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Shock News–It Gets Hot In France During The Summer!

June 25, 2019

By Paul Homewood

 

The Telegraph seem surprised that it is hot in summer!

 image

France has taken the rare step of postponing end-of-secondary-school exams after this week’s heatwave – forecast to be the hottest on record for a month of June.

With temperatures due to climb to 40 degrees Celsius (104°F)  and humidity levels making the heat feel closer to 47C, Le Brevet, a national diploma taken by 14-year-olds, will take place next week instead of this Thursday and Friday.

Jean-Michel Blanquer, the education minister, said the decision was taken to "guarantee the security of the pupils”. The timetable of the exams would otherwise remain unchanged, he added.

More than half of France has been placed under “orange alert” by Meteo France, the national weather forecaster.

Temperatures were already rising on Tuesday with 34C expected in Paris and 41C in Clermont-Ferrand and Lyon, but they are due to climb even higher on Thursday and Friday, reaching at least 37C in the French capital….

Climate data suggests heat waves in Europe are becoming more frequent, say scientists.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said "monthly heat records all over the globe occur five times as often today as they would in a stable climate".

"This increase in heat extremes is just as predicted by climate science as a consequence of global warming caused by the increasing greenhouse gases from burning coal, oil and gas," he told AP.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/06/25/france-postpones-national-diploma-exams-concerns-pupils-could/ 

Note the fraudulent reference to humidity levels making the heat feel closer to 47C.

The forecast for Paris is for temperatures of 37C, but this is well below the all time record of 40.4C, set in 1948.

In the country as a whole, the record of 44C set as long ago as 1923 in Toulouse, and matched in 2003, is unlikely to be threatened.

But what about Rahmstorf’s about heat waves becoming more frequent?

Nantes has one of the longest running temperature datasets in France (and the longest on GISS).

While average summer temperatures are generally higher than they were a century ago, it is not evident that summers are actually peaking higher.

The hottest summer was in fact in 1976. Although last summer was one of the warmest on record, it was no hotter than in 1911.

 image

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show_v3.cgi?id=615072220000&ds=5&dt=1 

As for daily highs, they are clearly not rising at the top end of the scale.

xgdcnFRM00007222

https://climexp.knmi.nl/gdcntmax.cgi?id=someone@somewhere&WMO=FRM00007222&STATION=NANTES-BOUGUENAIS&extraargs=

And there is one more factor to consider. Nantes temperature station is based at the Bouguenais Airport there, close to the runway and airport buildings and car parks.

image

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/homr/#ncdcstnid=30096100&tab=LOCATIONS

All of the temperatures reported during this heatwave will either be in the middle of city centres or at airports.

Despite that there is no evidence that this week’s weather will be in any way unprecedented or unusual.

 

UPDATE

I’ve added the daily minimum data from KNMI for Nantes, and also the monthly mean stuff.

The relative absence of really cold nights in recent years is apparent in the daily data, but there appears to be little in the way of trends at the other end of the scale.

We find a similar picture with monthly means.

ngdcnFRM00007222

ta7222

39 Comments
  1. Curious George permalink
    June 25, 2019 3:21 pm

    Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research said “monthly heat records all over the globe occur five times as often today as they would in a stable climate”.

    Has there been a period of “stable climate”, ever? His opinion of my IQ is very low. I reciprocate.

  2. Broadlands permalink
    June 25, 2019 3:29 pm

    The Europeans do not seem to recall what happened in July of 1921…almost a century ago.

    FRANCE: Paris July 12. “The Senate yesterday… cancelled the usual July 14 military review in Longchamps owing to the extreme heat.”

    ITALY: July 30. “The principal phenomenon…was the intensely hot weather. An unprecedented heat wave continued to develop in its intensity of heat and in its length and duration.”

    RUSSIA: July 17. “Twenty million persons are on the verge of starvation in drought-stricken sections of Russia. The parched earth…is opening up great crevices, and wells and rivers are drying up.”

    CO2 less than 300 ppm?

  3. Joe Public permalink
    June 25, 2019 3:34 pm

    “And there is one more factor to consider. Nantes temperature station is based at the Bouguenais Airport there, close to the runway and airport buildings and car parks.”

    No doubt there’ll be a prize to the first NaLoPKT reader to spot the excuse:

    “Les turbulences générées par les avions qui passent permettraient de mélanger l’air près du sol et ont donc plus de chances de faire baisser la température de l’air que de l’augmenter.”
    ©Met_Office_Blo_2015

    • Duker permalink
      June 27, 2019 12:39 am

      Notice they refer to ‘aircraft movements’ , a straw man ,as its the huge amounts of concrete and tar seal that create a hot layer close to the ground. Also to consider is that aircraft move around airports almost entirely, but not always, by the thrust from their jet engines on ‘taxi thrust’, which can vary . Some larger twins , idle thrust is too much, 4 engine planes take more thrust on say 2 engines.

  4. JimW permalink
    June 25, 2019 4:14 pm

    Here in Tarn, near Toulouse, we are welcoming a bit of heat after weeks of rain and coldish weather. The farmers were worried that it would be the same as last year with the crop at this time of year very poor. But now the crops are growing and getting ready for this season’s harvest. The soil and general wather conditions mean its quite common to have 3 growing seasons in a year normally.
    The French authorities are goinmg to make all their children ‘weaklings’ with their constant pampering. Also the kids will not appreciate ‘peaking’ their revision for this week, only for the tests to be postponed until next week, very frustrating I would imagine.

  5. June 25, 2019 4:25 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.

  6. HotScot permalink
    June 25, 2019 4:30 pm

    Snowflakes melt in the heat. Who knew?

    • Gerry, England permalink
      June 26, 2019 1:51 pm

      If only they would…..

  7. John F. Hultquist permalink
    June 25, 2019 4:48 pm

    end-of-secondary-school exams

    will take place next week

    How many families have plans for “end of . . .”?
    Will airlines refund unused tickets, purchased 4 months ago?
    Consequences?!

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      June 25, 2019 7:29 pm

      French school holidays this year start on July 6 which gives the authorities the — in my view very sensible — option of delaying Le Brevet. The official schedule is Thursday and Friday which Méteo France are currently forecasting as being three to four degrees hotter than today. Expecting 14-year-olds to perform at their best in temps in the upper 30s and high humidity is not reasonable. It’s good to see the French Education minister prepared to acknowledge this. I doubt if the current English incumbent would be as switched on!

      This is unusual for June. We are in south-east Burgundy and our maximum for today at 34.6° equals the highest June figure in the 10 years we’ve been here. If Méteo forecasts are correct we will probably touch close to 40° which for us would be a record for the whole summer. June records have been falling in several places across most of France and more will go before the weekend.

      Yes, it is only weather but that doesn’t mean it isn’t freakish or potentially harmful.

      “While the hottest recorded temperature reached 40.4°C (104.7°F) on 28 July 1948, the deadly heatwave of August 2003 produced nine (9) consecutive days of temperatures exceeding 35°C (95°F). These temperatures are quite exceptional, however.”

  8. Saighdear permalink
    June 25, 2019 4:50 pm

    Fact of the mater is: No one was around to record mentally that fact that it was so hot here in 19Twenty-Oatcake. and as for late in ( Most) of our Lifetimes, we weren’t so bothered about the weather to take it in and record it Mentally: Unless you were directly involved in the effects of that paricular Spell of weather, and just worked indoors, etc how would / could youu possibly understand the effects of weather. the MSM has a lot to answer for in their ( Often fake? news) reporting of weather effects.
    ANd the Bairns of today as the bairnies of yesterday do not find it cool to talk scientifically or otherwise about the weather – it’s an Old man’s thing!

  9. Ben Vorlich permalink
    June 25, 2019 4:55 pm

    Until this heatwave arrived on Sunday the year so far had been cold, dull and miserable. There are still waterlogged areas in some fields. A couple of days ago the forecast was for up to 49’C in Paris and mid 40s elsewhere. These failed to materialise and Current forecasts are lower than that. However it’s the 40 that will remain in the memory. The panic is now about pollution.

