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Guardian Panic Over Svalbard–Updated Images

September 9, 2019
tags:

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t stewgreen

Note: There appears to have been some problems with accessing the graphs on the initial  post, so I have reloaded them and re-issued this as a new post.

 

The Guardian has been working itself into a frenzy about Svalbard:

image

Since 1971, temperatures here have risen by 4C, five times faster than the global average. In the winter, when the changes are more marked, it has gone up by an astonishing 7C. These are increases that the rest of the world is not expected to experience until the 22nd century. They are far ahead of most computer simulations. Yet there is still more to come. On current trends, Svalbard will hit 10C of warming by 2100.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/jul/01/its-getting-warmer-wetter-wilder-the-arctic-town-heating-faster-than-anywhere 

 

 

Sure enough, if we look at the temperature record at Svalbard Airport, which only has data since 1978, the temperature increase is clear, certainly a good 4C:

 

sval

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_SV000001008_14_0_1/station.png

 

However, what about prior to 1977?

If we look at other nearby sites in the region in Novaya Zemlya, Iceland and Norway, we see that temperatures in the 1970s and 80s were much lower than beforehand, notably between 1920 and 1960:

 

station

 https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_222207440000_5_0_1/station.png

aku

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_IC000004063_14_0_1/station.png

jan

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_NOE00105477_14_0_1/station.png

 

In 1922, the American Meteorological Society knew all about just how warm it was in the Arctic, as they published this in their Monthly Weather Review:

 

image

image

https://journals.ametsoc.org/toc/mwre/50/11

 

There is in fact one station on Svalbard with a much longer record than the airport’s, at Barencburg:

 bar

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/tmp/gistemp/STATIONS/tmp_SV000020107_14_0_1/station.png 

 

Whilst 2016 was an unusually mild year, other years recently have not been much warmer than the 1950s.

Last year , for instance, the annual mean temperature was minus 2.38C, compared to minus 2.58C in 1957.

I’m not sure that a rise of 0.2C in sixty years is anything to panic about.

26 Comments leave one →
  1. September 9, 2019 12:14 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.

  2. J SHARP permalink
    September 9, 2019 12:17 pm

    Another thermometer located at an airport . . .

  3. The Old Bloke permalink
    September 9, 2019 12:21 pm

    Interesting that they rebuilt the runway in Svalbard to allow bigger aircraft and establish an air cargo bridge. Tourist flights are now common place to Svalbard and 737 aircraft are now common place. Every year there is an increase in traffic. So, the temp gauge at the airport shows temperatures rising in line with the increase in traffic movements. WOW! I wonder what on earth could be causing that? No, me neither:

    Svalbard Airport, Longyear (IATA: LYR, ICAO: ENSB; Norwegian: Svalbard lufthavn, Longyear) is the main airport serving Svalbard in Norway. It is located 5 km northwest of Longyearbyen, and is the northernmost airport in the world with scheduled public flights. The first airport near Longyearbyen was constructed during World War II. In 1959, it was first used for occasional flights, but could only be used a few months a year. Construction of the new airport at Hotellneset started in 1973, and the airport was opened on 2 September 1975. It is owned and operated by state-owned Avinor.

    In 2014, the airport handled 154,261 passengers.[5] Scandinavian Airlines operates daily flights to Tromsø and Oslo in mainland Norway. Lufttransport provides services to the two other airports on Svalbard: Ny-Ålesund and Svea, using Dornier Do 228 turboprop aircraft. There are also regular charter flights.

  4. Pancho Plail permalink
    September 9, 2019 12:24 pm

    Paul, the links to the .png files are all returning “not found” on my Chrome browser.

    • Mike Jackson permalink
      September 9, 2019 1:16 pm

      And a blank space on Safari.

    • September 9, 2019 2:03 pm

      Firefox works well, and I find it user friendly

      • Hoong-Wai permalink
        September 9, 2019 2:17 pm

        The files are not accessible to anyone else – they’re in a “tmp” folder. You will need to download the files from NASA and upload them to your blog.

      • September 9, 2019 4:52 pm

        I’ve reloaded tham – is it OK now?

        Thanks

        Paul

      • Lance Wallace permalink
        September 9, 2019 4:20 pm

        I amusing duckduckgo and all .png links return “not found”.

    • Lyapunov permalink
      September 9, 2019 2:46 pm

      Paul, I am using Firefox and the link returns “not found”

  5. andrewpuskinhotmailcom permalink
    September 9, 2019 12:39 pm

    So how can 4 pc rise be explained not because of climate change? AR

    Get Outlook for Android

    ________________________________

  6. Carbon500 permalink
    September 9, 2019 12:48 pm

    Thanks for the interesting 1922 newspaper clip, Paul. It makes for interesting reading, and as a follow-up I’d like to add this:
    A reader’s letter in the Sunday Telegraph, page 23, on Tuesday, October 1st 2013 from Captain Derek Blacker RN (retd), Director of Naval Oceanography and Meteorology 1982-84 noted the following:
    “I was a meteorologist during the Seventies when glaciers in Europe and other continents in Europe had been growing for the previous ten years, and pack ice had been increasing during winters to cover almost all of the Denmark Strait between Iceland and Greenland. Scientists were then warning that the Earth could be entering another ice age.
    The current deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have conveniently overlooked this. Before insisting that humans have been the main cause of global warming an explanation of this apparent anomaly should be promulgated.”
    In connection with this letter, a look at information supplied by the Icelandic Meteorological Office is interesting. During the first two decades of the twentieth century, ‘heavy sea ice was quite common along the coasts of Iceland, but in the 1920s a drastic change occurred. Sea ice along the coasts of Iceland became an uncommon characteristic and almost a forgotten phenomenon around the middle of the century. An abrupt change occurred in the mid-1960s. Heavy sea ice distribution occurred almost each year following, but since 1980 widespread and long-lasting sea ice off Iceland took place (sic) at rather irregular intervals’.
    Some of the important fishing areas around Iceland are located on the shallow banks off the coast of Greenland at about 63ºN. These banks can be ice-covered during most of the year, causing difficulties for the fishing vessel. Ice edges form ‘tongues’ which extend like giant hooks when viewed from a satellite, extending for many kilometres (over 100km for example) and curving back towards the main ice sheet. These ice tongues, which can change rapidly from one day to another, are particularly important for fishing vessels operating near the ice edge. In some cases the ice tongues can turn back towards the main ice pack and vessels near the ice edge can be trapped. Consequently trawlers need accurate ice edge maps updated every day.
    The conclusion from all of this? Reality trumps the environmental fairy tales yet again.

  7. Green Sand permalink
    September 9, 2019 12:55 pm

    Svalbard!

    ‘Ship with Climate Change Warriors caught in ice, Warriors evacuated’

    “Arctic tours ship MS MALMO with 16 passengers on board got stuck in ice on Sep 3 off Longyearbyen, Svalbard Archipelago, halfway between Norway and North Pole. The ship is on Arctic tour with Climate Change documentary film team, and tourists, concerned with Climate Change and melting Arctic ice. All 16 Climate Change warriors were evacuated by helicopter in challenging conditions, all are safe. 7 crew remains on board, waiting for Coast Guard ship assistance.

    Something is very wrong with Arctic ice, instead of melting as ordered by UN/IPCC, it captured the ship with Climate Change Warriors.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/08/ship-with-climate-change-warriors-caught-in-ice-warriors-evacuated/

  8. rah permalink
    September 9, 2019 1:37 pm

    There will always be cherries to pick and the Guardian will always be picking them.

  9. swan101 permalink
    September 9, 2019 3:31 pm

    Reblogged this on ECO-ENERGY DATABASE.

  10. Athelstan. permalink
    September 9, 2019 4:17 pm

    The graun, decline into a kidults comic and does greta edit it now?

  11. J Burns permalink
    September 9, 2019 6:27 pm

    The Guardian are alarmingly running out of alarming hyperbole. Hopefully when they finally do it’ll be an extinction level event.

  12. September 9, 2019 7:23 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate Collections.

  13. Bruce of Newcastle permalink
    September 9, 2019 11:40 pm

    Svalbard is in the middle of the northern Atlantic Ocean. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is at peak. As you can see from the graph when it falls it will do precipitously.

    Plus that thermometer is at an airport affected by UHIE, and the global temperature peaked recently due to the most active Sun in nine millenia.

  14. September 10, 2019 8:47 am

    Svalbard airport according to Berkeley Earth:
    http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/stations/159256

    • shep permalink
      September 10, 2019 11:01 am

      Quality Control: Regional climatology outliers 101?

      QC seems to have rejected a lot of the colder outliers, except this is the arctic surely it’s bound to have lots of natural short periods of deep cold.

  15. September 10, 2019 9:56 am

    ‘Adj – homogenized’? No thanks :/

  16. Phoenix44 permalink
    September 10, 2019 6:45 pm

    Seems to be a local phenomenon and thus not a big surprise models don’t predict it.

    But to be clear: ifor my hypothesis is SvalBerden will warm by one degree and it’s warms by four degrees, my hypothesis is WRONG. If the Guardian claims the rise makes the hypothesis “more right” they are talking utter garbage.

  17. George L permalink
    September 10, 2019 7:30 pm

    Sea Level Rise
    Obama’s bought a $15M house by the sea.
    They want you to worry about “climate change” and sea level rise but apparently they are not.

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