

    Paint another 1 on the fighter jet cone Paul and have a victory roll too!

  10. John F. Hultquist permalink
    January 14, 2019 6:56 pm

    Where did the name “Eli Rabett” come from?

    I see this and think of Eddie Rabbit — {from a wiki page} —

    Edward Thomas Rabbitt (November 27, 1941 – May 7, 1998) was an American singer and songwriter. His career began as a songwriter in the late 1960s, springboarding to a recording career after composing hits such as “Kentucky Rain” for Elvis Presley…

  11. January 14, 2019 7:22 pm

    They’re not sending their best, are they?

  12. January 15, 2019 2:07 am

    The other issue is that in theory the effect of agw on tropical cyclones is found only in global averages across all six basins and not in any single basin. Therefore the relevant empirical test must be a test of the global mean and not of an arbitrarily selected basin. Please see:

  13. Gamecock permalink
    January 15, 2019 2:33 pm

    ‘These results show that the increase in Atlantic storms in figure 9 is an artifact of the way we have observed storms, rather than a real climate change toward more Atlantic hurricanes.’

    What definition of ‘climate change’ is in use here? Ups and downs in Atlantic hurricanes is not climate change under any recognized definition of climate.

    Indeed, ‘climate change’ is just a slogan, devoid of meaning.

  14. Ian Terry permalink
    January 16, 2019 11:14 am

    This doctor is like so many throwing in their four penneth on a regular basis. We had a saying for it years ago: “urinating before they have their flies open” no engage eyes and brain before opening mouth.

  15. Ewing Caldwell permalink
    January 20, 2019 1:42 am

    The papers:
    Paul Prikryl, LidiaNikitinab VojtoRušinc: Rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the context of the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere coupling, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics.2018
    Prikryl et al, Tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind through atmospheric vertical coupling downward control . Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 2017

    are just two in an increasing number of papers in the scientific literature (peer reviewed and published) mapping the sun/tropical-cyclone/typhoon/hurricane relationship. CO2 and any of man’s other emissions feature not at all. The sun, rather the Wind from the Sun; the Solar Wind, is being fingered as the guilty party wholly responsible for not only the occurrence of such weather but also its strength.

    At this rate, forecasting and tracking will become ever more accurate.
    In the mean time, rest assured the Oil Companies are truly blameless.

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