  10. Malcolm Bell permalink
    June 25, 2019 5:15 pm

    Yes, it all seems pretty normal Paul. But you haven’t mentioned the Arctic recently but the “enthusiasts” have got very excited about claiming record melt. Do you have any facts please.

    • MrGrimNasty permalink
      June 25, 2019 5:42 pm

      Greenland had a short spike in melt owing to some warm weather which was at the limit of what has been recorded in recent times, but the weather actually flipped to mass gain again!

      The Arctic sea ice situation is the same as it has been for the last few years, no surprises.

      You can see all this on the DMI site.

      The French record for June is 43C, if the BBC forecasts are right that might fall but they are doing the usual pre-announcement trick, so regardless, people will be left with the impression of record heat.

      And records WILL be declared – there is always some combination of criteria that can be declared a record.

      Remember the Tokyo heatwave last year ‘smashed’ the record by 0.1C!!!!!

    • June 25, 2019 7:28 pm

      Above the levels of the last four years!

      http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

  11. Ivan permalink
    June 25, 2019 6:30 pm

    If you look at Maximiliano Herrero’s website of extreme temperature records from weather stations around the world – and he is the leading statistician of these things – it an easy spot that new high extreme temperature records are consistently outnumbering new low extreme temperature records by a large factor, it has been over 10 in recent years.

    • Adam Gallon permalink
      June 25, 2019 7:33 pm

      No surprise there, the climate’s warming & has been since the end of the Little Ice Age.

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      June 25, 2019 7:35 pm

      Extreme? And is it any surprise given where weather stations are sited that they are getting “warmer”? This is the point, are even seeing actual records or just UHI or other effects?

    • June 25, 2019 7:36 pm

      In the US, the number of hot records (incl ties) has actually been going down. But what has happened is that cold records have been going down faster.

      Put simply, temperatures are now much less extreme than they used to be.

      See my analysis here:

      https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/03/23/borenstein-tries-the-daily-records-con/

      The same is true here. I have often analysed daily temperatures on CET, and regularly find that the really cold days are becoming much less common, but there is no real evidence that hot days are becoming more common or hotter.

      Remember as well that what is called “extreme temperature” may often be a mild day in winter, and not extreme at all

    • June 26, 2019 1:40 am

      Well of course that is going to happen when the temperatures are mostly measured in the middle of rapidly developing cities and airports!

      And I guess you could even say it is a valid measurement of the climate changes within those towns and airports. Those changes are also man-made as all the new buildings and pavements that caused them are man-made.

      Those broken records merely indicate the rate of concrete-jungle development at each town or airfield.

      But they are not a valid measurement of fossil-fuel-driven global warming.

    • COLIN MACDONALD permalink
      June 26, 2019 10:34 am

      There are 50 US states and 24 of them of them record highs recorded earlier than record lows. Not much suggestion of a trend there, admittedly its only 50 data points but these temps don’t get homogenised or adjusted. I’ve sometimes commented along these lines on warmist websites, and usually receive the rebuff “it’s only weather!”; this after an article saying that the hottest March day on record in Western Australia (or something) is proof of accelerating global warming
      In fact looking back over the numbers it becomes evident that the 1930’s were by far the hottest in the US as far as extreme heat goes. We may get similar outliers this year in Europe, however if we’re going to employ the coming heatwave to support AGW you have to ask what the criteria is for disregarding the more extreme heat of the 1930’s US.

      • Broadlands permalink
        June 27, 2019 2:05 pm

        Colin… Check the NCDC website “Climate at a Glance” and you will find that 1921 was one of the warmest years. Until NCDC lowered some values there were 10 states that had record high temperatures. Several of them still do. Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia, Mississippi, Louisiana. There were also 10 other contiguous states in 1934, but they were on the Western side of the US. It is interesting that 1921 followed by only four years the coldest year on record…which still stands in most US states.

