Skip to content

Global Warming Made Dorian Stronger, Say Discredited Scientists

September 5, 2019

By Paul Homewood

 

Bad weather? Blame it on global warming, say discredited “scientists”, Michael Mann and Andrew Dessler! (Note how they no longer call it “warming”, which has congenial implications):

image

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/04/climate-crisis-hurricane-dorian-floods-bahamas

 

The rest of the Grauniaid article is not worth even repeating, as it is full of the same lies we see every year, every time there is a bit of bad weather. Guardian readers naturally fall for it every time, without even thinking to question it.

But if there was any truth to Mann and Dessler’s little theories, would not we see clear proof in the actual data?

MH1851-2018

No of Major Atlantic Hurricanes – 1851 to 2018

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

According to the experts at NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, however,  there were many more major Atlantic hurricanes in the 1940s and 50s, than in the last two decades.

Data from the pre 1940s is of course not comparable, as there were no satellites or hurricane hunter aircraft around to spot every storm in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

As for the dip in numbers in the 1970s and 80s, this is a well understood effect of the AMO, which went into cold phase in those years:

 

tsgcos.corr.81.159.104.45.247.15.34.31

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/gcos_wgsp/tsanalysis.pl?tstype1=91&tstype2=0&year1=&year2=&itypea=0&axistype=0&anom=0&plotstyle=0&climo1=&climo2=&y1=&y2=&y21=&y22=&length=&lag=&iall=0&iseas=0&mon1=0&mon2=11&Submit=Calculate+Results

 

 

If the Mann/Dessler theories are correct, then sea temperatures must have been just as high back then as now.

And if they weren’t then so much for the potty theory!

We can, of course, totally discount the “wetter” storms argument. There is simply no data to prove it, mere supposition. Given the fact that their “stronger storms” argument is trashed by the actual data, I think we can safely ignore anything else they have to say.

We are well aware of Michael Mann’s unreliability as a “scientist”. Not only did he try to produce the now utterly discredited hockey stick, but he has recently lost his court case against Tim Ball, because of his refusal to divulge the data behind it.

What about Andy Dessler? He is professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, so you would assume he might know what he is talking about. As with most climate scientists though, you would be wrong.

This was what he had to say in 2011:

As you sit by the pool and sweat this summer, one book you should be reading is The Impact of Global Warming on Texas (University of Texas Press, June 2011, second edition). This book, written by a group of Texas academics, is a sober analysis of our state’s vulnerability to climate change — and the things we can do about it.

It is a particularly appropriate read as we suffer through the hellish summer of 2011. While it is unknown exactly how much human activities are contributing to this summer’s unpleasant weather, one lesson from the book is clear: Get used to it. The weather of the 21st century will be very much like the hot and dry weather of 2011. Giving extra credibility to this forecast is the fact that the weather extremes that we are presently experiencing were predicted in the first edition in 1995.

https://www.chron.com/opinion/outlook/article/Texas-is-vulnerable-to-warming-climate-2079164.php

 

And the reality?

 

canvas

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/statewide/time-series/41/pcp/3/8/1895-2019? 

Dessler’s dry summer was a one-off, and since then Texas summers have in fact been much wetter than the 20thC average.

It is also evident that there have been other periods on record, where summer droughts have been much prolonged than that single year of 2011.

Of course, in fifty years we might be looking back and agreeing how right Andy Dessler was.

But in what other discipline of science would the so called “experts” be allowed to get away with statements that flew in the face of the actual data?

24 Comments
  1. September 5, 2019 10:59 pm

    They have no evidence that man has made the seas warmer. It’s all bluster as usual.

  2. Tom Abbott permalink
    September 5, 2019 11:58 pm

    That AMO chart has a similar profile to the Hansen 1999 US surface temperature chart:

  3. Broadlands permalink
    September 6, 2019 1:26 am

    “the weather extremes that we are presently experiencing were predicted in the first edition in 1995.”

    NY Times, 1995: http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/04/world/95-is-hottest-year-on-record-as-the-global-trend-resumes.html

    The global temperatures in 1995 were warmer than in the last several years.

  4. September 6, 2019 2:01 am

    This is really disappointing. Simple physics shows that only the temperature gradient enters the Navier-Stokes equations so warmer temperatures are mostly irrelevant by themselves. If gradients are decreasing as they would if the tropical hotspot is real, storms should be getting weaker. When statistical data mining is used (as the Nature paper they reference seems to do), and it contradicts physics, one must do more work to find out why.

    • Brian G Valentine permalink
      September 8, 2019 11:33 pm

      A temperature gradient does not appear in the N-S equations, it is a momentum balance.

      A pressure gradient does appear, leaving three components of a velocity vector and a scalar pressure as variables.

      • dave permalink
        September 12, 2019 12:59 pm

        The Navier-Stokes equations were developed for incompressible fluids. They work quite well for the steady flows of the oceans. The atmosphere, however, is a compressible, generally turbulent, fluid, which is never really in thermodynamic equilibrium- a vastly more complicated problem.

