Skip to content

Are Category 5 hurricanes such as Dorian the ‘new normal’?–Asks Michael Mann

September 11, 2019

By Paul Homewood

 

I see Michael Mann has been up to his tricks again!

 

 

 image

Category 5 Hurricane Dorian tore through the Bahamas like a buzz saw last week, killing dozens of people and leaving a ruined, broken landscape.

It was the fifth Category 5 hurricane in the past four Atlantic hurricane seasons, joining other monsters such as Matthew, Irma, Maria and Michael, each of which left its own trail of death and destruction.

Is this part of a new trend? Could this be the "new normal"?

"I fear it’s worse than that," Penn State University meteorologist Michael Mann said. "As we continue to warm the planet, hurricane intensities will increase further. There’s no new normal. It’s an ever-shifting baseline toward more destructive storms as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels and load the atmosphere with carbon pollution."

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/09/11/category-5-hurricanes-storms-like-dorian-new-normal/2275423001/

 

 

Fortunately we don’t have to rely on Mann’s propaganda, as instead we actually have the facts:

 

image

image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Category_5_Atlantic_hurricanes

 

While he makes a big play about the five Cat 5s since 2016, he forgets to mention that there were none at all between 2008 and 2015.

It is not uncommon to have two such storms in the same year, as we did two years ago with Irma and Maria. The same thing happened in successive years in 1932 and 1933.

And there were six Cat 5s altogether in the 1930s, compared to five since 2010. (Touch wood, there will be no more this season- the current outlook is hurricane free).

And, of course, this all assumes that we are comparing like with like. How many Cat 5s were missed in the pre-satellite period? The National Hurricane Center have attempted to re-analyse storm data from the past, but large gaps in knowledge still remain.

This is what leading hurricane researcher Chris Landsea, of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, found in his 2012 paper, “On the Classification of Extreme Atlantic Hurricanes Utilizing Mid-Twentieth-Century Monitoring Capabilities”:

image

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00420.1

To re-emphasise:

“It is found that likely only 2 of these 10—both Category 5 landfalling hurricanes—would have been recorded as Category 5 hurricanes if they had occurred during the late-1940s period.”

 

I strongly suspect that of the five recent ones since 2012, Matthew, Irma, Maria, Michael and Dorian, only Michael would have been recorded as a Cat 5, as it was the only one to make US landfall at peak strength.

Michael knows bugger all about hurricanes, or little else about climate for that matter. His claim to fame is his widely discredited Hockey Stick, itself based on shonky statistics..

Yet the media regularly turn to him for any matters related to climate change. It was only a few months ago that he appeared on the BBC’s Attenborough climate change programme, telling us how storms, floods and wildfires were worse than ever before. They were not and Mann had no especial knowledge about any of them.

If the BBC or US Today want to know about hurricanes, why don’t they talk to proper experts in the field, such as Chris Landsea?

Maybe, it’s because they won’t get the answers they want.

27 Comments
  1. The Old Bloke permalink
    September 11, 2019 10:17 pm

    Dorian was only a Cat 5 storm at or above 10,000 ft, (probably) like they all are.

    • dave permalink
      September 12, 2019 8:07 am

      The OFFICIAL, WORLD-WIDE definition of Categories of cyclones is based on sustained wind speeds measured 33 FEET above the ground or sea.

    • JKintheUSA permalink
      September 12, 2019 3:04 pm

      There are dropsonde measurements of eyewall wind speeds of 180 MPH at the surface for Dorian.

    • George L permalink
      September 12, 2019 8:35 pm

      Measurement of Top Speed
      Surely finding where the top speed in a hurricane covering hundreds of miles in area and several miles in altitude is more exact now than 50 or 100 years ago.

  2. September 11, 2019 10:29 pm

    Reblogged this on Climate- Science.press.

  3. September 11, 2019 11:58 pm

    You nailed it: it’s because they won’t get the answers they want.

  4. Nancy & John Hultquist permalink
    September 12, 2019 1:56 am

    Mann has to perpetuate the global warming myth.
    The Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University (Penn State) would implode if he admitted being a fool.
    At some point he will go quietly away and hope no one remembers his contribution to the ruination of science.

  5. Broadlands permalink
    September 12, 2019 2:23 am

    “I fear it’s worse than that,” Penn State University meteorologist Michael Mann said. “As we continue to warm the planet, hurricane intensities will increase further.”

