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Meteorologist Rubbishes Extreme Weather Claims

July 4, 2019

By Paul Homewood

 

An excellent rebuttal by meteorologist Robert Endlich of extreme weather claims in the US:

 

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In describing the errors in the Fourth National Climate Assessment, ‘NCA4’, I’ll use the words from the Executive Summary which purport to link climate changes in the USA to global climate change.

Photo by Pixabay

The first claim, “The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes,“ is shown to be false, simply by examining climate records, some from the National Climate Data Center.

Tornadoes have been decreasing over the past six decades as temperatures moderate from the significant cooling of the 1940s to 1970s.  As a basic knowledge of meteorology teaches, it is the pole to equator temperature difference that drives the intensity of cold season storms and especially the spring-season storms which bring the extremely strong tornado outbreaks.

Emblematic of the 1965 spike seen in Figure 1 below, is the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak, which occurred when I was an Air Force shift forecaster on duty that day.  I clearly recollect my first glance at the weather map that day was followed with a sense of dread; I had studied and presented to my class at Texas A&M the year before on severe weather, using the Dallas Tornado of 1956 as a model to understand how the weather situation controls such outbreaks.

Endlich goes on to look at hurricanes, heatwaves and wildfires.

Full post here.

9 Comments
  1. HotScot permalink
    July 4, 2019 11:33 am

    I think there are many scientists just waiting to break cover on climate change.

    The continuing observational Vs computer generated temperature predictions are now becoming embarrassing for many.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      July 4, 2019 1:50 pm

      I hope you’re right but, given that we now set policy based on the visions of 16-year-old Aspergers sufferers who can actually see invisible gases and failed Prime Ministers with a “legacy” to cobble together (ably assisted by politicians without a scientific brain cell between them) and a small group of climate activists with their hands so deep in the public pocket you can’t see their elbows, you’ll forgive me for not holding my breath!

      I never named no names, guv. Honest!

  2. July 4, 2019 11:35 am

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.

  3. July 4, 2019 9:58 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  4. Gamecock permalink
    July 4, 2019 10:03 pm

    ‘The first claim, “The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes,“ is shown to be false, simply by examining climate records, some from the National Climate Data Center.’

    This is gibberish.

    ‘climate-related weather extremes’

    There is no such thing. Climate comes from weather, not the other way around.

    Climate is the generalized weather of an area or region. Generalized extremes doesn’t work.

    ‘examining climate records’

    There is no such thing.

    We have weather records.

    ‘Climate’ scientists have banged up the language. Not attacking Endlich, but I wish he wouldn’t use the junk scientist’s language.

  5. July 6, 2019 3:30 am

    There are at least 7 compelling observations that CO2 has little or no effect on average global temperature. http://diyclimateanalysis.blogspot.com

    Perhaps this explains why.

    Well above the tropopause, radiation to space is primarily from CO2 molecules. If you ignore the increase in water vapor (big mistake), WV averages about 10,000 ppmv. The increase in absorbers at ground level since 1900 is then about 10,410/10,295 = ~ 1%.

    WV above the tropopause is limited to about 32 ppmv because of the low temperature (~ -50 °C) while the CO2 fraction remains essentially constant with altitude at 410 ppmv up from about 295 ppmv in 1900. The increase in emitters to space at high altitude (~> 30 km, 0.012 atm) accounting for the lower atmospheric pressure is (410 + 32)/(295 + 32) * 0.012 = ~ 1.4%. This easily explains why CO2 increase does not cause significant warming and might even cause cooling.

    • jack broughton permalink
      July 6, 2019 7:55 pm

      That was the theory of global cooling in the 1970s and early 1980s, I was reasonably convinced by this back then, although I no longer believe that a single-parameter model could ever solve climate behaviour.

      I’m not sure how CO2 suddenly changed into a global-warming gas, but it certainly has magical properties!

      • July 6, 2019 10:26 pm

        JB,
        Three parameters do a pretty good job with a 98+% match to measured average global temperature 1895-2018. (click my name)

        Water vapor has been increasing, mostly due to increasing irrigation, for centuries. The rate rapidly increased around 1960. A finding of my analysis is that the WV increase has contributed about 70% of the warming since 1909.

  6. swan101 permalink
    July 11, 2019 3:15 pm

    Reblogged this on ECO-ENERGY DATABASE.

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