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Monsoon rebound prepares ground for bumper harvest

August 20, 2019
tags: ,

By Paul Homewood



As I reported last week, India’s monsoon is on track. As a result, they are now expecting a bumper crop:



NEW DELHI: The rebound in monsoon rainfall has created ideal conditions for agriculture for the rest of the year with accelerated planting and much more water in reservoirs, which officials said would lead to record food production this year.

Rainfall in August has been 35% above normal so far, which has further improved crop planting and filled up major reservoirs with 25% more water than the 10-year average.

This completes the turnaround of the farm situation that looked grim in June when authorities were planning drought-relief measures as rainfall was one-third less than normal and reservoirs were depleting at a time they normally fill up to meet post-monsoon requirement of drinking, irrigationNSE -3.64 % and power generation.


Will Also Help Rabi Crops
Now the conditions are ripe for a good harvest of the kharif, or summer-sown, crop and higher farm incomes, which in turn should boost festive season demand and to some extent revive sales of vehicles, gold and consumer goods in an economy where companies have been nervous about weak demand.


“Good monsoon is kind of passport to better harvest,” agriculture commissioner SK Malhotra told ET. “We achieved record food grain production last year. This year also, we expect the same.”

He said crop planting had accelerated in step with monsoon rainfall, which improved significantly in July and has been in a vigorous phase for three weeks.

“The deficit in crop planting is fast reducing since the last 30 days,” Malhotra said. “We see some deficit in paddy sowing only, which we expect to cover up by August end. The sowing window for paddy is till August in West Bengal and Jharkhand. We don’t see any shortfall in food grain productions this year,” he said.

It is a very common misconception here in the west that heavy rainfall is based for India, almost as if we transplant our climate onto theirs.

Anybody with the slightest knowledge of the country, however, would know that a bountiful monsoon is not just good news for farming, but as a knock on effect the whole economy benefits.

  1. August 20, 2019 10:32 am

    Reblogged this on Climate-

  2. John Palmer permalink
    August 20, 2019 10:37 am

    I blame ‘Global Warming®’ myself!

  3. bluecat57 permalink
    August 20, 2019 12:42 pm

    Oh look at that. I guess we ALL won’t starve this year. Just America.

  4. MrGrimNasty permalink
    August 20, 2019 2:21 pm

    But 6 billion people are going to die and the BBC and it’s tame XR nutter are serious……

  5. Philip Mulholland permalink
    August 20, 2019 2:58 pm

    Glad to hear this good news about the Indian Monsoon.

    I am still watching this year’s West African Monsoon with great interest.
    Here is the forward model prediction from Ventusky for 28 August 2019 Note the predicted rainfall events centred on northern Mali and also the Algerian Atlas (N.B. a week ahead from this post and the model dynamic will change in the interim).

    It is now 12 years since my 2007 note published in EuMetSat during the last solar cycle minimum.
    West African Monsoon Crosses the Sahara Desert

    This establishing pattern of meridional weather events is associated with the natural 60-year climate cycle; it was first heralded in 2005 with a change in the delta length of day (LOD) Measurement of the Earth’s rotation: 720 BC to AD 2015 Fig 17.

    • Philip Mulholland permalink
      August 23, 2019 11:51 pm

      As August progresses afternoon storm cell activity is becoming more pronounced in the central Sahara.

      On the 22 August at local sunset a major down-draft from a convection storm in the desert of southern Algeria northwest of Tamanrasset has created a dust storm or haboob. The ring of surface disturbance around the west side of the down-draft can be seen in this image:-

      Meteosat 0 degree Infrared 3.9 Western Africa 2019-08-22 18:00:00 UTC

      The effect of the dust raised by the haboob can be seen in this comparison between 22 August (before the dust storm) and 23 August after the dust storm.

      The raising of dust by summer convection storms in the Sahara is believed to have an impact on the development of Atlantic hurricanes.

    • Philip Mulholland permalink
      August 27, 2019 11:50 am

      Here are some reports of a summer hail storm in Dubai on Friday 23rd August.
      Heavy rain and hail in Dubai as freak summer storm sweeps the UAE

      Observe the overall north-south direction of the winds across the region in this Ventusky chart for Friday 23rd (the day of the Dubai storm) and note how the moisture from the Indian Ocean is being diverted west as the monsoon reaches the Gulf of Oman and converges onto the mountains of Oman on the previous day Thursday 22nd.

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