    I fear that the well-funded Professor Mann (who just lost his libel case because he wouldn’t let the court see his data!)…hasn’t considered what, if anything, he might suggest we do about it. It’s all too easy to create scary climate futures, with or without adjusted data. It’s not so simple to deal with those model forecasts for those seven billion stakeholders who will need energy.

    • September 12, 2019 12:55 pm

      ‘*We* continue to warm the planet’ – there’s the standard propaganda sound bite.

  6. Gamecock permalink
    September 12, 2019 2:35 am

    A dumbass hasty generalization fallacy. It is starkly juvenile.

  7. David Kendrick permalink
    September 12, 2019 4:42 am

    Saffir-Simpson scale was post storm damage assessment by which it was possible to gauge an ESTIMATED ground wind speed not predicting damage by a known wind speed at height or otherwise which is why every single report has been wrong. not least because the storm rides upon an inversion.

    • Rah permalink
      September 13, 2019 6:48 am

      Wrong.

    • rah permalink
      September 14, 2019 1:44 pm

      Please read them NOAA definition. Could not fully respond before because I was on the road: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php
      “The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures. In the western North Pacific, the term “super typhoon” is used for tropical cyclones with sustained winds exceeding 150 mph.”

      So Saffir-Simpson is a speed measurement of wind to estimate potential damage. Not a derived at by assessing the damage.

  8. JimW permalink
    September 12, 2019 7:09 am

    Irma Cat 5 ? You’re ‘aving a larf! It collapsed and was not more than tropical storm as soon as it hit S West Florida. NHC/NOAA are peddling a load of rubbish.

    • dave permalink
      September 12, 2019 8:42 am

      The alarmists can not score “a hit, a palpable hit!” with their silly hurricane stories.

      One thing you can not fool people about is wind. We have too much personal experience of it.

    • dave permalink
      September 12, 2019 9:50 am

      A pompous headline in the form of a speculative musing usually means you can safely ignore the main body.

  9. George Lawson permalink
    September 12, 2019 9:32 am

    I wonder whether Michael Mann can tell us exactly how he would prevent a Cat. 5 hurricane happening next year or in ten years time!

  10. john cooknell permalink
    September 12, 2019 10:10 am

    Dorian was a damaging hurricane that destroyed buildings and caused death on the Abacos islands,

    The Abacos islands were at inherently high risk as they are very low lying (40ft max elevation) and infrastructure and buildings were poorly hurricane resistant.

    Why the high risk was allowed is a political question for the Bahamian government in Nassau, as well as the Abacos island council.

    The Abacos island council have sought independence from the Bahamas since the UK government and Parliament granted the Bahamas independence in 1973. .

    • john cooknell permalink
      September 12, 2019 10:24 am

      You must also remember that the Bahamian politicians and government officials will have learnt their trade from the Mother of Parliaments.

      So in best Whitehall tradition the Central Bahamian governrment will have devolved responsibility for hurricane preparedness to the Abacos island council, then gave them no money to do anything about it!

      Grand Bahama is different, Americans and their money have been allowed to dominate the economy, my observation is hurricane preparedness in Grand Bahama was good.

  11. September 12, 2019 12:08 pm

    My favorite stooges are Moe, Larry, Curly and Shemp. My least favorite stooges are MIchael Mann, Greta and Bill Nye. It’s almost as if the Three Stooges actually became college professors and instead of creating Swinging the Alphabet, they created the Hockey Stick.

  12. Chilli permalink
    September 12, 2019 12:53 pm

    A welcome breath of common sense from the WMO head – but he still talks nonsense like the following:

    “In parts of the globe, living conditions are becoming worse”
    [ with the implication this is due to man-made climate change]

    I’d like to see evidence of living conditions becoming worse by any metric anywhere in the world ( other than due to the effects of wars or corrupt governments which have nothing to do with climate). In peaceful countries life expectancy, child survival rates, crop yields and personal wealth are all through the roof – despite natural decadal fluctuations in the climate.

  13. swan101 permalink
    September 12, 2019 6:14 pm

    Reblogged this on ECO-ENERGY DATABASE.

  14. Rah permalink
    September 13, 2019 7:00 am

    Mann demonstrated he doesn’t know squat about hurricanes after Harvey. Joe Bastardi and Roy Spencer took Lil Mikey to the woodshed when he made claims about the conditions which caused that hurricane to loop and stall in the Houston area. Bastardi had forecast the storm was going to loop and stall 3 days before it happened. Of course Joe and Roy have degrees in meteorology. Mann doesn’t. Roy and Joe have studied hurricanes. Mann has not.

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: