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Booker Looks At That “Hottest Winter Day”

March 3, 2019

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Booker on those “hottest winter day” claims:

 

 Christopher Booker

Woolly-headed weather 

Inevitably last Monday and Tuesday, the Met Office and the BBC rushed to publicise temperatures of over 70F (20C) as the highest ever recorded in any British winter, with the BBC quoting green zealots claiming that this was proof of  global warming.

Tom Burke, a former director of Friends of the Earth but now described as running an “independent climate change think tank”, pointed out that this was twice the normal temperature for this time of year, asking us to imagine what it will be like when summer temperatures similarly reach twice their normal level. But equally inevitably this prompted Paul Homewood, on his Notalotofpeopleknowthat blog, to examine the Met Office’s own records to put these February temperatures into historical perspective.

For a start he found that, if this year set a daily record for February, caused by a high pressure cell sucking in hot air from the Sahara, record days for the other two winter months, January and December, date back to 1958 and 1948. Record temperatures for other months include the hottest ever May day in 1922 and September’s in 1906. But Homewood then focused on the “mean temperature” for February as a whole. Despite its unusual warmth, he found the Met Office’s own figure to show this to have been only 44F (6.7C), making a nonsense of idle media claims that this had been “the hottest winter ever”.

A chart meticulously plotted by Homewood from the Met Office’s Central England Temperature record dating back to 1659 shows that February 2019 ranked as only 15th among our warmest Februarys, way behind the hottest ever in 1779, while this was only the 17th warmest winter as a whole. What the graph shows is how astonishingly consistent overall  our Februarys have remained over the past 360 years. As for that absurd comment by Mr Burke, it appears to have disappeared from the BBC website.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/03/knew-brexit-would-shambles-never-could-have-predicted-mess/

My relevant post is here.

24 Comments
  1. Pat permalink
    March 3, 2019 11:28 am

    Also it is misleading to describe 16 degrees as twice as hot as 8 degrees, unless you are using degrees Kelvin. 0 degrees is not absolute zero.

    • It doesn't add up... permalink
      March 3, 2019 1:12 pm

      Well quite. I assumed for a moment he was having a Venusian fantasy about temperatures if 600 Kelvin. Then I realised it would have boiled his brain, which probably explains the claim.

  2. quaesoveritas permalink
    March 3, 2019 11:29 am

    Booker seems to have missed the obvious error in the phrase, “twice the normal temperature”.
    Maybe it would be better if the MO quoted all temperatures in degrees kelvin in future.

  3. A C Osborn permalink
    March 3, 2019 11:35 am

    Good short roundup of the situation from Mr Booker and more kudos to Paul.
    Paul, I nkow the second day was at Kew where there must be UHI, but what about the first day?
    Was it even a weather station?

  4. Athelstan. permalink
    March 3, 2019 11:43 am

    Hottest evah is global warming. Coolest evah is global warming.

    whotevah.

    The Sun heats the earth, irradiation back and forth and out, the ocean’s and winds, pressure gradients/ corriolis force cool it, the weather is unpredictable – thank goodness, if you want blanket heat get yourself to somewhere hot and wet.

    Meanwhile, the earth’s climate average is about moderately non descript – and that, surely makes me very happy.

    • quaesoveritas permalink
      March 3, 2019 11:49 am

      I think it would be interesting to ask alarmists, what sort of weather would not be consistent with “climate change”.
      An absolutely “normal” month or year I suppose, but actually that would be very unusual.
      I defy anyone to find a “normal” year in the meteorological records.

      • Joseph Sharp permalink
        March 3, 2019 4:32 pm

        Quite often I have heard weather forecasters say such things as: “It’s warmer than it should be at this time of year.” Why “should be”. Do they mean it shouldn’t be warmer than average? As the good book has it: “The wind bloweth where it listeth.”

  5. March 3, 2019 12:22 pm

    A proper scientific analysis would look at temperatures in North Africa, since that is where the hot dry air came from. It may be the case that the Sahara is now a bigger/hotter desert than it was a hundred years ago, hence better winter heatwaves in the UK, whenever a blocking high sits in the right position for bring air from the South.

    We know that the Sahara influences the UK, from the dust that arrives from time to time, settling on cars.

    An amusing fake correlation/causation link can be found on the internet. Apparently there is a correlation between periods of grass in the Sahara and the presence of humans and goats. Any normal person would conclude that the goats and humans arrive whenever there is enough grass, but in the woke green mind of environmentalists it must have been the goats that ate all the grass, creating a desert. That is beyond ridicule, but ridicule doesn’t work in the modern world of environmental activism.

  6. March 3, 2019 3:16 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  7. March 3, 2019 3:25 pm

    QV asked
    \\ Stew, I noticed that you “liked” one of my posts here.
    How do you do that?//
    The trick is to open a https://wordpress.com account and then click the READER button and read blogs thru that
    #1 It sumarises all new blogposts on one page
    #2 It gives you the ability to click LIKE on comments if that blog is also done on WordPress

  8. Ulric Lyons permalink
    March 3, 2019 6:01 pm

    CET daily records equaled for one day.

    Warm spells get amplified by air pollution, as with the very warm Easter of April 2011, and the summer heatwave of 1783 when the UK was engulfed in fumes and ash clouds from the Laki eruption. Also the forest fire smoke in the Moscow summer heatwave of 2010.

    https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/warning-being-outdoors-today-air-15894276

  9. BLACK PEARL permalink
    March 3, 2019 6:34 pm

    If not for Paul who else would be providing these undisputed detailed facts and public awareness.
    In a class of his own. 🙂
    Well done keep it coming .. much appreciated by all

  10. March 3, 2019 10:36 pm

    It was snowing in many parts of Greece in mid-February, including Crete.

    https://greece.greekreporter.com/2019/02/13/blanket-of-snow-covers-many-parts-of-greece/

    One-eyed warmists don’t want to talk about that.

    • A C Osborn permalink
      March 4, 2019 11:56 am

      They do not want to talk about the Record Breaking Cold & Snow in the US either.

  11. Derek Colman permalink
    March 3, 2019 11:39 pm

    The Met Office just made a big play about the highest temperature, but most of us did not experience 21.6°. On the relevant day I recorded 18°. Kew Gardens seems to be the main culprit, but isn’t that full of greenhouses trapping heat, then letting some out through temperature controlled vents into the surrounding area? In fact many of these claimed hottest temperatures can be traced to compromised weather stations like the one at Heathrow.

    • dave permalink
      March 4, 2019 8:31 am

      RSS agrees with UAH, in its analysis of the satellite measurements and their anomalies for February – a miniscule reduction from January.

      Meanwhile, the visible Sun continues to be spotless.

      Watching for calamity and catastrophe in such a stable world is extremely boring but the self-appointed watchers do not seem to find it so.

  12. March 4, 2019 9:08 am

    Nothing unusual in February 2019 in the CET record.

    frayedendsblog.wordpress.com/2019/03/03/some-observations-on-maximum-temperatures-during-february-2019-recorded-in-the-uks-cet-database/

  13. quaesoveritas permalink
    March 4, 2019 9:19 am

    I emailed Tom Burke on the subject of his “twice the normal temperature” quote and received the following reply:

    “We do not normally conduct public conversations in Britain about temperature in degrees Kelvin but in degrees Celsius. In the metric conventionally used in weather forecasts temperatures are expressed in degrees Celsius, except in the United States. In degrees Celsius, 20 is twice 10, so I stand by my statement that we were experiencing a temperature that was ‘twice what it would normally be’. I did not say that it was twice as hot as it would normally be which is what you seem to think I said.”

    • dave permalink
      March 4, 2019 1:04 pm

      So if the normal temperature was 1 degree Celsius we would have been experiencing a temperature that was TWENTY times what it would normally be? And what if the normal temperature was minus 1 Celsius what then would be the multiplication? Burke by name…

      Of course, we know the game…the junior priests in any religion are always a laughing stock even to the senior priests.

      • dave permalink
        March 4, 2019 1:28 pm

        Actually, this is a verbal equivalent of the hoary, old “How to lie with charts in advertising – trick one.” That is when you show a chart so that the whole picture is taken up with just the top bit, and the origin is unseen and far below.

  14. keith permalink
    March 4, 2019 10:05 am

    BBC were still carrying on with their lies in Countryfile last night saying February had its hottest days on record.

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