Marc Morano On Bad Data
July 5, 2019
Marc Morano in fine form!
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“We do not believe any group of men adequate enough or wise enough to operate without scrutiny or without criticism. We know that the only way to avoid error is to detect it, that the only way to detect it is to be free to inquire. We know that in secrecy error undetected will flourish and subvert”. – J Robert Oppenheimer.
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Reblogged this on Climate- Science.
But are politicians listening? Look at the UK parliament rushing to vote for a carbon free future. Illustrates that the tale of the gadarene swine being infected with madness and plunging off the cliff.
Spoiler alert! The following quote at the end says it all.
‘Do you get the sense that Climate Change is a lot more than about just climate?’
What you said!
Torqued up?
@3:35
Moreno makes the point that the data are wrong both ways – too hot and too cold – which is exactly what you would expect from a large data set like this. What you would also therefore expect is that the errors cancel each other out over time, and that the averages of lots of data points over lots of time actually come pretty close to reality.
The mistake that is then made is to try and “improve” the data. Notably, that has a large bias towards increasing the averages in recent times and decreasing them in older data. That is the exact opposite of what you would expect – if errors are not systematic but are random and both too hot and too cold, then “improvement” should make no difference to the averages.
This is why the tampering is almost certainly wrong and biased. It is exceedingly unlikely that there was an overall bias one way or the other in the large amounts of data collected that has no cause (Alarmists have not shown that there was a systematic problem), let alone two biases that happen to fit their theory. It is far more likely that they are adjusting the data to fit what they want – think they ought – to see, even if that is an unconscious bias.
To put it another way, the adjustments swap accuracy (produced by averaging) for precision (getting results to look the same) and then claim to have improved accuracy.
“The mistake that is then made is to try and “improve” the data. Notably, that has a large bias towards increasing the averages in recent times and decreasing them in older data.”
This is exactly what NOAA/NCDC has done for all of the official monthly data in almost every US state that were recorded by its predecessor, the US Weather Bureau. The lowering of older data is seasonal and averages about 0.8°F. This is the opposite of what one might expect to eliminate bias from the increasing UHI-effect over time.
This video is actually rather weak, focusing on the non-issue of a small amount of defective data, which any reputable data processing would shrug off with ease, though the CRUTEM (land) part of HadCRUT probably does not qualify as being reputable. Academics (CRU) doing quality control is often not a pretty sight, but the overall philosophy behind CRUTEM is sound: they rely on countries to sort out their own data, rather than the Mickey Mouse approach of everyone else, who sort it out badly themselves, with no metadata, and not separately on maximum and minimum temperatures, which are produced by different thermometers.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections.
July 2, 2019 How Plants Breathe & How Humans Shaped Their ‘Lungs’
Scientists have discovered how plants create networks of air channels – the lungs of the leaf – to transport carbon dioxide to their cells. Experts led by the Institute for Sustainable Food at the University of Sheffield revealed how plants provide a steady flow of air to every cell.
https://principia-scientific.org/how-plants-breathe-how-humans-shaped-their-lungs/
A reaction to the UK House of Commons passing a net zero directive emissions by 2050>
When will people realise that any CO2 reduction policy should also be seen in a longer-term context:
· The modern short pulse of beneficial Global warming stopped 20 years ago and recent global temperatures are now stable or declining.
· According to reliable Ice Core records the last millennium 1000 – 2000 AD was the coldest of our current Holocene interglacial and the world had already been cooling quite rapidly since before Roman times, in fact since ~1000 BC.
· At 11,000 years old, our Holocene interglacial, responsible for all man-kind’s advances, from living in caves to microprocessors, is coming to its end.
· The weather gets worse in colder times.
· The world will very soon, (on a geological time scale), revert to a true glaciation, again eventually resulting in mile high ice sheets over New York.
The prospect of even moving in a cooling direction is something to be truly scared about, both for the biosphere and for man-kind.
Spending any effort, without due diligence, let alone at GDP scale costs, trying to stop the UK’s 1% of something that has not been happening for 3 millennia seems monumentally stupid.
https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/global-man-made-co2-emissions-1965-2018-bp-data/
https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/holocene-context-for-catastrophic-anthropogenic-global-warming/