  5. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    September 6, 2019 5:43 am

    You can tell climate alarmists, but you can’t tell them much.

    I think these folks have been reading Michel de Nostredame’s famous book Les Prophéties.

  6. September 6, 2019 6:30 am

    I do not trust a single thing reported in the Grauniad, which is why I do not trust anything reported by the BBC until I have checked it elsewhere.

    • Paul Reynolds permalink
      September 6, 2019 8:47 am

      The Grauniad readership is utterly beholden to the bilge the paper produces. Intellectual rigour flies out of the window in the face of unsubstantiated groupthink. Their prejudices comfortingly confirmed.

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 6, 2019 2:03 pm

        Especially as the readership is so small even including all the BBC staff.

  7. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 6, 2019 8:26 am

    Drier than average, wetter than average…it’s almost as if this “average” things isn’t what happens each year but somehow a sum of all the ups and downs over a period?

  8. CheshireRed permalink
    September 6, 2019 8:46 am

    They just roll out boilerplate claims without any substance or evidence to support them.

    ‘Climate change made the hurricane / typhoon / drought / blizzard / *insert random weather event here* worse than it otherwise would’ve been.’

    How is such a relentlessly stupid assertion even allowed?

    • dave permalink
      September 6, 2019 9:09 am

      I notice that Johnson as part of his pre-election promises is making noises about bidding for the next Climate Change junket to come to England. It is sad that he must calculate that this earns him some relief from the usual hate-blasts.

      • dave permalink
        September 6, 2019 9:25 am

        Thank you for the AMO chart. Looks as if might finally be going negative!

        Dorian was a bog-standard cyclone. It has added a lot of ‘ACE’ to the yearly number, for the simple reason that it did not wander over a major piece of land, and so it survived a long time. It was like Dennis, of a couple of years ago; thrashing around at sea doing little harm to anything.

        While Dorian was developing from a little ‘Invest’, it just missed the highlands of the Dominican Republic, which would have “strangled the baby at birth!”

      • Gerry, England permalink
        September 6, 2019 2:04 pm

        Hopefully that is just another of the Johnson lies

  9. September 6, 2019 10:40 am

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.

  10. John Cooknell permalink
    September 6, 2019 10:48 am

    Hurricane Dorian has caused extensive damage in the Abaco islands and Grand Bahama.

    Having been there 20 years ago, my understanding was these very low lying islands are sparsley populated because there is nowhere safe to shelter when the hurricane comes. Unfortunately this appears to be true.

    Most of the Bahamas people live in Nassau 150 miles to the South on New Providence island which is not damaged and is safe.

  11. It doesn't add up... permalink
    September 6, 2019 12:10 pm

    Still no sign that National Grid have submitted their final report on the August 9th power cuts to OFGEM which was due by today.

  12. September 6, 2019 12:24 pm

    Listening to Michael Mann is a sign of diminished cognitive skills. Drs. Roy Spenser and John Christy are the real thing. Here is just a little introduction to their 25 year careers together at The University of Alabama, Huntsville:
    Dr. John Christy, Professor of Atmospheric Science and Director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville; and Dr. Roy Spencer, a climatologist and Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

    • dave permalink
      September 6, 2019 1:35 pm

      Charles Darwin was also the real thing, and should be an example. He was always humble and diffident in putting forward his views. How many ‘scientists’ today would write as he did in a letter to a colleague just before the publication of ‘The Origin of Species’:

      “When I think of the many cases of men who have studied one subject for years, and have persuaded themselves of the truth of the foolishest [sic] doctrines, I feel sometimes a little frightened whether I may not be one of these monomaniacs.”

      Or, call his omission of a minor word in a sentence, “the most awful blunder”?

      Not a lot of people know that, at first, he wanted to call his book a mere “Abstract of a Theory,” as he did not think his twenty years of work on the idea was sufficient to call it anything more definite. The doyen of geologists at that time, Lyell, persuaded him that it was more than that.

  13. swan101 permalink
    September 6, 2019 10:08 pm

    Reblogged this on ECO-ENERGY DATABASE.

  14. September 12, 2019 1:25 pm

    Thorington is a 72 year old retired physicist interested in economics and politics –

    “The fact major storms are not increasing in intensity averaged over decades is another demonstration of the nonexistence of this feedback mechanism. Increasing atmospheric CO2 is not substantially changing the water temperatures enough to fuel more, and more intense hurricanes. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been rising essentially linearly with time, as shown in the graph below.”

    https://www.adividedworld.com/scientific-issues/are-hurricanes-becoming-worse-because-of-global-warming/?utm_source=Subscribers&utm_campaign=cd35214818-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f511d2125-cd35214818-242768745

  15. September 12, 2019 2:35 pm

    Thorington is saying that If storm activity does not increase then the CO2 hypothesis fails. We won’t hear this from the BBC – in truth, I doubt if they even know that!

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: