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Germany’s Energy Future Looks Bleak

July 21, 2019

By Paul Homewood

Following Adrian’s analysis, I thought it worthwhile to look at the winter figures:



Nuclear accounted for 13% in January this year, with coal/lignite providing 34%.

Solar, as in the UK, is pretty much worthless in winter months, with barely 1%.

While wind power accounted for 29% over the month as a whole, there were several days when it dropped into single figures:



There is currently installed capacity of 29 GW for CCGT, which could potentially replace the shut down of nuclear power in 2022, but this would obviously add to CO2 emissions:


With demand peaking at around 80 GW in winter, Germany needs at least 100 GW of dispatchable capacity, allowing for de-rating.

Take away nuclear, and Germany currently has 91 GW from coal, gas, biomass, hydro and oil, so capacity will clearly be tight when nuclear goes in 2022.

When coal is phased out in the 2030s, which is the plan, heaven knows what they’ll do! At best, they’ll only have enough dispatchable capacity to cover half their needs.

They might have to start praying to the wind gods!

  1. Saighdear permalink
    July 21, 2019 1:49 pm

    Aye sure…. and the when the wind DOES BLOW ( Hard or very hard) they’ll blame it on ….. ( you’ve guessed it )

    • Adrian permalink
      July 21, 2019 3:03 pm

      Is that a wind God, or the face of the BBC blowing hot air and farts?

      • July 21, 2019 5:37 pm

        ……….. doh ! climb it change , I think they’ll be calling it 0:-}

  2. July 21, 2019 2:12 pm

    At the moment, at the time of Western European Winter Peak the marginal plant is usually German coal. This means if the UK is in deficit it will be importing German coal on the interconnectors. Germany’s coal problem is a European problem and it is time that the consequences of interconnecting the European networks is recognised. No country can make unilateral decisions based on the assumption that their decisions will not impact all their neighbours and all the linked countries.

  3. July 21, 2019 2:17 pm

    I suspect that the solar figure, and quite possibly the wind one, are for metered electricity from “farms” (subsidy farms), and don’t include the essentially unknown contributions from rooftop solar and isolated onshore wind turbines, which act to reduce demand for metered electricity.

    • markl permalink
      July 21, 2019 4:47 pm

      “…contributions from rooftop solar and isolated onshore wind turbines, which act to reduce demand for metered electricity….” And almost impossible to plan for causing wasted energy and the necessity for spinning reserve.

  4. GeoffB permalink
    July 21, 2019 3:02 pm

    I know it sounds selfish, but I would like a really severe winter 2019/2020 with no wind in January, obviously little solar. Power cuts …not to serious just inconvenient…nobody dies.
    just to get a feel of what is to come if we follow Lord Deben’s plan.
    Did you see he was cleared of failing to declare his interest in Sancroft ,his daughter’s company. Surprise Surprise

    • tom0mason permalink
      July 21, 2019 5:09 pm

      I’m 100% with you there, especially for Germany.
      My hope is that Germany pursue this stupidity for many years to come, that way the financial teeth will be pulled from the EU as the decrees and mandates of the EU top official become evermore onerous.
      As a side effect German industry not being so dumb would see that it make sense to move off-shore. If the UK removes Mrs May parting vanity project (100% carbon stupid), and truly releases itself from the clutches of the EU, the UK could be the ideal place for the German industries to reset-up business.

      Vorsprung durch Großbritannien technik maybe …

    • Nial permalink
      July 22, 2019 11:57 am

      Geoff, I think it’s important that this happens sooner rather than later to open everyone’s eyes to the consequences of the current physics and engineering free green crusade.

  5. rah permalink
    July 21, 2019 3:36 pm

    And when the hammer falls it will be the fault of somebody else.

  6. A C Osborn permalink
    July 21, 2019 4:54 pm

    48 GW of installed Solar = 1%Output in January when you need it.

  7. Shoki Kaneda permalink
    July 21, 2019 5:02 pm

    They should build more Mercedes in USA. We have plenty of cheap energy.

  8. July 21, 2019 5:39 pm

    Reblogged this on ajmarciniak.

  9. July 21, 2019 7:21 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.

  10. I_am_not_a_robot permalink
    July 21, 2019 10:03 pm

    In terms of total CO2 emissions reduction Energiewende is getting them nowhere:

    • J Martin permalink
      July 21, 2019 10:35 pm

      It cost them half a trillion to get that pitiful reduction in co2 and much if the initial reduction was due to improving the old east German industry. And since most of their wind and solar was made outside Germany they probably effectively increased global co2.

  11. swan101 permalink
    July 22, 2019 11:55 am

    Reblogged this on ECO-ENERGY DATABASE.

  12. July 23, 2019 12:21 am

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

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