  12. June 25, 2019 6:32 pm

    Climate alarmists have gone mad; I’ve never seen so much fuss made about a ‘record-breaking’ heatwave which hasn’t even happened!

    • Phoenix44 permalink
      June 25, 2019 7:37 pm

      It’s all deliberate. Make a forecast about extreme weather and that’s what people think has happened. The BBC runs 1-2 degrees hot in its forecasts 4-5 days out almost all the time, because people look at forecasts but not at the actual temperature on a day and not at how hot it was yesterday. So the impression people have is of higher temperatures than actually happened.

  13. June 25, 2019 7:55 pm

    This warm weather is blowing from the direction of the Sahara desert. No-one is going to be surprised that the Sahara is hot in summer, and wind direction is just a standard weather variable, so what’s the issue?

  14. Lance permalink
    June 25, 2019 8:03 pm

    thank goodness they don’t live in Phoenix AZ…..!!!

  15. June 25, 2019 9:09 pm

    BBC : ‘Climate apartheid’ between rich and poor looms, UN expert warns
    .. Even if current (CO2 reduction) targets are met,
    “millions will be impoverished”,
    said Philip Alston, the UN’s special rapporteur on extreme poverty.

    How do you read that ?
    I read that as “millions will be impoverished” by trying to make CO2 reduction targets.

    Government green tinkering always introduces costs
    there are no unicorns to pay for their costs
    They tend to feed through as increased prices for everything
    ie decreased buying power for each £
    So less nurses in hospitals
    and makes the poor poorer.

    • June 25, 2019 10:54 pm

      Ha he is the same guy that make wacky claims about UK being world poverty centre
      \\ Philip Alston, UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights report on poverty in the UK compared Conservative party welfare policies to the creation of 19th-century workhouses.

      Now he reports on the enviromental crisis & climate Apartheid. //

      June 27 10:30 Geneva/9:30 UK time to 12:00 Geneva/11:00 UK time
      Professor Philip Alston will be talking live about the report : Poverty in the United Kingdom: Human Rights under Threat

      2018 tweet
      \\ Australian UN Official Philip Alston on Extreme Poverty,
      who earns around $81k to $120k (salary, equity//

  16. June 26, 2019 1:03 am

    Rahmsdorf is a genuine activist but a fake scientist.

  17. calnorth permalink
    June 26, 2019 8:51 am

    At this time of the year Parisians usually depart to the coast as I remember. I was foolishly left sitting in cold baths…in Paris. Was the same in south Holland on occasion.

  18. Pancho Plail permalink
    June 26, 2019 1:13 pm

    I have been trying hard to find any online forecasts that show 40C. The highest I could find was 38 on Friday in Rome. More hysteria from the MSM

    • Pancho Plail permalink
      June 26, 2019 1:25 pm

      Just seen BBC forecasting 42 in Turin tomorrow. Met Office shows 39

      • Duker permalink
        June 27, 2019 12:56 am

        Thats the new normal.
        Forecasts that arent reached but become part of the claim of record breaking high

  19. Phoenix44 permalink
    June 26, 2019 1:15 pm

    As a follow up, I am in SW France. Forecast was 100 degrees for today. Now the high is going to be 96. Yes, it’s hot but some way off the forecast so far.

  20. Gerry, England permalink
    June 26, 2019 1:53 pm

    Paul, have you got the minimum record for Nantes to see if that has increased to show UHI at work?

  21. June 28, 2019 6:13 pm

    Around a thousand years ago the rivers Rhine, Seine and Loire ran dry due to the extreme droughts. Nothing like that today.

    • Saighdear permalink
      June 28, 2019 6:32 pm

      What, you mean to say there was either insufficient precipitation or Snow melt, OR it was sooo Hot that the rivers dried up, yet the glaciers weren’t melting quickly enough?
      Goodness, My forefathers must have forgotten to tell me about all that – told me all about the Heat & Cold waves here in UK most of last Century, though.

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